What will happen in the next 10 weeks?

[flurb]

@Sam_Stone

@flurb

A few things we can be relatively certain of:

He will pardon himself and his family members of any and all federal crimes.

Which federal crimes? You can’t blanket pardon someone for crimes that they have not been charged with, can you?

That’s what Ford did for Nixon.

@Sam_Stone

He will fire masses of people in the federal government he considers insufficiently loyal. This will have to effect of letting him vent his spleen as well as leaving the government crippled for Biden.

Are you talking about political appointees? Trump can’t just fire regular employees without cause. He can fire political appointees, but that gives Joe Biden the chance to appoint his own. Which he’ll do anyway.

As alluded to above, Trump issued an executive order on October that could reclassify thousands of civil service positions as “policy-making” positions subject to termination at-will. He set an effective date of January 19, but he can move that up at any time with another executive order. I’m sure it will be litigated if he attempts it but there’s no guarantee the courts would rule against it and these employees would be in limbo in the meantime.

@Sam_Stone

He will expropriate as much taxpayer money as he possibly can to himself, his family and his companies. I expect he will relocate himself and the White House staff to Mar a Lago at exorbitant rates.

No he won’t. He isn’t ‘relocating the White House’ in two months. Can’t be done.

All he has to do is tell the White House staff to go to Mar a Lago. The government already has contracts in place with Trump’s resorts for housing federal employees at inflated rates. Would he have access to all the White House infrastructure? No. Would he care? No.

[GIGObuster]

@Sam_Stone

There will be no juvenile antics like removing the ‘W’ from every computer keyboard as Clinton’s outgoing staffers did.

Trump is infamous for moving money from children’s cancer charities and veterans to his own business. I expect what he will do is move a lot of his “defense” funds to his business too. Hard to do that with art.

And after what he did with some pieces of art in his possession, you bet there will many looking to prevent him from from doing it so, I would not be surprised that a lot that has value will be quietly replaced with replicas.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-07/trump-s-chief-of-staff-mark-meadows-infected-by-coronavirus

[Little_Nemo]

@Sam_Stone

There will be no juvenile antics like removing the ‘W’ from every computer keyboard as Clinton’s outgoing staffers did.

That didn’t happen. What happened was incoming Bush staffers made up stories about how the outgoing vandalism supposedly carried out by the outgoing Clinton staffers. It has harassment but it was Bush staffers harassing Clinton staffers not the other way around.

Bob Barr, a Republican Congressman, apparently wasn’t let in on the plan. He took what the Bush staffers were saying seriously and ordered an investigation so the Clinton staffers could be punished. The resulting investigation showed that most of what the Bush staffers claimed wasn’t true. No charges were brought and the cost of the investigation was significantly higher than the cost of any damage that was found.

Of course twenty years later you remember the allegations but you apparently have forgotten that they were discredited. And I’m sure there are plenty of other people who “remember” history the same way.

[GIGObuster]

@flurb

All he has to do is tell the White House staff to go to Mar a Lago. The government already has contracts in place with Trump’s resorts for housing federal employees at inflated rates. Would he have access to all the White House infrastructure? No. Would he care? No.

More than once I did menation one pet theory of mine on why I think Trump is like the old times dictator of Portugal, President Salazar. In his latest years Salazar was told that a lot of his orders were taken care of when in reality they had been dismissed early or not sent away, nobody told him so he was blissfully unaware or forgot later about the unfulfilled or incompletely done orders. And so, he could not do much damage with his erratic or crazy orders as he had been disabled by a stroke in his last years.

I do think a that lot of Salazar moves were made by staffers to deal with a lot of Trump’s incompetent orders and his requests of late. Doing what you say here is IMHO a likely thing to happen. With him caring or not.

[Locrian]

I’m betting he’s already signing contracts to host his own show on OAN starting next week.

[GIGObuster]

Uh, I got the wrong link on my previous post to the last one, here is another link to Trump’s way with his art of the steal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-06/trump-ended-2018-france-trip-having-art-loaded-on-air-force-one

[Ann_Hedonia]

I think it’s going to be epic. It’s the series finale of the four year run of the world’s worst reality show.

