What would be the best strategy for the GOP to win against Obama in 2012?

Great Debates
1

My sleep deprived theory…

You need to get centrist voters who voted for Obama to switch, just energizing the conservative base is not enough, especially since the stuff that energizes the conservatives tends to scare off moderates. But you can’t get too liberal or the core conservatives will stay home or vote for some Tea Party muppet.

So you…
Pick the most centrist candidate possible. Preferably someone with good credentials in the areas of military. Obviously it should be a white male, preferably a bit older than Obama.

Pick one or more policies that are popular with or important to centrists that Obama has failed to deliver on. It does not matter that much if it’s not popular with core conservatives. My suggestions would be:

  • End DADT. If the candidate has military credibility this will be easier. The message could be something like “I don’t have to like their lifestyle choice, but I have to respect the committment that they’ve made to their country. Anyone willing to die for this great nation deserves that respect”.

  • Legalize marijuana. This should be easy really. You can make it about individual freedom or you can make it about how it will help the economy (allowing more taxt cuts!). Or you can just be honest about it and say that the scientifi evidence shows it is much less dangerous than alcohol, our prisons are over crowded with non-violent offenders and everyone smokes pot anyway.

Stay away from the stuff that will scare off centrists. Tend towards “It’s up to the state to decide” as much as possible. In fact, a decentralising message of more power to the states is probably a good idea overall.

Also stay away from the stupid “he’s a muslim/terrorist/communist” stuff. Attack him on mishandling the economy (too much spending!) and weakening your military power “We don’t negotiate with terrorists!”. Paint him as dabbling and a talker, not getting things done, but distance yourself from the right wing crazies.
Better ideas?

2

They could find a reasonably intelligent, well spoken, dark horse, with no record of his/her political philosophy, who has wealthy friends.

3

From what I’ve seen and read about, the man who seems closest to the list is Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico. It seems like he’s getting a lot of interest, at least from pundits. I believe the Atlantic ran an expose on him this month. Seems like he would be a formidable challenger, and meets a lot of your criteria. I’ll see if I can post more about him to support that assertion–truth be told, I still don’t know a lot about him.

4

Hope the economy stays bad or gets worse. If that happens, they have a chance…otherwise, their best bet is to run a patsy and wait for the next election.

-XT

5

I think it’s going to be difficult getting them to vote for a dark horse. I’m not even sure they’d vote for a white, intelligent, well spoken horse. I think the candidate has to be human.

Getting someone intelligent and well spoken isn’t really a ‘strategy’ as much as a ‘good idea every time’, although recent elections seem to suggest it’s not actually a must. Same with having money, that’s pretty much always a good idea.

6

Although states can and do change, it seems that in the last 3-4 election cycles the dems have carried the west coast, northeast and northern midwest giving them a total of 252-260 electoral votes. So they only need one more large state (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina) or a collection of small states (Nevada, New Mexico & Colorado).

I believe Kerry lost Ohio by about 150k votes, and he lost the southwest by about the same number of votes. With the anti-immigrant extremism among the current right the southwest should be harder for the GOP to carry.

So that means they have to carry both Ohio & Florida. But even then if they lose enough SW states it won’t matter.

So from an EV standpoint it should be hard for the GOP in 2012. With the alienation of latino voters and young voters, the swing states/areas they need are getting harder and harder to carry.

Or just blame the unemployment crisis on Obama. That’ll work.

7

The main thing the GOP needs to do is NOT have Sarah Palin or John McCain anywhere in the picture. It would be a sure loss.

8

Anybody but McCain, Dole, Newt or Palin

The way things are going, all that would be required of anyone else is that they have a pulse

9

This. Dodge as many “wedge issues” (like marriage equality or marijuana) by saying it’s not the federal government’s place to way in in such manners and they’re best handled by states.

10

But would that alienate conservative voters who want stuff like a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage?

But even then, it’s just a chance. What further actions would they have to take?

11

You’re not against gay marriage in this scenario.

12

I know. I’m just questioning whether Republicans “abandoning” core Republican “values” is what’s going to win it for them in '12, especially with so much emphasis on them from the Tea Party movement and such.

13

They are already doing it. Attack and obstruct everything he does or tries to do, whip up fear, anger and bigotry with “hot button” issues like gayness, non-whiteness, non-Christianness and use terms like “nazi” and “Socialist” liberally (no pun intended).

If necessary, CREATE controversy…invent a “Mosque at Ground Zero” and hammer away at it.

Distract, distort and deny when it comes to the economy, since you have no new, revolutionary policy to offer, only the same old shit that we let you do for years and which resulted in disaster.

Blame Obama for everything, even those things which YOU caused. If you repeat something often enough, a lot of people will believe it. (hint, use his name and words like “big spender”, “Antichrist”, “Muslim” and “dictator” in the same sentence as often as possible. Doesn’t matter what the other words are.)

And be sure to have “hot button” ballot measures in place in key states to bring out the religious right vote. Keep those mass emails reporting on the loss of religious liberty and perks for welfare mothers under Obama coming!

