I have the impresson that Dick Morris has more insight into the the Clintons’ psychology than your run-of-the-mill pundit, and he has a theory about Hillary’s motivations at this stage that makes a lot of sense to me:
Dunno about you, but more and more the Clintons look like something that crawled out from underneath a rock.
Do you lend credence to this theory? If this is Hillary’s game, do you think she could pull it off? Do the Clintons have any awareness of what this would do to their legacy, such as it is, and do they/should they care?
The Clinton’s are who they have always been. They are acting no differently than they always acted. It’s amusing to me that the Obama faithful think they have changed or something…or that what they are doing is a bad thing because Hillary won’t just quit so they can get on with the rapture of Obama marching to the WH in November.
As noted this isn’t a new theory…and it’s not especially believable either. My own Occam’s Razor says that Hillary actually still expects to be able to swing enough supers to, well, win. I know, I know…the Obama faithful don’t think she can win…but SHE, IMHO anyway, still thinks she can.
No convoluted theory needed if you just accept that the woman still thinks she is in the race…and still has the desire (and money) to try.
Yep - it’s been around since March, and no she doesn’t give a rats ass about Obama - she could care less if another republican get’s in. Problem is she has convinced herself that her methodology is fine and just…or at least is behaving as such to the MSM. I’ve heard amongst the Hillary people I hang around that they are fed up with her terrible choice of direction for her campaign. And these are staunch Hillary supporters - as the flip side to that coin, I see my guy doing quite well against both the republican and Clinton attack machines - she’s not fooling any dems, not at all.
Dunno, maybe it’s just the opposite. Maybe Hillary figures that she only has one shot to get the nomination. Look at the people who’ve run for President recently.
McCain ran in 2000, got knocked out early, and came back this year. Al Gore lost out in 1992 and got the nomination in 2000.
They’re the exceptions. Otherwise, a whole bunch of respected candidates – (off the top of my head) Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, John Kerrey, Wesley Clark, Bill Bradley, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp, Arlen Spector – managed one serious run for the brass ring and never managed to recapture the magic.
Recent history (like the last 50 years or so) suggests that “the presumptive front-runner” seldom winds up being the actual nominee in a later election.
I don’t see what’s so convoluted about the theory. Even she must admit that she’s no longer the favorite to win the election. She’d still like to be the first woman President, though, so ruining Obama’s chances against the Republican candidate gives her a better chance of winning the *next *election.
I think that’s far more likely than the idea that she doesn’t realize she’s going to lose the nomination.
Either she’s stupid (and doesn’t realize she’s probably not going to get the nomination), or she’s smart (and she’s got a long-term plan). Which is more likely?
It’s convoluted because she has no idea how she would fare in the next election, even assuming her diabolical plan worked and she sunk Obama and McCain got the top spot. There are so many variables in play that it’s not even funny. Someone with as much political savvy as Hillary is going to know that…and know that NOW is her time, if ever. If she waits 4 years she has to bank on (and this is an over simplification) A) McCain so screwing the pooch that a Dem will be able to walk right in (how’d that work out for Kerry vs Bush btw?), and B) That there would be no other Dem candidate blocking her path (like, say, Obama 4 years from now…unless you think he’ll just go away of course).
Well, YMMV. Personally I think she can look at the numbers and see that she is still within striking distance and that this thing is going to come down to the convention where the supers are going to make the final decision.
I’m guessing those aren’t the only choices…except to the faithful.
Forgive me for butting my English nose into American politics, but it strikes me that someone doesn’t arrive in Hillary’s position without a lot of determination and maybe a tiny dose of self-delusion about your chances.
You can’t spend years convincing yourself you can be president, years planning for it and then walk away without trying everything, so long as there is any chance of success. Woman or Man.
I don’t think there’s any need for a more complex plot.
Incumbency is very powerful. It made Ford a serous contender. It provides tons of free face time the office elevates in honor and prestige . It would be foolish to think she could walk in 4 years from now. I do not think she is foolish…
sigh
Do you really have to make it a “kool-aid” issue? Some of us don’t worship the people we want for President, and I really resent being painted with that brush whenever I take Obama’s side in anything. I happen to think he’s the best candidate- does that mean I’m one of his “faithful”? Please.
What are Hillary’s chances of being the Democratic nominee in the 2012 election, if Obama wins the nomination and then defeats McCain for the Presidency? Pretty slim, I’d bet.
