Putin may think he has much to gain from a Trump Presidency but the truth is he was probably far better off maintaining the Democrats in power. Undeniably he has made substantial gains under the Obama adminstration. Trump is far too unpredictable to be of much use to the Russian leader.
I think he has some buyers remorse and is looking for the return counter.
Hawkish Hillary wasn’t his cup of tea, but she wasn’t going to put U.S. troops on the ground to defend the Ukraine.
Trump’s a loose cannon - Russia doesn’t need a war with China or North Korea to start dropping bombs - they are way closer than we are when the wars can’t be contained. And he is certainly closer to the Middle East - and Russia and the USSR have not always been the best friend of Islam.
But I think he game was functionally to distract us for eighteen months of election and the next three to twelve years of Trump circus (low end, impeachment and a quick stabilization under Pence - high end, Trump remains in office and/or we don’t stabilize).
Trump is highly unpredictable in the small sense of which trivial diversion will attract his attention next. He seems pretty predictable in desiring to feather his own nest.
It’s been hinted at by various leaks and so-far amateur intelligence work that he’s been offered truly insane amounts of money to turn a blind eye to Russian expansionism, and indeed may been given a major financial stake in it succeeding.
If that turns out to be true (whether or not that truth is ever publicly proven), well, I think we can rely on Trump to recognize which side his bread has been buttered on and on him ruthlessly pursuing getting even more. He does that almost as well as he breathes; it’s that intrinsic to his makeup.
In that sense Putin may have a ***very ***predictable puppet. One far noisier than he’s used to. But predictable in the stuff that really matters. To Putin.