So, y’alls in the US are much abuzz about Putin’s interference in the election process and possible role in getting that guy elected. Thing is, it’s not Putin’s only dabbling in foreign fuckery. He’s rumored to have had a role in the Brexit vote, and is also supporting the rise of the French far-right, whitewashed Nazi candidate in a variety of ways. Same thing in Holland and Germany. Fake news, hacking, money, possible blackmail, the works.
But my question is : what does Putin or Russia gain by propping up populist, ultranationalist candidates in the West, exactly ?
He’s looking to fracture a federation on his borders with a population over 300 million and an economy over $17 trillion. By triggering nationalist elections he can peel off various countries, damage various economies and hopefully trigger a loss of cohesive diplomatic responses to whatever new little projects he dreams up.
It’s far easier to be a $1 trillion GDP bad boy when the guys around you don’t out weight you over 10:1
I get the divide & conquer thing, but the last bit is the salient part I’d like brainstomed : what little projects, exactly ? Is he planning Ukraine Part Deux : Estonian Boogaloo ?
I’d imagine whatever the hell he wants. He’s spoken of how bordering nations need to be within Russia’s sphere. I’d guess that entails sweet deals, political support, acquiescence and all the other cool things dreamers of a renewed empire yearn for.
Instability and uncertainty. Russia is really in a weak position right now. Their economy is in a shambles and since it’s a one trick pony, basically, and that pony is lamed by the current (and probably for the foreseeable future) prices of oil and gas, he has to do something to distract and confuse. Partly this will play into his hands locally…it makes Russians think they still have a hand in world affairs and that their guy is dogging the rest. Partly it distracts foreign countries while also giving the impression that Russia is still a major player. Even if the stories aren’t true, just the fact that they COULD be true makes it seem like Russia is much more powerful and active than they probably are. It buys Russia time, which Putin thinks they need in order to get back where he feels they should be, as one of the dominant countries on the planet.
It also doesn’t hurt that, if true, he will have allies in those countries willing to overlook Russian actions (the odd hospital and civilians bombings atrocities and the like), perhaps get rid of pesky sanctions and invasions…er, I mean liberations. Stuff like that.
I don’t think he needs to have specific projects. Weakening your rivals/adversaries is always a good thing : it will prove useful regardless of what happens in the future, be it negociations about a gas pipeline, intervention in the middle-east, strongarming eastern-european nations, negociating with a more isolated western country or whatnot.
Russia wants the West to lose faith in democracy and their institutions. They want Russia-style authoritarianism to be fashionable instead of something the West wags their finger at. You may think a nationalist Europe would reject Russia, but the right-wing white nationalist mentality often sees Russia as the last bastion of white people rejecting multi-culturalism, political correctness, homosexuality, and feminism. This is speculation from what I’ve seen in some alt-right communities, but long term they may want the Christian white West to unite and fight Islam and the Godless Chinese.
Further to what some have already suggested, Putin is widely believed to have imperialist ambitions centered on resurrecting the former power and dominance of the Soviet Union. Undermining and discrediting western democracies helps to eliminate obstacles to that strategy; an America that appears to be incapable of governing itself and has a fool for a leader is for him both a propaganda triumph and a tangible step forward toward his ambitions.
Did Putin foment unrest in Eastern Ukraine under Trumps nose? Nope.
Did Putin take the upper hand in Syria under Trumps nose? Nope.
While your analysis of Trump might be correct, it would be a continuation of Western policy towards him. Im praying that the Madman Theory of Foreign Relations will do what quiet diplomacy couldnt.
[ul]
[li]Breaking apart NATO (Trump is hostile to NATO for example)[/li][li]Breaking apart the EU[/li][li]Many far right politicians in the west are pro-Putin because he is an authoritarian strongman, which they emulate. Plus Russia is rejecting things like gay rights, while other western nations have accepted gay rights (Russia remains conservative in an increasingly liberal world). [/li][li]Some far right politicians have been openly in favor of Russia annexing ex-soviet states. [/li][li]Putin interfering with democratic elections in the west lowers faith in democracy and our systems. This would make western nations more open to authoritarian rule. [/li][/ul]
Simple: Putin is both a very ambitious man and a very patriotic Russian.
Ergo, he wants Russia to be the most important and powerful country in the world, and for himself to be the most important and powerful man in the world.
A weaker USA makes both things more likely. And Trump means a weaker USA.
