I’m a blue dot in a sea of red so take this for what it’s worth.
I don’t think it’s out of any particular fondness for McCain considering that Huckabee won Alabama’s Republican primary. When McCain secured the nomination, some of the Birmingham morning DJs were fit to be tied. One of them said that the presidential race would now be two Democrats running against each other. (Democrat is a vulgar word and one of the worst insults you can sling at someone in some circles. )
My own opinion is that most of the Republican support in this state comes from religious takes on social issues: abortion, gay marriage, etc. In the end, they may not like the candidate, but they’re still going to vote Republican even if they have to hold their noses.
People only think Texas is in McCain’s pocket because Bush won it easily twice. Apart from the last poll by ARG, which had a ridiculous +21 lead, every poll since late June has it at +9-10 McCain. Part of this shift is because Bush is no longer on the ticket, part of it is that Republicans are slowly alienating Hispanics more and more, and I think part of it is that a lot of people want to vote for Obama, as opposed to sighing and voting for Obama, or voting against McCain. If Obama puts some time and money in there, I honestly think he has a decent shot at winning. Of course, that must also be balanced against Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Virginia, but, you know, that’s one of the calculations each campaign has to make.
Until 1992, my state used to be one of the biggest battleground states every year, just like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania still are. But Clinton put in comfortably in the blue column and it has stayed there ever since. Somehow, I don’t think John McCain is going to be the candidate to start reversing this trend.
Yeah. I wouldn’t put too much time and money in a state where I’m down by 10 when, as you mentioned, there’s a lot of low lying fruit elsewhere. Up by 10 is a pretty large lead.
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