IIRC, Johnson tried to get another election back in August or maybe July. Parliament did not agree to one.
As I understand the situation, there are essentially three sides to this tug-of-war:
Brexit no matter what
Brexit, but only with a good deal
Bremain
Johnson seems to be in bloc 1 and Corbyn in bloc 2. I don’t know if the last one has any leader. I also don’t know what the relative numbers in Parliament are, but I’m pretty sure that #3 is the largest bloc, possibly even a majority. I think the real problem is that these blocs cross party lines, so it’s hard for the members of a bloc to get together and agree to a strategy.
The LibDems (leader Jo Swinson), SNP (leader Nicola Sturgeon, parliamentary leader at Westminster Ian Blackford), Greens, Plaid Cymru and handful who left either Tories or Labour over the issue, are remainers without cavil, but they together might muster barely 60. The numbers are here.
All but a handful of Labour MPs are in their heart of hearts remainers, so are a fair few Tories, but feel bound by the referendum result, and so the argument has been whether or not to go for a second referendum, or at least to tie down the diehard Brexiteers so that they can’t engineer a no-deal exit. Labour has been arguing over whether it’s better to go for a general election (hoping for a Labour government) or a second referendum (before or after they hope they could do a better deal).
There has been much talk of a single-issue multi-party alternative government to try to take over simply to push through a second referendum, but it’s by no means clear there would be a majority, nor who would lead it, since the LibDems wouldnt support Corbyn for it, although the convention would be that as Leader of the Opposition he should have first crack at an alternative if there is a vote of no confidence.
There is a YouTube channel, TLDR news, that has a whole slew of videos explaining Brexit and a lot more on what the current PM and his party are doing to try and preserve the “Exit by October 30th, no ifs, no ands, no buts” meme.
I agree it is obviously the case that the future is unpredictable. Do you think populism and nationalism make war and human misery more or less likely?
“The year is 2192. The British Prime Minister visits Brussels to ask for an extension of the Brexit deadline. No one remembers where this tradition originated, but every year it attracts many tourists from all over the world.”
Yes, these things take time, even if the mood shifts decisively towards a break-up.
To go back to the OP, the Guardian has been producing a useful infographic/decision tree on what might happen next, at each twist and turn of events. This morning’s is here.
Sorry if I’m hijacking a bit, but doesn’t an MP (or Congressman, state assemblyman, or the like) derive his or her power to represent constituents with the bureaucracy from his or her power to vote, which the Sinn Fein MPs won’t ever exercise? Why should the Ministry of Silly Walks care what the MP says in a letter or phone call on behalf of a constituent if the MP can’t ever vote down the Ministry’s budget?
In practice, that’s sure to be part of it, but most local issues won’t be taken to a vote in Parliament. Not everything will come down to an exercise of power, sometimes knowledge will be enough, or publicity. If there’s a local dispute, often the involvement of the MP and/or local media can lead to a resolution.
This sort of thing is a big part of the job of MPs, and is one reason it’s rather irritating to see people complain that MPs aren’t in Parliament all the time - they have other, more important things to do.
Also, as Baron Greenback said, the Sinn Féin MPs do have offices in Westminster, so can bring any concerns to the attention of other MPs there, which may or may not be dealt with. In the specific and unusual situation of Northern Ireland, Parliament will probably pay more attention to them than they would if my local MP didn’t take her seat, as the corner of Nottinghamshire is unlikely to cause major international issues, or secede from the Union.
In short, they have somewhat more soft power than you might expect due to the unique situation. There’s a hell of a lot of compromise (often unacknowledged on both sides) in how Northern Ireland is dealt with, because no-one wants a return to terrorism. Well, at least no-one in Parliament.
ETA I don’t think it’s a hijack, although it’s not my thread, as the whole NI situation is a massice part of what’s making Brexit so difficult.
American senators and representatives (especially representatives, since they’re generally closer to the people) play a similar role in looking out for the interests of their constituents, and greasing the wheels of bureaucracy as needed. But I’ve never heard any American complain that their congresscritters don’t spend enough time on Capitol Hill; rather the opposite: They complain that they’re spending all of their time in Washington, and not paying attention to what’s happening at home.
On the matter of the Sinn Féin MPs, I do wonder: If the question of Northern Irish reunion with the Republic were ever to come up directly in Parliament, what would they do? It’d be kind of absurd if such a question were to come up, and to fail because the people who feel most strongly about it refused to vote. But it’d also be absurd for them to swear fealty to the Queen specifically for the purpose of renouncing that fealty. My guess is that some sort of informal agreement would be reached to allow them to vote on that one measure without swearing fealty, but I don’t know how much leeway exists for that.
If Northern Ireland ever were to leave the UK, it would almost certainly be as a result of a referendum, and the Commons votes would presumably be close to unanimous. The consequences of it happening or not happening based on a vote so split that the 7 Sinn Féin members could hold the balance don’t bear thinking about.
There is a convention known as “pairing”, where MPs that can’t attend the Commons for whatever reason will arrange with an opposing MP that neither will vote. This is another convention that’s come under pressure in recent times, as mentioned on the Wiki page. But for a major constitutional change such as a nation leaving the UK, I would expect that all members would attend and vote, health permitting.
