Indeed in a race in which either candidate is up by even 4 in the popular vote verall the map the states under discussion would generally all go one way or the other. It might be fun to guess how far up the flip ladder it could go but of little real value. The usefulness of this exercise is in attempting to determine which states would be most critical in a contest that was closer to 50/50. Hence the importance of realizing that with certain sorts of modest turnout and share changes one party or the other can win the EV even with a narrow popular vote loss.
Yeah, that’s where things get interesting. THe Republicans have a definite disadvantage in a 50/50 race. I just don’t agree that this creates a “Blue Wall”. It’s more of a Blue Firewall in that if things are going slightly not well for the Democrat such that she is down by 1 or 2, that she might still pull out an EV win. But if she’s down by 3 or more, it won’t help.
No one in this thread is discussing a Blue Wall but you. In fact my 538 model demonstrated that a modest increase in non-college educated White turnout with slight GOP favorable improvements in Black groups and little counterbalancing changes would result in a GOP EV win with a GOP popular vote loss.