There is also a helpful chart tracking debt to GDP in these countries. The process seems to essentially follow austerity plans implemented in Latin America during the '80s. However, the European countries in austerity now are in a somewhat different situation because their hands are tied by the Euro, which limits their options.
Leaving the Euro would be painful for Greece, but IMO staying is even more painful. I agree with those who think the Germans are imposing draconian terms on Greece because they ultimately want the Greeks out of the Euro, they would just prefer Greece do it on their own. If so, Greece has some leverage to negotiate the terms of exit, which IMO would decrease the longer austerity takes its toll.
There is an article on the Beeb website that hints that maybe the rest of Europe wants Greece out, has already made plans, and the bailout money would be used to support other countries that are carrying out the austerity policies.
I would seem that the previous bailout came with conditions, and that Greece has largely not done much to comply. There is little confidence that Greece has been willing in the past and much more will be uncovered, and certainly no guarantee that they will implement cost cutting measures in the future.
The Euro would probably be more stable without the Greek fraudsters.
“Austerity” won’t work, but will anything else? Outside of a fifty fold increase in the international value of olives and anise seed? A worldwide obsession with going to the Parthenon and buy ten thousand dollars worth of T-shirts saying “Go Greek!” in fifty different languages? Undercut the Chinese in labor cost?
Its hard to know how much of this is dumb-fuckery, how much could be avoided, and how much is nothing more than the vast impersonal machinery of international capitalism grinding people into kibbles and bits.
However much of this is the result of the well-to-do avoiding their share of taxation is up for grabs, give it any number you want, one percent, ten, fifty, whatever. That portion of the problem was avoidable, that could have been prevented, at least to some degree.
We are having a comparable debate here and now, in America. You most likely have a rough but fair idea of my own views on this, so there is no need to belabor the hamsters yet again. Just let me point out that I do not currently favor putting rich people to the Wall. OK, maybe a couple or three. To encourage the others, you understand.
I don’t see how this has anything to do with capitalism. It’s government borrowing money to pay for government programs. It’s people not paying taxes, and a poor country trying to integrate its monetary system with larger, richer countries.
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“Austerity” won’t work, but will anything else? Outside of a fifty fold increase in the international value of olives and anise seed? A worldwide obsession with going to the Parthenon and buy ten thousand dollars worth of T-shirts saying “Go Greek!” in fifty different languages? Undercut the Chinese in labor cost?
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Austerity can work, depending on how close to the bone you are willing to cut, and how painful you are willing for things to be in the short and medium terms for gains in the long run. Certainly they can’t just cut a few things for a year or so and have it all be back to normal again, especially as deeply in the hole as they are. You are right about the fact that austerity only gets you so far, and ultimately you need to increase revenues somehow. Tourism is one of the biggest Greek revenue sources, and most likely (once they stop rioting in the streets and scaring off all the tour-ons) that will remain the case in the future. So, they probably should focus on that and make themselves THE tourist destination on the Med. BTW, if you have never been then I highly recommend it…once the troubles stop. It’s beautiful.
It’s going to be a long and painful process though, and a lot of folks are going to be hurting. There is no doubt about that and I don’t think anyone is trying to sugar coat any of this stuff in this thread at least. The Greeks need to work out their issues with tax collection, they need to work out their issues with the current retirement system, they need to work out their issues with other government spending, with wage levels…with a lot of things. And they need to do so with an eye to the fact that they only have X amount of revenue to work with, so their spending needs be below that X in the long run.
As John said, what’s this situation in Greece have to do with capitalism? It’s got to do with a government that spent more than it brought in and then borrowed heavily to make up the difference until the piper started pounding on the door to be paid. If taxes weren’t being paid, whether by The Rich™, The Poor™ or Everyone In-Between(aar) then that’s not the fault of capitalism, it’s the fault of the government. If the people wanted programs, services, wages, retirement, etc that exceeded the governments ability to provide them then that’s not the fault of capitalism…that’s a government issue. Want more services and other government goodies? Need to pay more in taxes. Pretty simple equation there.
Why is this the problem of the well-to-do? Avoiding taxes seems to be a systemic problem…almost a national sport…at ALL levels of Greek society. Why is the answer always to just make the rich pay for these kinds of mistakes? Regardless, how is this a capitalism issue…if you want to soak the rich to pay for all of societies goodies then that’s, again, a government function. Their government (several actually) decided that it was a better idea just to borrow more to ‘fix’ their shortfalls…and to keep doing that until the train went off the rails.