May sound cynical, but it’s what I’ve seen done over and over and have no reason to think they won’t take the same approach this time (hell, already ARE, as I mentioned).

This time though, it could get tricky; many voters are getting fed up with such dirty politics and are demanding real answers on real issues (jobs and the economy). And it may prove challenging to walk the line between appeasing the Tea Partiers and not alienating the moderate Republicans and Independents needed to tip the scales. The TP folks you’ve funded and manipulated so beautifully to attack Obama could end up backfiring on you; splitting the vote and handing the Democrats the biggest victory in ages.

OR they could morph into a party which actually represents a majority of Americans and has a viable economic plan. NAH! :wink:

14

I think the Republicans have to realize that “we’re not the Democrats” is not enough of a strategy. They need to figure out what it is they stand for and offer it as an alternative. They need to start saying what they’ll do if they regain the Presidency or a majority in Congress.

15

Presents a huge problem when what you propose to do is what you DID for 6-8 yrs and the results are apparent. Fortunately for them (and unfortunately for most of us) they have a standing base which will gladly overlook this glaring flaw and vote for them blindly. Their challenge is picking up enough of the wafflers to win w/o alienating too many of the blind base. Might be tricky. I certainly hope so.

16

Corporate America needs to continue withholding their profits by not hiring anyone to keep the economy on the skids. At the same time they should take advantage of the recent SCOTUS decision and spend a few profit bucks claiming it’s all Obama’s fault. The electorate will fall for it.

17

The Republicans can’t play to the center in 2012 because the base is now in open revolt against Republican centrists. The Tea Partiers hate the center and they hate the establishment, so any establishment figure like Romney or Huckabee or Pawlenty will have to run far to the right not to get knocked off. Look at Bob Bennett or Charlie Crist, two Republicans who score over 80% on the Conservative Purity Test, who got primaried by Tea Party candidates. Those two, and others, are textbook conservative candidates who simply weren’t products of the Tea Party, and so were unacceptable.

The Tea Partiers and the center are totally disjoint sets, and playing to one actively alienates the other. Any 2012 candidate is going to have to simply choose one or the other and hope that the economy still sucks and that Democratic disillusionment with Obama keeps the left at home.

If it were me, I’d grab a couple Tea Party planks like anti-health-care-reform, never say a bad word about the Tea Party, and then run for the center, planning that some portion of the TPers would hold their nose and vote for me to get Obama out.

If I survived the primaries, that is.

18

The coming mid-terms will probably drive the 'Pubs in one direction or another, if it doesn’t destroy them. But the current party may not be recognizable 2 years from now. If they turn left or right, there’s a good chance of a three way election, which puts everything up in the air.

Stoneburg, do you know what a ‘dark horse’ candidate is? It’s hard to tell with you.

19

Why would they change from their current approach? Republicans have now achieved a nearly unprecedented advantage in the congressional generic ballot. Nate Silver says a 10 point GOP lead is probably an outlier at this point but could easily be reality by election day if the numbers stay on their current trajectory. Odds the GOP controls the House is nearly 80% on Intrade. Odds the GOP gains control of the Senate, once thought nearly impossible, is now about 24% (1 in 4).

Their approach is WORKING and I see little reason to think they’ll move from it. In fact I see little reason to think the GOP won’t double down. If they take the house, as they likely will, there’s going to be a congressional investigation every time Obama steps out to have a smoke. I think they’re mostly honest, but I can’t guarantee there’s not one person in the administration that hasn’t f-ed up on their taxes at some point.

If I were Boehner, I’d just gavel the session open then adjourn for the next 24 months (OK, not literally). Work up an absurd budget proposal then when the Senate and Obama balks say, “Well, looks like Democrats aren’t willing to help out the American people.” Just sit there and block everything, then let Obama take the fall for nothing having gotten done it 2012.

Congressional Democrats have already demonstrated their willingness to cave to a Republican MINORITY, how much of a fight do they think they’re going to bring to a Republican majority?

20

Of course, there are some huge potential pitfalls for the GOP in this plan. For one thing, the public might blame the Republicans if two years after voting them in, everything has gotten worse. Especially if making things worse is their actual plan. Also, they can’t run a “generic Republican” in every election. They’re already purging their moderates in favor of insane ideologues. If they ramp up the pressure even farther, Basil Marcineaux.com might be a primary winner.

Lastly, though, what happens if it works? Exactly what will the Palin/Bachmann administration do when they take over the country with unemployment pushing 15%? Pass a major capital gains tax cut and buy stock in Fox News and ammo companies, so they can at least retire rich? Start a war with Iran? Repeal health care reform, and pass tax breaks for the rich, then try to pretend that the trillions added to the long-term debt outlook don’t exist?

Hopefully, the option of cynically putting the party’s lust for power ahead of the interests of the country is less appealing when they actually face the prospect of being held accountable. There’s some sort of self-correcting mechanism in the system.