What's Hillary's deal? Finally, a theory that makes sense

Great Debates
21

[QUOTE=Koxinga]
Why? He was in the Clintons’ inner circle for quite a long time, IIRC. His little peccadillos were hardly the most eyebrow raising for the White House of that era. (Hint: I’d think twice if offered a selection from Bill’s humidor.)
[/QUOTE]

I don’t care about his peccadillos. I care more about the fact that he’s in the business of triangulation and selling stories. I think he’s probably pretty pragmatic, but is also very much about where his next meal is coming from. Whether it comes from helping campaign X, or selling sensationalistic story Y, has never much mattered to him. I read his stories with an extra large pinch of salt, knowing that they are equally likely to be (respectively): (a) actual leaks from a campaign; (b) politically-hired hatchet jobs: or (c) senstationalistic political journalism.

22

[QUOTE=5-4-Fighting]
And don’t forget the delusion necessary to stand by your husband after he embarasses you globablly. I don’t really care that he got a bj, but he continued to lie to her and she believed him publically until well after the truth came out. It almost feels like she did it because staying with him was better for the presidential she knew she’d mount eventually but lied about for years.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t believe for a minute that she ever swallowed his story. I think she stayed with him because she thought she’d have a better chance to be president herself if she did than if she left him. She’s had her eye on this run since Bill’s first run, her every move has been made with that in mind.

23

[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
Finally, Clinton believes she can beat McCain in November and Obama can’t. She sees Obama as another Stevenson, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry. And she’s Bill Clinton and Lyndon Johnson. She’s hoping that enough other people will see this and decide it’s better to win with her than lose with Obama,
[/QUOTE]

*This * I agree with - and this is the reason she will not be able to win in November, and the crux of the reason she has gained 14 superdelegates to Obama’s 84 since February. She is not her husband, however, vicariously living through him for all those years in the White House makes her think she can run the country. I do not believe she can. I am not dismissing her as a simpleton, I’m just saying she is not the right candidate to be the prez. All of this is my opinion, and if we look at how she has run her campaign, and how bama has, the truth has been written on the wall for a long time.

24

Is it really?

Just to present the full picture…

You have the pledged delegates, who are honor- but not legally-bound to vote for their candidate on the first ballot. I’m presuming that they will do so without significant defections. The superdelegates can make up their own minds and at any time, but many of them have already endorsed one candidate or the other. I presume that those who have already declared their choice won’t change their mind.

Now, a quick look at the numbers, taken from DemConWatch.

Of the 2826 pledged delegate slots decided upon, 1490(52.7%) will be awarded to Obama, and 1336(47.3%) to Clinton. To secure a majority among PDs, she needs 71.3% of the remaining 408 PD slots still unassigned. The highest prevalence of delegates she has ever achieved in a state has been 77% in Arkansas. Next highest is 60% in New York. So, she’ll have to secure and maintain an average higher than she has achieved in all but 1 of the 42 contests to date. So, it seems to me that Clinton is very unlikely to get a majority of pledged delegates. Speculatively, let me grant her 53% (i.e. Obama’s performance to date) of the remaining delegates. That means that Obama will end up with 1682 PDs and Clinton with 1552 PDs after the last state contest.

Of the 794 superdelegates, 495 have declared their support for a candidate. 237 for Obama, and 258 for Clinton. Clinton will need 214 i.e. 71.5% of the remaining 299 SDs to secure 2024 total delegates, in order to barely become the nominee. She currently has support of 52% of the declared SDs, and the latest date at which she enjoyed the required level of support among SDs was 13th January. Since then, her share of SDs has monotonically decreased. Conversely, even after getting 47% of the remaining PDs, Obama will need just 28.6% of the undeclared SDs to barely get the nomination.

Sorry, but I don’t see how the race is “neck & neck”, unless you treat all superdelegates as unknown, despite their declarations. Even then, she needs almost 60% of the SDs. Yes, in terms of absolute numbers, the margin is small compared to the total number of delegates, but given the proportional nature of the delegate assignment, the existing SD support, and the evolution of this nomination process so far, it’s not “close”.

25

[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
I don’t believe for a minute that she ever swallowed his story. I think she stayed with him because she thought she’d have a better chance to be president herself if she did than if she left him. She’s had her eye on this run since Bill’s first run, her every move has been made with that in mind.
[/QUOTE]
Then we both pretty much agree about her goals, just not about the point at which she made the decision to swallow what the Billster was spewing forth.

26

[QUOTE=5-4-Fighting]
Then we both pretty much agree about her goals, just not about the point at which she made the decision to swallow what the Billster was spewing forth.
[/QUOTE]

She didn’t make a “sperm of the moment” decision like Monica did.

27

I wouldn’t count my super delegates until they have hatched, personally. And yeah, those numbers have remained essentially unchanged for a while now…and those numbers look pretty close to me. Because of the way delegates are awarded (i.e. no winner take all but proportionally) it’s pretty much impossible for Hillary to catch up…or for that matter for Obama to put her away due to the screw ups in Florida and MI.

But there is nothing saying that supers currently favoring Obama (or Hillary) HAVE to stay with that choice. Once the convention hits all bets are pretty much off IMHO…and yeah, I think the majority of those supers will be in play one way or the other. Recall that months ago Clinton had more supers either pledged to her or quasi-pledged to her than she does today. That should tell you something about how loyal these folks are going to be when it comes down to the wire.