Some folks might think we are having the same debate, but we aren’t even in the same universe. You might think that rich people are getting off the hook in the US by not paying their ‘fair share’, but even at the rate they are paying it’s a pretty large percentage of the countries total tax revenue (depending on what you mean by ‘rich’ it’s a REALLY high percentage of the total), and because we DO pay our taxes, by and large, and we don’t go overboard on the services stuff (few people retire in the US at age 50 for a large percentage of their salaries when they were working, for instance), we are a very wealthy country who’s real problem is what to spend our trillions of dollars of revenue on…not on trying to borrow enough to stay afloat for another 6 months.
Saying “Austerity won’t work” is true, if you think that austerity is supposed to magically transform Greece after a few years of budget cuts into a country that can pay its bills. Greece is a poor country with few sources of revenue. It has borrowed stupendous amounts of money and it has no hope of paying that off.
That money is gone, and the people who lent the money to Greece are screwed. Germany isn’t going to pay off the Greek creditors.
This is all true. Now, what next? Complaining about “austerity” misses the point. Greece has high levels of government spending. In the past they were able to pay for that by borrowing. Now they won’t be able to. Nobody is going to lend them the money, except at ruinous interest rates, which will just make the problem worse. It would be like being short on money and going to a loanshark every month to make your mortgage payments.
So. Greece can’t borrow any more, it can’t pay off its current creditors, it can’t raise money by increasing taxes because it’s a poor country with a culture of undocumented economic activity. If it had it’s own currency, it could just devalue the currency and pay off the creditors in lepta on the drachma. Except it can’t do that, because it borrowed Euros.
So what exactly do those who sympathize with the Greeks suggest? That German taxpayers are morally obligated to subsidize Greece indefinately, so the Greeks can keep their high levels of government services and low levels of government revenue? It turns out that Greece is a poor country with a shitty economy even if they hadn’t saddled themselves with an enormous debt. Even if you wave a magic wand and make the debt disappear (that is, Mom/Germany pays your debts to your drugdealer), you still need austerity because your lifestyle is unsustainable. Mom can’t make it all OK just by paying your current debts, because you’re still going farther into debt every day. She’d have to agree to keep paying every month.
That isn’t going to happen, is it? Even if you agreed to live by Mom’s rules, you’d still have to cut your budget dramatically. And this is politically impossible in Greece. So they can’t cut the budget, they can’t borrow, they can’t increase revenues, they can’t do anything and they can’t do nothing. And so they’re screwed.
Well, gee whiz, XT, you mean all that stuff I’ve been reading about how the top percentiles have been raking in more and more of our national wealth while the others lose out…that’s all a pack of lies? Well, I guess that certainly settles that!
Um…move the goal posts much? I don’t see anywhere in what I wrote that addresses anything about the top percentiles having more and more of the national wealth. Could you, perhaps, do some cutting and pasting to show where you THINK I mentioned any of that? Thanks, in advance.
I am eager to learn from someone who knows how the real world works, something that I sadly lack. Or at least, so I am often told.
For instance, I have fallen prey to the canard that tax rates on the wealthy have declined considerably since the Eisenhower years. I suspect, given my dim understanding of reality, that there is some definite cause and effect going on here. The so-called “statistics” seem to bear this out.
I am further misinformed that Republicans think that this is the best order of things, and work mightily to preserve that which is good and right. They have the sympathy and support of those who agree with them. $upport, that is. The Greeks seem to have done it the wrong way, they used subterfuge and trickery to avoid paying taxes, the smart way is to control writing the tax laws so that such vexations do not befall one.
So, was it the poor and working class people of Greece who insisted upon this order of things? Seems unlikely, as they were unlikely to benefit. And who the hell is going to graduate from lobbying school and go to work for them? Outside of fuzzy thinking lefties who don’t know how the real world works, I mean.
But you seem to have rather clear opinions about who is in the wrong here. But while you insist I prove my contentions, I see little from you to support yours. Is it your turn yet?
So, no quotes or cites of me saying that stuff? Well, ok then…we can push on.
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I am eager to learn from someone who knows how the real world works, something that I sadly lack. Or at least, so I am often told.
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It’s always a pleasure to help out the less fortunate, 'luci. Practically a duty.
