I read somewhere this morning (sorry, no cite) that while some high-level Trump supporters are saying that there’s plenty of time to turn things around (the article said 90 days, but I get almost a week short of that), the reality is that there’s only six weeks until early voting starts.
How much impact does early voting have? On the one hand, any kind of October Surprise won’t have any effect on votes already cast, but the percentage of votes cast more than a month before the election has to be small, doesn’t it?
If one of the candidates stepped down sometime in October, would the people who voted early get a do-over?
Yes, thank you. (I read it on my pad over breakfast – pad is downstairs, and I’m lazy.)
I’m surprised the number is that high. (Clearly I read the article before my second cup of coffee.) Still though my guess is that the number of people voting early increases over time, so that maybe only a very small number of voters cast their ballot before Columbus Day, and not all that many before Halloween.
But the question remains – how does early voting impact campaign strategy?
I’m assuming that the only people who vote early are those that could not foresee anything happening that would change who they vote for, so it doesn’t affect much in two-party races (although in a 3-party race, how sure of you that your candidate won’t withdraw? Your own fault for voting early if they do.). Election Day is now merely a deadline to make up your mind, and there are relatively few people who have not done so by that day.
Early voting means a longer period of time in which to vote. A longer period of time in which to vote means more people end up voting. More people voting traditionally favors Democrats.
In addition to the impact to the current strategy Frank quoted above, there are also strategy adjustments that are made as the campaign goes on. From the same NYT article:
Here in Minnesota, you can vote early by absentee ballot (starting in a month), but you can submit a 2nd (or 3rd, or 4th…) absentee ballot later. The one with the latest postmark before election day is the one that counts. Or you can actually show up at the polls on election day, and that in-person vote replaces any previous absentee ones. It doesn’t seem to cause any chaos (though it rarely happens).
We now have in-person early voting, where you can go to designated places (usually the city clerk’s office) and vote. I don’t know if you can later vote absentee or at the polls on election day after having voted early.
It’s a little more work than that. You have to contact the elections office to cancel your original ballot, and you can do this only until a week before the election. If you just mail multiple ballots or show up in person without canceling the previous ballot, you can end up like this woman who was charged with voter fraud for voting both absentee and in person.
[QUOTE=Minnesota Secretary of State]
WHAT IF I RETURNED MY BALLOT AND WANT TO CHANGE MY VOTE?
You can ask to cancel your ballot until the close of business one week before Election Day. After that time, you cannot cancel your ballot. To cancel your ballot, contact the election office that sent your ballot. Your options are to have a new ballot mailed; vote in person at your local election office; or vote at your polling place on Election Day.
[/QUOTE]
Voters may be voting early because they’re wary of the long lines and delays in poorly-served polls evidenced in previous elections on the actual election day.