Russia has cut off all sales of natural gas to the Ukraine. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia-Ukraine_gas_dispute Is this simply a business negotiation gone wrong? Or is there some political motivation? If so, what? And how is it likely to play out?
Given the remarkable story of Yushchenko’s poisoning with dioxins where he alleged that he had been abducted, and held by russian nationals during which time he was fed some foods, particularly soup, one cannot help but wonder about what is going on.
http://en.for-ua.com/news/2005/12/09/140552.html
You will recall that this abduction occurred some weeks before the dodgy election, and it was something of a mystery why he suddenly dissappeared for a week or so.
Nobody took it too seriously at the time, most thought he was suffering from ‘Yeltsin’ syndrome, ie, being too familiar with alchohol and that this had been a flimsy explanation.
Tests showed otherwise, he had been poisoned and speculation was rife that it was a plot to destroy his looks, and make him less electable.
He had stated in his election manifesto that he wanted to take Ukraine much further out of Russian sphere of influence.
The election which he originally lost, was grossly corrupt, favouring the pro Russian candidate.
After weeks of protest and tension, the scale of corruption became clear, and he won the rerun.
Ironically, if the Russians had not allegadly interfered with the election, it would have been a much more closely run thing, however ther is a great deal of suspicion about the pre-election opinion polls too, so maybe it wasn’t ever going to be close.
http://www.jfklibrary.org/pr_pica_2005_yushchenko_visit.html
During the electioneering, President Putin appeared on platforms to support Yushchenko’s political and pro-Russian rival.
I really cannot think of many elections where such blatent foreign interferance would be tolerated, it is almost treasonous for any candidate to accept such support.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2004
The Russians are screwing up bigtime, wether or not it is political or about trade.
The Russians had plenty of influence, but if they take these steps and damage the Ukraine economy, then its certain that influence will diminish rapidly, and now Yuschenko has a convenient scapegoat for any of his nations ills.
At an extreme, it might lead to some talk of the eastern districts of Ukraine breaking away for ‘independance’ which will be seen as a stopgap until they can merge with Russia, and I doubt seriously that it will be tolerated, other former Soviet republics may well start pressurising their Rusian mionorities too.
I think it is likely that if you are an Ethnic Russian in any of the former Soviet states, life is going to become very much harder, we’ve seen whar happened in the Baltic states where they denied ethnic Russians voting rights.
Putin cannot invade Ukraine as such, but he risks economic disaster just as the Russian economy is showing real signs of recovery if he continues on this path.
Can’t you?
That makes sense . . . So, why would they (the Russians) do it?
Sorry, I don’t recall that. Cite?
http://www.lichr.ee/eng/researchers.analysis/Integration.htm
You are not aware of the naturalisation rules that the Baltic states have ?
After gaining their independance, there were large minorities of ‘planter’ Russians, up to 40% or the total populations in the Balts.
Each of those states undertook a citizenship program, those who were resident before 1940 were automatically entitled to Balt citizenship, everyone else had to apply.
The application process was not too onerous, but without it you cannot vote.
http://www2.rnw.nl/rnw/en/features/cultureandhistory/latvian011220.html
Bear in mind that its probably harder to acquire US citizenship in many ways, though I guess this is not a truly accurate analogy.
Ostensibly, everyone could apply, even that approach was agreed very reluctantly, however so far, and for whatever reasons, most of the Russian ethinc minority have not applied., and others have had difficulty in meeting the Balt requirements for citizenship.
Something like 20-25% of ethnic Russians have been granted Balt statehood, leaving out the overwhelming majority who have no nationality at present, unless they happen to hold Russian or other dual citizenship passports.
The Russian minority have not helped themselves too much, most do not speak the native languages of the Balt states, and they don’t feel that they have to either, instead they are waiting for outside intervention by the EU or Russia as the Balts seek to establish normal relations internationally.
The reality is that in Russia, the Balt Russians are something of a political football and the issue is exploited regularly by nationalist Russians in Russia, who actually benefit from this in the polls and it can be argued that they actually would not want this issue solved.
Its actually quite a problem, it definately impededs the attempts of the Balts to join the EU as it contravenes several parts of the EU convention on human rights, and the UN convention on Human rights, where individuals have an absolute right to nationality.
http://www.allaboutlatvia.com/article/65/russia-and-latvia
As for foreign intervention in elections, when did you ever hear of, say, a UK prime minister actually standing on a platform alongside US presidential candidates during an election address.
Sure there has often been interferance by one nation in the election processes of others, but never as overt as Putin.(actually I think I can recall Congo or Rwanda where this also happened but this was during peacekeeping operations anyway)
As to why the Russians would do this, well there is a significant Russian presence in Ukraine in the form of left behind citizens, maybe its to try bring Ukraine to heel, or maybe it really is economic but it has more liklehood of causing economic damage than it has of benefit.
How “to heel”? That is, what exactly does the Russian government want the Ukrainian government to do?
Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been strained over all sorts of issues, such as Black sea access and the Blackj sea fleet, and some border disputes leading to the latter wanting to become much less reliant upon Russia for trade, and energy among other things.
Russia is still suffering from post Soviet superpower breakup, and tries to ensure that it has governments around it that it approves of, which has not always happened to Russia’s liking.
One serious problem that Russia does have with Ukraine is that Ukraine has had some talks with NATO about enlargement into he former Eastern bloc nations.
Ukraine takes the stance that it would prefer this not to happen by offering alternatives and negotiations, whereas Russia does position is much more defined as a ‘not in my back yard at all’ policy.
I doubt that Ukraine would wish to become all that involved in NATO, and I also don’t think that Ukraine would want to be effectively a buffer state btween new NATO nations and Russia.
One thing that drives relations between the two is that the economies of both were centrally controlled and industries therefore straddle the two, leading to interdependance, the nuclear power industry being one example where mining is carried out in one, Ukraine, processing in Russia, and use of those products in both, it leads to disputes about relative values of input and how to bill each other.
I guess what Russia wants is for Ukraine to basically roll over and do everything the Russian way, either by co-operation, or otherwise.
From Putin’s POV, he does not have to make much of a swing in voter opinion to oust Yuschenko, as long as he can be assured of a monolithic ethnic Russian vote within Ukraine for one candidate, all he needs do is ensure a split in the Ukrainian vote between two or more candidates.