What’s going to be fun is watching all these asses that’ve been excusing him for four years. The ones that said “Oh, that’s just Trump being Trump.” “That’s just locker room talk.” “Oh, the President was just joking, duh, liberals have no sense of humor.” “He’s a new kind of leader. He likes to shake things up. That’s what the people wanted.”

Right now, Trump has his little core army of batshit crazy. Rudy. Corey Lewondoski. Pam Bondi. Matt Schlapp. Matt Gaetz, Trump Jr, Eric , Ivanka, Jared, Jim Jordan, Brad Parscale , Ric Grennell and probably a half dozen more at least whose names escape me. They’ll be with him until the bitter end.

Then there’s what the refer to in North Korea as the wavering class. They are all in Trump lackeys but lackeys that might draw the line somewhere. Kayleigh, Meadows, Pompeo, Cruz, Graham, anyone with Huckabee in their name, a bunch of the conservative Senate Republicans.

People that have defended Trump to the end before. They’ll probably stick with Trump as he goes to the Supreme Court to try to get mail-in voting declared unconstitutional because the Constitution clearly states that the election is to be held the first Tuesday in November. (No kidding, I’ve seen that one floated before. I think they are going there)

I didn’t list Bill Barr because he’s getting fired. I’ thinking that the wavering class loyalists might try to jump ship around the time that Trump names Guiliani AG and puts Grennell in charge of the FBI and they start trying to indict and arrest Comey, Fauci, Hillary Obama and the Bidens.

I think the career DOJers will keep this plan from gaining traction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rudy draws up some insane indictments and Grennell tries to get the FBI to enforce them.

Last night, I caught Laura Ingraham on Fox ( I hardly ever watch Fox really, but I seem to have a talent for surfing there during epic moments )- and she was praising Trump’ accomplishments to the heavens and telling him that when the time came he needed to step aside with the grace and dignity that he had brought to the Presidency. I almost peed my pajamas. Then she told him the liberals said he would go crazy and refuse to accept defeat, and challenged him to prove them wrong. She must’ve drawn the short straw, it was a message geared straight to Trump, she wasn’t even pretending not to be talking straight at him.

Then the first thing the next morning Trump started shit-tweeting.

I think - and, yes, I hope - that things get so batshit crazy that it exposes all the gaslighting and “It’s the Democrats that want to destroy Democracy” projection of the past four years. He’s mostly lost Fox and moderate Republicans, they’re still pandering a little with the “Count all LEGAL votes” crap.

But they won’t stick with him during his bid to have the Supreme Court declare all mail-in votes illegal cause they weren’t cast on Tuesday. The wavering class will, but they will leave before the DOJ / FBI takeover.

Trump’s going all the way.

If you think he’s not, remember he probably could’ve avoided that entire impeachment thing by going on TV and saying “ I apologize to the President of Ukraine and his staff , our foreign service personnel, the American people, and most of all, Joe and Hunter Biden. I’m a businessman, not a politician and you all know I live for making deals. This election is important to me and I got carried away. “

Think of how impossible that sounds. No way he could do that. I think acknowledging defeat would be on the same level. This is a man who is still fuming because in 1987 someone told him he had short fingers, and he’s still trying to prove to him that his fingers aren’t short. At the moment, there are probably at least 100 million people worldwide making fun of him for losing an election. I don’t think is going to admit he lost and he’ll do ANYTHING to not lose.

[susan]

The Bidens should change the mattresses, just in case. Past behavior is a good predictor of subsequent behavior.

[Sam_Stone]

@GIGObuster

As for going away, that would be nice but this is Trump, I will expect him to remain a loud troll that will be impossible to ignore, then making those investigations against him a reality after Trump leaves office. Because I do think many “moderate” Republicans will be the targets of his petty revenges.

Oh, I agree with that. Trump will leave office legally and on time, but spend the rest of his life bloviating about how unfairly he was treated. He may even become a leader of the crazy right, and try to build some sort of Trumpist movement. That will fail.

[GIGObuster]

@Sam_Stone

Oh, I agree with that. Trump will leave office legally and on time, but spend the rest of his life bloviating about how unfairly he was treated. He may even become a leader of the crazy right, and try to build some sort of Trumpist movement. That will fail.

