In another recent thread there was a comment joking about the idea that Julian Castro is superficially similar to the Matt Santos character from ‘The West Wing’. I’ve subsequently been browsing through some of the Republican potential candidates and have heard of George Pataki for the first time, whom from first impressions also seems to resemble the Republican West Wing character Arnold Vinick.
Now, I now nothing about him, I’ve not seen him on TV or heard him speak. I don’t know if he has any gravitas or polish, which is so important in US politics. Positionally, he seems to be a solid fiscal conservative, but generally progressive on social issues, including championing a gay rights bill in the senate and supporting environmental issues.
Besides from the (most likely) insurmountable task of getting through the primaries, if he were to stand in the national, would he be a contender? He seems (like Vinick) to hold positions that a majority of US voters could support, but maybe I’m missing something. So, what’s the Dope? Would mainstream republicans, if given the opportunity, support his candidacy? Thanks.
Anyone who gets nominated is a contender, sure. But he’s an unknown nationally, and to a large degree even in New York. He hasn’t been governor for almost a decade, and even then wasn’t prominent. If he ever had a time, it’s long past by now.
Just another daydreamer, looking at the field and thinking “Hey, why not me?” But it ends there for many, including him.
George Pataki is a three-term governor of New York, my state.
I would say that within New York, there isn’t much of a general opinion of him. He was a competent, non-controversial governor, but pretty immediately forgotten. He doesn’t have much, if any, personal star power.
He is probably pretty much as conservative as you can be while getting elected New York governor three times, which is to say not very conservative at all on the national scale.
At this point, probably the only ones who are aware of him nationally (other than the in vague memories of New Yorkers) are political junkies interested in third-tier presidential possibles.
He’d probably do as good or better job as many of the big names out there, though there is no possibility he will get the nomination because of his political centrism and his utter lack of personal pizzazz.
If you can govern New York and everyone think you’re okay, then you can be President. We don’t need to be excited by a President, we need competence and integrity.
As Bill Maher said, the President is not your boyfriend. It doesn’t need to be a whirlwind everytime you see him.
Pataki is what passes for a centrist or moderate Republican these days. He is low-key and unlikely to pander to Tea Party types or evangelical Christians. All of these things pretty much mean it would be next to impossible for him to get the nomination at this point in time. Ironically, I do think if he were nominated he would have a decent chance at winning, but I don’t see how that could happen in today’s Republican party.
You’re talking about the ability to govern. Billdo was talking about the fact that a significant chunk of the American electorate does not elect a president on that basis, but on appearance, soundbites, and partisan spin. I think he’d be fine in the general election, in a race of two, but the primaries will be more difficult. Perhaps he’s using the classic “wait for the crazies to self-destruct” strategy, and hopes to be the last man standing by the time the general rolls around.
That strategy has never worked for anyone, at least in the modern era. And it wouldn’t work for Pataki, either. One more characteristic a successful candidate must have is a near-psychotic ambition to be President, sufficient to drive him through a year or two of full-time fundraising, sometimes campaigning, and all the nonsense it brings. No one gets handed the job or even the nomination without that.
Yes, Pataki might make a capable, if colorless and unambitious, President, and a better Cabinet Secretary - we could do much worse and we too often *have *- but if he had the “fire in the belly” to go through with it, we’d have seen it by now. But he wouldn’t even run for an open Senate seat he might well have been able to win.
Pataki apparently was on the short list to be Bush’s running mate in 2000. As a moderate New Yorker, he’d have balanced Bush as a conservative Texan. And Pataki would have provided the gravitas to the Bush ticket. And it would have made Pataki the presumptive Republican candidate for 2004 or 2008, depending on how the elections went.
But in my opinion, Pataki’s moment has long passed. He’s been out of office since 2006 (New York has had three governors since Pataki) and the moderate Republican wing he represents has virtually no strength in the national party. And at 69, he can’t afford to wait four or eight years in the Vice Presidency.
That wouldn’t stop him from being VP though. Dick Cheney hadn’t been in politics for 8 years. Pataki would be especially useful if the next Republican administration wants the VP to play a large role in policymaking as Cheney did. So if you get say, Marco Rubio as the nominee, someone with little experience, then Pataki could be the guy who did most of the day to day work while Rubio was the face and big ideas of the administration.
And yet there is no reason to think Pataki would have any interest in being VP. Cheney and the Bush family had a long standing relationship. He was one of Poppy’s buddies and GW had turned to him for help. There is no such relationship between Pataki and Rubio. The suggestion Pataki would entertain such a harebrained idea is nothing more than fantasy.
I don’t think Pataki would turn the VP nomination down if it was offered. But there’s no reason for any of the major candidates to offer it to him.
Pataki can’t bring gravitas to the ticket because he’s largely an unknown and he doesn’t have a charismatic personality.
There’s no point in picking Pataki because of his moderate credentials. People who like the moderate platform aren’t going to vote Republican because there’s a moderate VP; they’re going to vote for Clinton or any of the other likely Democratic candidates. And Pataki’s moderate platform would alienate some voters in the conservative base.
There’s no geographic sense to it. Even if Clinton isn’t the Democratic nominee, there’s virtually no chance that the Republicans will carry New York.
And Pataki wouldn’t be an administration manager like Cheney was. Cheney stayed connected even while he was officially out of office. Pataki’s been retired for almost a decade and even when he was in office, it was in Albany not Washington. He doesn’t know the current players in national politics.
At least for now he seems like he is going to make a serious play for the top spot on the ticket. If Jeb keeps floundering I could see Pataki getting some support but I still don’t see how he ends up with the nomination.
This is his big problem. Against Clinton he can’t carry his own state in either the top spot or as VP.
His low profile and non-controversial tenure as governor could have made him good VP material for someone like Jeb Bush if they weren’t facing Clinton, but even still any liberal Democrat running might carry New York also, not to mention that Jeb doesn’t look like the likely candidate and might not be able to carry his own state in the primaries against Rubio.
What he may be running for is to take the primary in New York and leverage those votes with the eventual candidate for a cabinet position or ambassadorship.
I eagerly anticipate the technicolor spectacle of his head exploding at one of the Republican debates, as is always the risk when a fairly sane person is trapped in the presence of determined and pervasive lunacy.
It’s interesting to note - mostly in a baseball trivia kind of way - that Pataki has never lost an election in his career, and upset Mario Cuomo to become governor of NY.
It’s not just that any Democrat will take NY, but that the only conceivable scenario in which Pataki takes NY is if the election is a blowout in which NY doesn’t matter anyway. The only “home state” advantage that counts is a guy from a swing state, e.g. FL, WI, or OH.
Or maybe even lower expectations than that. If he can raise his profile by running a semi-decent campaign and get his name into popular discussion he can help his career in whatever he’s doing. And besides, you never know …