However, if she loses this nomination, and Obama loses the election against McCain, she’ll be in a better position to be the Dem candidate in the 2012 election. It seems to me that the smart move for her, if she can’t win this election, is to make sure that she’s the best Democrat available the next time.
Agreed, I am not necessarily a fan of Obama and in fact have voted mostly Republican in the past. But I do wish the Democrats could get their crap together and present a viable alternative (and by that I do not mean a grasping witch like Hillary).
And don’t forget the delusion necessary to stand by your husband after he embarasses you globablly. I don’t really care that he got a bj, but he continued to lie to her and she believed him publically until well after the truth came out. It almost feels like she did it because staying with him was better for the presidential she knew she’d mount eventually but lied about for years.
Strategies are usually mutli-layered and if this is what she’s doing and she is as ruthless as we all know he to be, she’ll continue campaigning as if she thinks she might get the nomination (she might, who knows), but run her campaign so as to achieve that goal a scorched earth policy, thus setting herself up as the 2008 frontrunner for the race four years from now. Sure a lot of different things can happen but something you places your bets and takes your chances.
Why? He was in the Clintons’ inner circle for quite a long time, IIRC. His little peccadillos were hardly the most eyebrow raising for the White House of that era. (Hint: I’d think twice if offered a selection from Bill’s humidor.)
I don’t have to make it a ‘kool-aid’ issue…it seems to BE one. The theory is, to put it mildly, far fetched. And essentially you have to believe that Hillary is some kind of modern day Machiavelli…and stupid to boot. If that’s not the definition of drinking the ‘kool-aid’ I don’t know what is.
As I said earlier, the simplest explanation for her behavior is that she actually, really REALLY, honest to goodness, thinks she can still pull this thing off and win. She may be delusional, she is almost certainly wrong…but she isn’t playing to torpedo the Democrats or Obama wrt McCain on the loopy chance that McCain will win this time and then screw the pooch enough that she will magically win both the nomination AND defeat McCain the incumbent. She is playing to win.
And this meme SEEMS to be coming out of the more fervent Obama faithful who seem to resent that Hillary won’t just crawl away and die, despite the fact that the race is still pretty damn close…and despite the fact that in actual fact Obama hasn’t yet captured enough delegates to actually put this thing away. It’s annoying to be honest that some of the Obama fervent act the way they do and seem to be doing everything they can to convince themselves that Hillary is continuing on for all manner of loopy reasons…like the theory in the OP.
To my eyes (and at this point I won’t be voting for any of the candidates, Dem or 'Pub so I suppose I’m at least reasonably unbiased on this) this race is essentially neck and neck and has been for months now with neither candidate falling back or pulling ahead. And that’s not surprising considering the way delegates are awarded in the race. As has been obvious for some time now this thing is going to come down to the convention and the super delegates are going to decide this thing once and for all. This despite the twisting, turning, hand wringing and outrage of the Obama faithful who simply want Hillary to go away…for the good of the ‘party’ of course…
:smack:
Good luck with that. Only if Obama somehow manages to decisively defeat Hillary and capture enough support prior to the convention is she going to throw in the towel at this point. And if the various Obama faithful would be honest with themselves and wipe the froth from their collective muzzles they would concede that if the situations were reversed they and Obama wouldn’t be throwing in the towel yet either…and that wouldn’t make Obama the anti-Christ or Machiavelli with loopy plans to sink Hillary while plotting to overthrow McCain 4 years from now.
-XT
p.s. I breathlessly await the NEXT thread exactly like this one a week (and exactly like at least one thread I can think of from a week or so ago) or so from now when it’s revealed yet again that Hillary is a scheming bitch ready to throw the party to the wolves for her own gains. I mean DUH! She is a politician, ehe?
I think the OP’s theory says more about how Dick Morris’ mind works than it does about Hillary Clinton’s.
Here’s what Hillary Clinton is thinking - she wants to be elected President. So does Barack Obama and John McCain. Nobody just happens to get elected President - you have to want it a lot.
Clinton’s looking at the real numbers and seeing she still has a viable chance. Obama’s supporters can complain now about superdelegates but they exist and they’re going to decide the nomination.
Finally, Clinton believes she can beat McCain in November and Obama can’t. She sees Obama as another Stevenson, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry. And she’s Bill Clinton and Lyndon Johnson. She’s hoping that enough other people will see this and decide it’s better to win with her than lose with Obama,