-XT

28

[QUOTE=xtisme]
I wouldn’t count my super delegates until they have hatched, personally. And yeah, those numbers have remained essentially unchanged for a while now…and those numbers look pretty close to me. Because of the way delegates are awarded (i.e. no winner take all but proportionally) it’s pretty much impossible for Hillary to catch up…or for that matter for Obama to put her away due to the screw ups in Florida and MI.

But there is nothing saying that supers currently favoring Obama (or Hillary) HAVE to stay with that choice. Once the convention hits all bets are pretty much off IMHO…and yeah, I think the majority of those supers will be in play one way or the other. Recall that months ago Clinton had more supers either pledged to her or quasi-pledged to her than she does today. That should tell you something about how loyal these folks are going to be when it comes down to the wire.

-XT
[/QUOTE]

Right, but flipping from her to Obama then back to her would not really be in their best interests. I would think supers are prone to the good of the party and jumping around like a bingo caller is not on the top of their list of things to do. But we’ll see. I ultimately see them breaking in their current trend…

29

We shall see. Personally I think it depends on what happens between now and the convention. And on who is perceived to be the strongest candidate and is (again) perceived to have the greatest chance of toppling McCain in the REAL election. And despite what Obama fans may think, these questions are still up in the air atm and will be until the final run up to the election. Perception of Hillary (and Obama himself) have changed several times thus far…and it’s more than possible they will change again before or even during the convention.

-XT

30

[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
She didn’t make a “sperm of the moment” decision like Monica did.
[/QUOTE]

Groooooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

You two, both of you, you ought to be ashamed! :mad:

You already took all my jokes.

31

[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy]
You already took all my jokes.
[/QUOTE]
I’m sorry, that is, if you really had any jokes. :wink:

xtisme, you’re saying as we try to analyze and guess what going to happen, the numbers in front us at the moment don’t mean anything, and, if we do look at them, we’ve partaken of the kool-aid, one and all?

32

[QUOTE=xtisme]
I wouldn’t count my super delegates until they have hatched, personally. And yeah, those numbers have remained essentially unchanged for a while now…and those numbers look pretty close to me. Because of the way delegates are awarded (i.e. no winner take all but proportionally) it’s pretty much impossible for Hillary to catch up…or for that matter for Obama to put her away due to the screw ups in Florida and MI.

But there is nothing saying that supers currently favoring Obama (or Hillary) HAVE to stay with that choice. Once the convention hits all bets are pretty much off IMHO…and yeah, I think the majority of those supers will be in play one way or the other. Recall that months ago Clinton had more supers either pledged to her or quasi-pledged to her than she does today. That should tell you something about how loyal these folks are going to be when it comes down to the wire.

-XT
[/QUOTE]

But here’s the thing: Dean and other Democratic bigwigs have made it plain they want this thing decided as soon as the primaries are over, i.e., in early June. Assuming all the superdelegates go along and announce whom they’re backing then, Obama could go over the top of required delegates, past the magic 2025, and be the presumptive nominee. Do you think that Clinton will continue the fight after that?

33

The problem is that Dean isn’t really a bigwig. He’s just a figurehead. Bill Clinton, for better or worse, is the de facto head of the Democratic Party. (Which is another reason he’d sooner destroy Obama than lose that position to him.)

34

[QUOTE=Liberal]
The problem is that Dean isn’t really a bigwig. He’s just a figurehead. Bill Clinton, for better or worse, is the de facto head of the Democratic Party. (Which is another reason he’d sooner destroy Obama than lose that position to him.)
[/QUOTE]
You knew this was coming:

Cite?

35

[QUOTE=xtisme]
I wouldn’t count my super delegates until they have hatched, personally.
[..snip..]
But there is nothing saying that supers currently favoring Obama (or Hillary) HAVE to stay with that choice. Once the convention hits all bets are pretty much off IMHO
[/quote]

It is true by design that SDs aren’t obligated to respect their public endorsement, but it’s a non-parsimonious reading to say that current SD support has no meaning. In fact, treating all superdelegates as black boxes means that one can’t call the race ‘neck & neck’ either. Maybe 95% of SDs will go for Clinton, come August. But if we are taking plausibility into play, the simplest assumption is that, barring something dramatic, the current SD tally along with trends is a reasonable starting point for projections.

Cite? I recall a handful of SDs switching allegiances i.e. a pretty small number compared to the 258 SDs who current support her - not indicative of a significant volatility.

36

[QUOTE=xtisme]
As I said earlier, the simplest explanation for her behavior is that she actually, really REALLY, honest to goodness, thinks she can still pull this thing off and win. She may be delusional, she is almost certainly wrong…but she isn’t playing to torpedo the Democrats or Obama wrt McCain on the loopy chance that McCain will win this time and then screw the pooch enough that she will magically win both the nomination AND defeat McCain the incumbent. She is playing to win.

[/QUOTE]
I agree with this; the simplest explanation is the right one.

As long as Hillary stays in the race, she still has a chance. It may be a tiny chance, but it exists. If Obama’s campaign implodes, if a show-stopping skeleton appears – she’ll be right there ready to pick up the nomintation. People will admire her for being tough and sticking it out. Relieved that they still have a viable candidate. Superdelegates will shift to her. Heck, if her popularity rebounded enough, voters would overlook a few unpledged delegates ‘voting their conscious’ and would be willing to reconsider MI and FL. If public opinion is with you, you can do anything.

Now I don’t think Obama’s campaign is going to run off the rails, but I think there is a better chance of that happening than a 4-year plan that includes sabotaging the 2008 election, relaunching a bid in 2012, and winning that election.