Uh, I do hope that, but you are overestimating a lot of the American people on the right. Chances are that Trump will have enough influence to get unhinged Trump like candidates to win primaries against many Republicans that did not kowtow to him when he lost.

The hopeful thing is then to see a lot of them eventually lose when people do notice how crazy they are, compared to the Democrat in the general elections for the house and senate. Unfortunately, IMHO there will be a significant number that will succeed. Making the Republican party even more crazy.

[paulmarkj]

flurbGuest

5h

A few things we can be relatively certain of:

He will pardon himself and his family members of any and all federal crimes.

Can he be pardoned from crimes not yet charged? For example, if he owes millins/billons to cerain banks, surely he can’t pardon himself from the crime of not paying it back?

[China_Guy]

Trump is financially bankrupt. He can’t get a loan or a foregiveness on what he owns as a ex president. He will sell pardons to any one with a suitcase full of cash.

The only two countries that might take him in are Russia and N Korea. Air Force One is gonna take an unplanned flight somewhere around 20 Jan. Otherwise, Trump spend the rest of his miserable life in court at best and in jail at worst. Jail might not be so bad because then he could see his kids on a daily basis.

[flurb]

@paulmarkj

Can he be pardoned from crimes not yet charged? For example, if he owes millins/billons to cerain banks, surely he can’t pardon himself from the crime of not paying it back?

Whether he can pardon himself is untested. However, it’s generally accepted that it is not necessary for an individual to be charged with or convicted of a crime to be pardoned. Ford pardoned Nixon, who had not been charged with anything, of any crimes he may have committed in office. Carter pardoned all draft evaders, many of whom had not been officially charged with a crime.

[silenus]

@paulmarkj

Can he be pardoned from crimes not yet charged?

Yes, but he can’t be pardoned for future crimes or ongoing crimes. So the timing would have to be perfect, and the Republicans have never shown any sign of talent in that area.

[Ann_Hedonia]

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he didn’t give himself a blanket pardon. But I disagree about the likelihood of him needing it.

It’s going to be difficult to charge him with crimes over anything he did in office. The situation is unique, there’s no precedent. There might be some conspiracy charges, but we all know there’s a reason Trump has never been criminally prosecuted, and it’s not that he’s not a criminal. He’s good. He knows how to shield himself.
And frankly, he’s not so much corrupt as he is a con man. It’s hard to nail him, his deals aren’t quid pro quo. He gets your quid, but you aren’t seeing any quo. It makes it harder to prosecute when the deals don’t complete.

And honestly, as much as I’d like to see him hauled away, I really don’t want to set the precedent of arresting political leaders after they are voted out.

But I seem to think he’s going to cause a lot of trouble in the next couple of months. I’m hoping he goes totally crazy and I think the people that think he’ll just nuisance tweet a bit but ultimately accept defeat are acting like they’ve never met him. I think he’s going to cause some big-assed problems.
Maybe they can talk him into leaving early, which may be the best option for Republicans ( Frankly, the best option for Democrats is if babyTrump pees on the GA senate race by signaling his supporters not to show up, because Senate Republicans didn’t help him steal the election.) Maybe they’ll have to article 25 him. How long would it take the house majority and 67 senators to impeach him if they were all on board.?

But you know that look Trump got after his presser, when everyonev said he looked defeated. That look wasn’t defeat, it’s revenge.

[Kimstu]

@Little_Nemo

That didn’t happen. What happened was incoming Bush staffers made up stories about how the outgoing vandalism supposedly carried out by the outgoing Clinton staffers.

Some of it happened, according to a June 2002 Government Accounting Office report requested, as you noted, by Bob Barr. However, it appears that the pranking/trashing was neither a new phenomenon for presidential transitions, nor anywhere near as drastic or costly as media stories suggested.

