What will happen in Gaza now that Trump won?

[Banquet_Bear]

…I take no pleasure in writing this post.

First off: it’s pretty important to understand, before we look at what could happen under Trump, what is going on, right now, under the Biden administration.

Here is an open letter from the Inter-Agency Standing Committee, 15 UN and Humanitarian agencies that include (among others) OCHA, Oxfam, UNICEF and WHO.

@IASC

The situation unfolding in North Gaza is apocalyptic. The area has been under siege for almost a month, denied basic aid and life-saving supplies while bombardment and other attacks continue. Just in the past few days, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed, most of them women and children, and thousands have once again been forcibly displaced.

Hospitals have been almost entirely cut off from supplies and have come under attack, killing patients, destroying vital equipment, and disrupting life-saving services. Health workers and patients have been taken into custody. Fighting has also reportedly taken place inside hospitals.

Dozens of schools serving as shelters have been bombed or forcibly evacuated. Tents sheltering displaced families have been shelled, and people have been burned alive.

Rescue teams have been deliberately attacked and thwarted in their attempts to pull people buried under the rubble of their homes.

The very last fire engine in the north was destroyed a couple of weeks ago. Civil defence has ceased to operate. That means when a building is bombed, and there are people under the rubble, there is nobody around to rescue them. The three remaining hospitals are barely functioning. Hospital staff have been detained and disappeared, killed, hospital infrastructure damaged.

And they are clearing out the refugee camps. One by one. Reporting is very limited. Because Israel has killed most of the reporters. But the pattern is clear. Daily massacres, forced marches to the south.

The goal is to empty the north. Don’t believe me?

Here is what Elad Goren, a senior COGAT official, said last week on the record.

@Elad Goren

When asked why aid was not being delivered to other parts of the north — like Jabaliya, a crowded urban refugee camp where Israel is staging an offensive — he said the population there was being evacuated and those who remained had “enough assistance” from previous months.

In other areas like Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya, Goren claimed falsely there was “no population” left.

Israel is falling far short of a US ultimatum to surge aid to Gaza

The reason why they aren’t letting aid through to the north any more is because they are (falsely) claiming the population has mostly left. They are already acting as if the north is depopulated.

More from the IASC:

@IASC

And we have received reports of civilians being targeted while trying to seek safety, and of men and boys being arrested and taken to unknown locations for detention.

Livestock are also dying, crop lands have been destroyed, trees burned to the ground, and agrifood systems infrastructure has been decimated.

The entire Palestinian population in North Gaza is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence.

Humanitarian aid cannot keep up with the scale of the needs due to the access constraints. Basic, life-saving goods are not available. Humanitarians are not safe to do their work and are blocked by Israeli forces and by insecurity from reaching people in need.

In a further blow to the humanitarian response, the polio vaccination campaign has been delayed due to the fighting, putting the lives of children in the region at risk.

Bolding mine.

I think its very important to understand as we transition from the Biden administration to the Trump one that humanitarian agencies on the ground are basically begging for the carnage to stop, because the entire population in North Gaza is at imminent risk of dying.

So will much materially change with Trump in charge?

I don’t think so. This will continue. I think North Gaza will be cut off from the rest of Gaza and annexed. I think we will see permanent outposts built in Rafah and throughout the rest of the south (we are already seeing some being built) and what remains of Gaza will become effectively a concentration camp. And the thing is, I think that would have probably happened under Harris as well.

Further from the report:

@IASC

And this week, the Israeli Parliament adopted legislation that would ban UNRWA and revoke its privileges and immunities. If implemented, such measures would be a catastrophe for the humanitarian response in Gaza, diametrically opposed to the United Nations Charter, with potential dire impacts on the human rights of the millions of Palestinians depending on UNRWA’s assistance, and in violation of Israel’s obligations under international law.

Let us be very clear: There is no alternative to UNRWA.

The blatant disregard for basic humanity and for the laws of war must stop.

International humanitarian law, including the rules of distinction, proportionality and precautions, must be respected. IHL obligations do not depend on reciprocity. No violation by one party ever releases the other from its legal obligations.

Stop the assault on Palestinians in Gaza and on those trying to help them |...

There is much, much more at the link, along with the latest Flash Update with more details on what is currently happening on the ground:

Humanitarian Situation Update #233 | Gaza Strip | United Nations Office for...

But it’s the last bit I quoted, about the decision by Israel to ban UNRWA, ignoring the UN Charter, constant and ongoing breaches by Israel of the Geneva Conventions and International Humanitarian Law, that I think will ultimately be the biggest difference between what a Democrat lead administration would do and what the Trump administration will do.

The Democrats would at the very least pay lip service to international law. Trump?

He’s going to smash it.

Institutions will get broken. I think the United Nations is at risk. International Humanitarian Law will get de-legitimized. Rulings from the ICC and the ICJ will be ignored. New alliances will get formed. The next decade is going to get very dark, very quick. Israel have been working for a very long time to break UNRWA, to destroy the very concept of a “Palestinian refugee”, and with Trump in power, I fear they will finally get their wish.