The Madman Theory is silly, and in this case the madman is on Putin’s side.
There’s a considerable amount of truth to the notion that Putin sees fellow travellers in the right-wing bigotry on the rise in the West. Putin’s regime is viciously racist, homophobic, and sexist, and that’s why Trumpists like it (that and its authoritarian nature. Some people love that.) The reason the “Trump and Putin Are Plotting Against China” narrative is so popular with Trumpists, and shows up on the front page of the National Enquirer every now and then, is quite straightforward; Russians are mostly white people and Chinese aren’t.
Putin knows he can manipulate bigotry to get what he wants, and that helping Trump play to the bigots is good politics.
He’s a nationalist only to the degree it supports feeding value into his and his pal’s kleptocratic pockets. He also knows that nationalism plays very well to the rubes. Whose support he needs to remain in power & continue to steal.
And, as a Russian, he has a very much zero-sum worldview. Sowing confusion and dissention in his opponents, be they Russian political or business rivals, or Western countries, can only be good things from that POV.
In Putin’s ideal world, every country would be run like Russia is. And then the small coterie of oligarchs & strongmen could get on with the business of fleecing the entire planetary economy with no concern for anything that we’d recognize as politics nor international relations.
Given that, doing things calculated to put Putin-esque characters into power anywhere and everywhere is part and parcel of Putinism. Orban in Hungary, Le Pen in France, etc.
And naturally in that world the best = most ruthless oligarchs & authoritarians would come out on top. A contest Putin and his pals are rather better positioned to win than they are in the current world political and economic order.
Trump is kind of a Bizarro ant-Putin. Putin himself is an authoritarian first and a kleptocrat second. IMO Trump is a kleptocrat first and an authoritarian second. And probably not nearly as skilful at either.
Regardless of whether Putin had anything material to do with Trump’s election, he’s pleased to see a US leader who’s cut from more his own kind of cloth. This affords at least the potential (if not already the reality) for Putin to do backstage business with Trump for Putin’s benefit. Which is not an option any Soviet or Russian leader has had with any US Presidents of either party since the 1800s.
Especially concerning to me is the naïve and inward -directed Cabinet choices. Guys like Bannon will be utterly focused on small domestic stuff while the outside world is pulled down around his / Trump’s / our ears.
A former NATO supreme commander was on NPR this morning discussing Putin’s strategy. He said Putin was pursuing multiple goals including immediate ones like getting sanctions lifted and longer term ones like separating the US from NATO so Putin would have more influence.
Unfortunately there’s no transcript, but it’s only a five minute interview and worth a listen:
Russia is a major part of the Chinese One Belt One Road initiative, with major investments in infrastructure in Russia to link China with Europe vide rail and eventuallu roads.
They already have a committment to invest50 Billion in Russia with over 200 Billion total investments eventually.
Basically, the world is very quickly seeing a realignment and rise of new power groups. For a EuroCentric perspective, think of the realignment after the Franco-Prussian War and then the Etent Cordial. Its very interesting time; way more complicated than the stupid *reductio ad absurdum * Putin is an “eeevil dictator” that **RickJay **and XT amongst others are proposing upthread.
No, I was thinking about something like this…which isn’t a one off that was a pretty gray situation and one that the US investigated along with the international community. I haven’t seen a lot of investigations in the multiple hospitals that WERE LEVELED, not simply hit by gun ship fire. We won’t even get into the other differences between your link and what the Russians and Syrians have been doing, since it’s so ridiculous a comparison I feel embarrassed for you for making it, especially when you obviously thought it was a great gotcha…
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Basically, the world is very quickly seeing a realignment and rise of new power groups. For a EuroCentric perspective, think of the realignment after the Franco-Prussian War and then the Etent Cordial. Its very interesting time; way more complicated than the stupid reductio ad absurdum Putin is an “eeevil dictator” that RickJay and XT amongst others are proposing upthread.
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Well, I don’t think either RickJay or myself made the argument that it’s all about Putin being an ‘eeevil dictator’. Did you actually read either of our posts??
FTR though, Putin IS a pretty fucking evil dictator. Wasn’t the theme of my own post (nor from what I can see RickJay’s), but doesn’t mean it’s not true. It’s more complicated that that, ironically, considering you are under the impression that this was all we were saying.
If Trump is perceived by Putin as incompetent, and the US perceived by Putin as a rival/adversary, then it makes sense that Putin would want an incompetent leader at the helm of the USA.