The Office of White House Counsel arranged for interviews with a total of 78 EOP staff, and an associate counsel to the president was present during our interviews with EOP staff. Of the 78 staff, 23 worked for the EOP before January 20, 2001,4 and 55 began working for the EOP on or after January 20. The interviews with EOP staff were conducted between June 2001 and May 2002. Because these interviews were conducted between 5 and 16 months after the transition, we recognize that recollections could have been imprecise. It was not possible to determine whether, in all cases, the reported incidents had occurred, when they occurred, why they occurred, and who may have been responsible for them. […]

Results

Damage, theft, vandalism, and pranks did occur in the White House complex during the 2001 presidential transition. Multiple people said that, at the beginning of the Bush administration, they observed (1) many offices that were messy, disheveled, or contained excessive trash or personal items; (2) numerous prank signs, printed materials, stickers, and written messages that were left behind, some of which contained derogatory and offensive statements about the president; (3) government property that was damaged, including computer keyboards with missing or damaged “W” keys and broken furniture; and (4) items that were missing, such as office signs, a presidential seal, cellular telephones, doorknobs, and telephone number labels. In addition, documentation provided indicated that some broken, missing, or possibly stolen items were repaired or replaced at the beginning of the Bush administration. Several EOP staff said they believed that what they observed during the transition, such as broken furniture and excessive trash left behind, was done intentionally.

Some former Clinton administration staff acknowledged that they had observed a few keyboards with missing “W” keys and some prank signs at the end of the administration. However, the former Clinton administration staff we interviewed also said that (1) the amount of trash that was observed during the transition was what could be expected when staff move out of their offices after 8 years; (2) they did not take the items that were discovered missing; (3) some furniture was broken, but not intentionally, before the transition and little money was spent on repairs and upkeep during the administration; and (4) many of the reported observations were not of vandalism. […]

As we have reported, we believe that sufficient, competent, and relevant evidence exists to support our conclusion that damage, vandalism, and pranks did occur during the 2001 presidential transition, and we have presented this evidence in our report. However, we believe it is also important to recognize that corroborating evidence was not provided for all observations, and that definitive evidence regarding who was responsible for the incidents observed generally was not provided. […]

Five EOP staff told us they observed damage, vandalism, or pranks in the White House complex when they worked there during past transitions. Regarding the 1993 transition, an EOP employee said that she observed five desks containing prank pictures of former Vice President Gore with written messages on them and a banner on a balcony. In addition, two EOP staff (a different employee for each of the following observations) said he or she observed 1 to 2 poster-sized signs, and 5 to 10 missing office signs. Another EOP employee showed us writing inside a desk that was dated January 1993.

Seven EOP staff who had worked in the White House complex during previous transitions made observations comparing the condition of the office space in 2001 to previous transitions; six said that the condition was worse in 2001 than previous transitions and one said that the office space was messier in 1993 than 2001.

[kayaker]

Is there anything he can do to further tarnish his presidency? There’s a lot of copper in the walls of the white house.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@puzzlegal

Yeah, he doesn’t pay his debts. I don’t see him pardoning a ton of people.

Trump is nothing if not vindictive and it takes almost nothing for him to feel that way towards someone.

So, he will not pardon people because he thinks they are swell buddies of his. He has no loyalty at all towards others. He will pardon people only if it helps him directly or if he thinks it will infuriate people he dislikes even more.

And yeah, my money is on him leaving the country. He cannot pardon himself out of state crimes and I would not be surprised if the New York AG (at least) will be camped outside the White House on January 20, 2021 with indictments in hand.

[flurb]

@Whack-a-Mole

And yeah, my money is on him leaving the country.

Where would he go? Who would have him? I keep hearing that he’ll flee to Russia, but why would Putin take him in? He’s a steel-eyed realist, why would he antagonize the incoming Administration to no discernible benefit for Russia? If he does take Trump in, it would likely be just so he could see what price he could get to sell him back to America.

[Whack-a-Mole]

Putin would do it just to piss off the US. Edward Snowden is still in Russia. A former president in exile there would be a perpetual thorn in the side of the US and a blot on the history books forever.

And Putin might ask Trump to bring some intelligence information with him in exchange for asylum. I have no doubt Trump would happily do so (and there is absolutely nothing to stop him doing so).

For Putin it is a relatively low cost. Set Trump up in a nice dacha on the Black Sea with some staff and creature comforts. Costs Russia a few tens of millions of dollars. Chump change for what Russia got in return and by doing this for Trump Putin sends a message to other world leaders that there is a place to go and live in comfort if they play ball.

It’s really a great investment for Russia.