I don’t think he’ll ultimately win the nomination. I think the world is still generally boring and Bush will win out, but if he does, I think he’ll do badly in the general election but people will say he performed surprisingly well in some areas, allowing the GOP to maintain some grim hope that their party is not completely down the shitter and out of touch. This is a party that motivates dumb people using lies and anger and there is a lot of that in reserve. Trump is the most different candidate we’ve had in a long time because he’s a billionaire and can afford to self-finance the entire thing. Even Romney wasn’t rich enough to do that. I never gave much thought to the typical lineup of flash-in-the-pan crazy candidates because they will always run out of money, always. Trump is the one guy since Perot that won’t, and he’s not trying to run as an independent from the beginning, so he can get at least a good chunk of the 30% crazification factor voters right from the start
This.
He has a low plurality in polls, not a majority. What Trump has basically done is consolidate the Crazy fringe of his party under one banner, while the remaining majority are divided among a large field. While against all expectation there doesn’t seem to be anything he can do to make his numbers go down, I don’t think they are going to go up either. I doubt they will ever break 30%. The best he can hope for is to be one of three or 4 candidates going into a brokered convention, at which point the party establishment will show him the door.
Has Trump said anything at all about having to give up control of his financial empire if he is elected?
Why would he? He doesn’t have to give up control of his financial empire. Has anyone done the ‘blind trust’ bit since Bush?
All of them except Obama…and he avoided the need because his financial “empire” consisted of investments in low-yield U.S. Treasury Bonds.
Clinton did, Obama didn’t.
If only. Right behind him are Carson and Cruz now, while Trump didn’t gain or lose from the debate. You finally get to Bush at only 9 percent, and after him are Huckabee, Walker, and Fiorina. Looks instead like all he’s done is energize the crazies and pull them away from Bush.
Long way to go, yes, but it just got longer for whoever passes for an adult there these days.
I seriously doubt it will ever happen but it is not impossible, and the polls today are unlikely to reflect what happens in Nov. 2016.
I wish some people would respond in this threadbefore declaring impossibilities based on current polling.
I stand by my statement. As much as we might wish otherwise, the probability that Trump will be the nominee is much less than 0.01%. My money’s still on the longshot Romney who has a better chance than most of the 17 declared candidates.
This comment totally confuses me. Do you think belief that Trump nomination is impossible is based on his “only” being 25% in current polls?
I told others in my circle that Trump was not going to make it because it was likely that a few candidates will drop of the race when the voting starts and the votes will then likely go to the less crazy candidates. But I wonder now. Finding that the current top three in the polls are from the crazy group makes me then wonder now if Trump has a shot to become the Republican candidate. (And still not likely to win in the general).
It looks to me that what would normally happen would be for a good number of the candidates to drop as soon their money ran out as it was one of the best yardsticks to figure out that there was not much support to continue anyhow. But this is not like previous elections, many candidates now have wealthy sugar daddies and groups that will make that yardstick not as limiting as before. With many big egos in the race and with money it is possible that we will see a lot of Republican primaries with no clear leader or with no “moderated” Republican candidate in the lead.
In past elections candidates found sooner that they had no more support and then they closed shop and then supported the moderate candidate that was more likely to win in the general election; but what would happen if it is the less reasonable or uncompromising the ones that are still leading? It is then possible that Trump would be the one to get the votes of Carson and Cruz once they finally drop of the race while the moderates remain in second and third dividing the vote as they also will see no clear reason why to drop of the race.
No. I don’t consider anything in politics to be impossible. He is capable of running over all of his competition and winning the nomination on a populist basis. I am not predicting that, but impossible it ain’t. He said he’s willing to spend one billion dollars. I don’t believe he will but if he did he would wipe out all his opponents. Bush would be emasculated by a man with more monetary resources. He’s eating into Paul’s fanbase. Not enough people want anyone else in the running right now enough to make a difference. In the highly unlikely event he does that I predict a draft Mitt movement at the convention.
FWIW, the Koch Brothers and their super-rich friends are coming up with a Billion Bucks, on top of whatever other money is raised. OTOH, I don’t think Trump has any rich backers besides himself and, pompous bluster aside, is not rich or liquid enough to come up with an entire Billion without severely disrupting his financial empire.
But even if he did, hatred against him is mounting. Right now he’s an amusing distraction. If he actually won the nomination and campaigned in the general he’d be abandoned and turn into an utter laughingstock and he knows it.
Quantum physics teaches us that nothing is impossible, but a Trump nomination is way below any “reasonable doubt” threshold.
OTOH, Betfair has him at over 8% to be the nominee. Maybe I should put my money where my mouth is and sop up several hundred easy quid.
The fact that each party has a outlier wildcard leading in their respective parties demonstrates the public’s disdain for both parties.
BS is just a DNC plant. He’ll roll during the convention just like the backroom boys at the DNC have instructed him to do.
Trump is now polling in positive numbers with REP women
His stand on II is winning him the Black vote. Every II who gets a job takes one away from a Black looking for the same job.
Independants are the 20-30 somethings who just want a damn job to make some damn money to move out of the parents basement! They see Trump as a hard nose businessman who creates jobs. They are not going to vote for the avowed Socialist BS. Independants are at heart Capitalists.
Hillary is blowing up any hope of getting the nomination let alone the Presidency.
Last night I saw Ed Henry ask her some tough questions about her email scandal. Her reaction? She put on the weirdest ‘bobble-head’ attitude and tried in vain to use a talking point to evade Ed’s questions. Earlier she gave a speech and actually made a joke about her having her server professionally wiped.
I predict she’ll get a short phone call from the DNC office telling her it’s time to “step aside due to health reasons”.
What do you base that on?