Reading the thread about which Democratic candidate has the best chance of winning in 2020 has me thinking about the voters who actually decide elections. It’s not the people who have voted Republican every election going back to Nixon or who have voted Democratic every election since LBJ. Focusing exclusively on the people who make up one or the other of those two groups seems to be a good way to lose an election. It seems to me the swing voters fall into four groups.
People who typically vote Republican but don’t show up every election.
People who typically vote Democratic but don’t show up every election.
People who sometimes vote Democratic, sometimes Republican, and sometimes don’t vote.
People who sometimes vote Democratic, sometimes Republican, sometimes third party, but always vote.
For the first three groups I think voting third party is functionally the same as not showing up to vote. A fifth group would be people who have never voted at all.
ISTM that as an overall strategy, the Democratic candidate should try to discourage turnout by people in the first group, encourage turnout by people in the second group, and try to convince people in the third and fourth groups to vote Democratic. Which of these strategies do you all think the 2020 Democratic candidate should focus on?