Are there any scenarios where it would be feasible for the government to reinstate the draft? I understant that it’s unlikely that it will be reinstated in the near future. By what size would the Army need to be increased and how much would recruitment need to decline to make a draft a a viable option for the Pentagon? If the draft where do be reinstated how long would it take to begin providing soldiers? Does the Selective Service tried to predict what percentage of men inducted would seek deferments, be found unfit, evade, etc. I’m not asking how likely a draft is, I’m asking what would need to happen for the government to seriously consider bringing it back?
See http://www.sss.gov/seq.htm especially the first and last line items:
#1 “A crisis occurs which requires more troops than the volunteer military can supply. Congress passes and the President signs legislation which starts a draft.”
#6 “According to current plans, Selective Service must deliver the first inductees to the military within 193 days from the onset of a crisis.”
Most likely, it’ll be if we send troops somewhere overseas where the population doesn’t want us there but due to pure pigneadedness and the need to save face, we find ourselves unable to leave.
But we all know that can’t happen.
That’s 193 to deliver the 1st inductees to boot camp right? When basic training (& whatever other training they need to be of use the the Army) is factored in how much time does that equal? Is 193 days a realistic number? How do they factor in men who’ll seek deferments, won’t qualify, etc? And the Selective Service sends the notices to the address you registred with? Don’t most men not bother to tell the SS when they change their address? Wouldn’t that make getting inductees to report to MEPS within 10 days very difficult?
Are you really anticipating Bush reinstating the draft?
I’ll make you a bet, here and now, witnessed by the entire SDMB (or at least, those who read this thread).
If the draft is reinstated before the inauguration of the next POTUS on January 20-something, 2008, I will Fed-Ex, to your home in Schenectady, NY, 5 dozen ears of Illinois sweet corn. If there is no draft, you can Fed-Ex to me some Schenectady-area agricultural product.
Since we obviously can’t shake on it, one of our esteemed GQ moderators will be the witness for us.
Do we have a bet?
Under the present setup, if the SSS takes around 193 days for the first inductees it will take about a year before significant numbers of troops could be trainied and transported into combact.
That shows you how ridiculous the whole idea is and how ridiculous these present draft fears really are.
How can you have a national emergency and wait a year for reinforcements? It’s like calling 911 and saying, “Could you please send an ambulance next Thursday”.
Registration needs to be suspended to relieve these completely unfounded draft fears.
Once everything is settled down, then I think we should re-do as follows. Conduct the birthday lottery, bring the lucky “winners” in for a day or two of medical and mental tests, classify and be done with it. That would shorten the time IF bodys were ever really needs by maybe 4 months.
Or perhaps one level higher – tell the boys in December they will be going to boot camp next summer and once a month guard meetings for a year.
As a Vietnam era draftee, I can understand how distastful this might be – but its about 1/5th what my generation had to go thru.
The Pentagon’s top generals and admirals have said time and time again that they don’t want draftees. They’re inferior to volunteer soldiers, because being conscripts, their morale is never going to be higher than “really, really shitty.”
Unless you see a headline that says “China announces plans to invade the United States in 2006,” then don’t worry about it too much.
[ul][li] Today, we have an all volunteer military or a better term is a professional military. Even during the days that the draft was being used, there was a stigma applied to non-regulars. Having served at that time, let me assure you military types are much happier without draftees.[/li][li]The weapons of today reduce the need for bodies (that doesn’t refer to dead ones).[/li][li]The draft age population is getting so large that there is no way that anything close to a fair draft. Exemptions to the draft aren’t necessarily to discriminate against those drafted; they are a means of whittling down the pool of eligible candidates. [/li][li]Note that duckster’s cite mentions that a draft will be called for during a time of crisis but as pointed out sets a timetable that would not work in time of crisis. IMHO that means they are not serious about ever having a draft. [/li]Many of us, during the last draft, volunteered, believing it was better than being drafted, getting married, going back to school, going to Canada, or shooting ourselves in the foot. :p[/ul]
HeyHomie: I don’t claim to speak for RealityChuck, but I think he was referring to past quagmires, not necessarily future ones.
Can a non-US citizen be in the draft? Is there some sort of incentive, such as, a person with an immigrant visa can get their green card faster?