Have you, perhaps, noted that while the tax rates on the wealthy have declined, that tax REVENUE has gone up during that same period? In fact, the US brings in substantially more tax revenue today than it did during Ike’s memorable (well, maybe to you…I wasn’t born yet) presidency. What this has to do with the topic under discussion is a mystery to me, however. Perhaps if you have some questions on all of this you could humbly (that was a good one coming from you, btw) ask them in GQ to get some more substantial answers? Just a thought.
Ok, at least you used ‘Greeks’ here, which indicates at least some tenuous link to the actual topic at hand. Sadly, there is so much extraneous rhetoric here that my poor, age addled brain simply can’t process it. Could you, perhaps, cut to the chase? What exactly are you asking…or stating…or something…here?
Again, could you cut to the chase please? To me it seems simple enough…the Greeks wanted a range of governmental services. They, as a whole and seemingly regardless of class, didn’t want to pay their taxes. They are also, sadly, poor without large natural resources (outside of some spectacular ruins and landscapes), or large sources of income (lots of state run industries and businesses that weren’t exactly burning up the profit sheets). So, they spent more than they had. Whether this is something you are or aren’t addressing here is a mystery to me…your eloquence is far beyond my capacity to grep, so could you kindly translate for an old man as to what you are getting at? It’s all Greek to me…
You always warm the heart, 'luci. A question though…what is your impression of my ‘clear opinions about who is in the wrong here’? I’m really curious, since afaict we are back to your assertions that I claimed that the wealthy don’t have an increasingly large share of the nations wealth (presumably in the US)…or something.
I defend the Greek protesters, much as I defend the Occupy movement. You give me some shit for it, am I to assume you were talking about my opinion on Hydrox vs Oreos, or that it was about the subject at hand? If you have no opinion to offer, why are you attacking mine? Snide references to doobies, dorm rooms, and class warfare aside, of course, those were cogent points, to be sure.
Naturally, I am sorry to hear that you find my vocabulary and rhetoric baffling. But never let it be said that my years in Minnesota have not improved me! I promise to try, especially when addressing you directly, to be mindful of your limitations.
On second thought, perhaps it would be best to withdraw our ambassadors and seal the borders.
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I defend the Greek protesters, much as I defend the Occupy movement.
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Again, do you have a quote? My own recollection was merely that some of the basic assumptions being made by the Greek protesters were also made by the Occupy movement. What, specifically and without all the rhetorical flourishes, are you defending, and what, specifically, do you wish to discuss?
I gave you some shit about your over the top rhetoric with phrases like (to paraphrase…too difficult to scroll up and get them on my iPad) ‘we as a society can’t afford rich people’. WRT the Occupy movement, I seem to recall merely pointing out some similarities in thought and leaving it at that.
Because you don’t HAVE a real, solid position on this or anything as far as I can tell, 'luci. You have a lot of rhetorical hot air, but no substance. What IS your position and your opinion on why the Greek protesters are right? What IS your position and opinion on the Occupy Movement, and how does it relate to what’s happening in Greece?
If you are going to wax poetically like a dorm room bull session then I’m going to point it out. If you have anything specific to say, then say it and it can be discussed. If you have real, specific questions then they can be addressed and answered. It’s the whole ‘debate’ thingy. Do you HAVE any of that stuff?
Oh good! That really makes my bunny jump.
Well, just keep in mind that if someone drives up in a large wooden badger to check inside before dragging it into the castle…
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Offered for interest, not as citation. Brief, well written (New Yorker, after all!) article about tax evasion in Greece.
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I’ve only skimmed the article (I’ll try and read through the whole thing later tonight on my laptop), but I believe this exact point has been made several times already. Just a quick quote:
Is this the sort of thing you were craving, Big Guy? There’s simply oodles more. Or you could google Greece Tax evasion, there’s probably a ton of stuff there about how Greece’s tax evasion problem is the fault of scruffy protesters. I’m just hiding it.
Evading income taxes appears to be a national pass time. Link.
Yeah, little envelope. Sure, the big bucks are being hidden by the people with big bucks. Thats sort of a tautology. And the very poor, as usual, pay none. But Greece has a high VAT, which is hard to escape, and maybe that’s why people feel OK with cheating on income tax. According the linked article, tax rates are 35% once you hit the equivalent of US$40k. The higher the rate, the more incentive to cheat.
