–bolding mine.
Hardly 72 hours into The Demented Orange Clown’s presidency and you’re already a master of strident New Speak (“alternative facts” I think you call them). Impressive. Though I have more than a feeling that this is not going to end well…for anyone.
I’m not a puppet. I’m not a puppet. You’re the puppet.
Enjoy.
I also started donating to close Congress seats based on this group which locates local close districts that could be swung with some out of district help.
They have an interesting definition of “close”. Alaska at-large? The R beat the D by 14 points. UT-4, Mia Love won by 12 points. CO-3 went for the R’s by 14 points and CO-6 by 9. Spend your money how you like, but I have a hard time seeing this group doing much but wasting it on lost-cause races.
Their definition is a 15%-or-less margin. Dems need to win 80% of these races in order to flip the House.
Ambitious? Sure. I appreciate your advice that Democrats shouldn’t be ambitious, and I appreciate your labeling it a lost cause; you continue to show such concern for us poor leftists.
That’s me, full of concern for poor lost souls. 
In all seriousness, I’m not trying to shit all over your “WhatarejegonnaDO?” threat, but the goal set out on the OP was “to make sure that in 2 years Trump is facing a solidly democrat congress and senate.”
Are there people here that think that’s realistic? Because even the Democrat in charge of electing Dems to the Senate don’t think that it’s realistic. If so, I’m intrigued by those people, because it seems like the same sort of delusion that led so many to be convinced that HRC was going to win for sure.
My first post was highlighting the sort of challenges they face in flipping the Senate in 2018.
Anyways, thanks for the clarification on the 15% threshold. “Ambitious” is a good word for it.
It’s a big challenge. Is that what you meant, rather than something like ‘this looks so hard you poor liberals shouldn’t even bother trying’?
Flipping the Senate in 2018 seems as doomed to failure as the efforts to recount WI / PA / MI, convince Trump electors to go faithless, challenge the certification of the electoral college vote, or secede California. If you guys want to expend your time, money, and energy on it, go for it. You might just shock the world and pull it off.
What else would we do? Just give up and not try to elect as many Democrats as possible?
ETA: As delighted as I’d be if you took that approach …
You could focus your efforts where they make sense. Maybe this next cycle, instead of spending lots of time, money, and energy trying to save Manchin, Heitkamp, and other Senators in deep red states, there are some governor’s races in swing states that would provide a better return on your investment. Maybe you should look at state legislator races, or, as Sam Lowry is, marginal House districts.
My only point was that you’ve got finite resources, and spending too many of them trying to flip the Senate next cycle seems like a bad plan. There are much better options.
Those are all the same goals – “saving” Manchin, Heitkamp, and others will be necessary to flip the Senate. Getting people motivated to flip it also gets Democrats to vote for other races. This strategy complements a strategy to get more Democratic governors and local positions elected – it doesn’t conflict at all.
I see it as hearkening back to Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy, which was very successful in 2006. We should be challenging every single statewide race, and almost every other race that’s not something like 90-10. Getting more Democrats to vote always is good, in both the short and long term.
Fair enough. I’m sure Orrin Hatch’s 2018 opponent will need all the cash you guys are willing to donate to him / her.
Okay, I’m convinced to stay home and do nothing. Well done!
Good. At least one of us has accomplished something for 2018.
Not even close. Flipping the senate only requires a lot of people to vote which is going to happen. It does take enough people to vote a certain way, but that has happened and I’m sure will happen at some point in the future again. And 2 years is a long time for people to get motivated, or change their positions. This isn’t the same as a recount effort with no standing, navigating the electoral college to do something it’s never done in a system designed to put obstacles to it happening, or hoping either the UN takes over the US or civil war. Seriously, comparing the likelihood of a senate flip with those other things isn’t remotely in the same league, let alone the same sport.
Don’t make the mistake of confusing temporary victory with electoral certainty.
I’m not confusing the two. My point is that the math of this particular senate class in this particular year makes it difficult. The Dems need a net gain of 3 seats. Barring some additional resignations or deaths, there are only 8 pick-up options at the moment. The best bet is in Nevada. After that, things get very difficult for the Dems. Their next 3 best chances are probably Arizona, Texas, and Utah. If your plan is “win 2 out of 3 senate races in Arizona, Texas, and Utah” (and you’re a Democrat), it’s probably not a good plan. The last time each of those states elected a Democrat was 1988, 1988, and 1970.
On the defense side of the ball, they’ve also go to defend 10 Dem seats in Trump states.
What Am I Going To Do? Probably not much except donate money – which is more than I usually do. Usually I just vote.
I just made my first contribution to the ACLU -right here- and a couple weeks ago honored a friend’s request for a GreenPeace contribution as their birthday gift.
I’ll try to donate every month. Planned Parenthood. ACLU. Newspaper subscriptions. SDMB. Environmental organizations. Good websites.
My credit card bill and my retirement fund will get put on hold for awhile, because I don’t want to live in a world of “alternative facts.”
Wow! I’m impressed by your dedication to the cause. I can’t think of a single politician, party, or activist group that I feel strongly enough about donating to that i’d be willing to suspend my retirement savings or debt payments.
45 in a row! If you count Cleveland twice.
There was virtually no chance of the House flipping to the Republicans in 1994, either.
Do it man! Orrin Hatch’s opponent will be delighted with the campaign contributions.