Looking at the538 election map, we see Obama taking the west coast and the north central and north east, while Romney has the south (with the exception of Florida) and the rural mid-west. However tucked between Dark Blue illinois and medium Blue Ohio, is the bright red state of Indiana. Obama took Indiana in 2008 by (although it was close), but now seems to have no chance.
Any dopers have any idea of that state’s demographics or local politics that make it Romney country?
Well, if their license plates are any indication, the whole state loves God long time. Also, last time I drove into the Indiana border going from Dayton Ohio to Indianapolis, there were multiple billboards professing the state’s undying love both unborn children and the creator. Never seen that in any other State other than Indiana.
Those type of billboards are pretty commonplace in the rural Midwest.
I don’t know but according to his website right this second, Obama has a 373% chance of winning which is pretty damn good. But then again Romney has a 272% chance.
Poor Romney can’t even come out ahead when the computers hit a bug.
My off-the-cuff guess is that most of Indiana is like downstate Illinois only without the mitigation of a major city. Chicago makes up about 20% of Illinois’s population; Indianapolis makes up about 13% of Indiana’s (that’s city pop, not metro area).
I’ll be the first to admit that I haven’t exactly researched this though.
One of the things Obama has going for him this time around in Indiana is the US Senate race. Long time Senator Dick Lugar got knocked out in the primaries by a nutjob Teabagger, and the democrat is actually ahead in some of the polls. I wish the Obama folks would pour some money and time into Indiana, I think it could be a good return on the investment.
Remember Richard Lugar, the highly respected Republican seantor from Indiana? The one who was first elected in 1976, chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and was likely to be elected President Pro Tem if the Republicans win the Senate this year?
That guy was soundly defeated in the primary this spring by the Tea Party candidate, Richard Mourdock. It’s an indication that the voter climate in the Hoosier state has soured.
Indiana’s been Republican for a long time - basically since the Republican party has existed.The last time before 2008 they went Democratic was 19-Barry-Goldwater-64. The other times are exceptional, too - FDR’s first and second term, Wilson winning in 1912 because of the Bull-Moose Party…
Obama only won in 2008 because John Mellencamp campaigned hard for Obama in Indiana, and then the margin was razor-thin.
It’s really Illinois that’s more the exception - if Illinois were red, Indiana would look pretty normal - just the northeastern tip of the solid red south-central. And outside of Cook County, Illinois is red.
A number of states have “In God We Trust” plates. The thing that makes them far more common in Indiana is that there’s no specialty license plate fee for them, but they do have to be special-ordered, otherwise you get this.
Since no one has actually attempted to answer the OP’s question, I’ll make a brief stab. (Editing after preview: some of the following points have been made as I typed this out.)
Indiana’s primarily a rural state, and yes, heavily religious. There are a few blue/purple counties – Marion County, state-boundary cities that act as blue-color suburbs to larger cities in the neighboring state, such as Gary, IN for Chicago, IL. , and counties dominated by large colleges like IU. The red counties are rural and white-collar suburban, such as the eight counties that surround Marion County/Indianapolis. The red and blue populations statewide are tilted slightly in favor of red, but the blue areas are the most populous, urban, and industrialized counties.
In 2008, Obama was able to take the state due to a combination of Republican apathy, excitement for Obama, and an intense grassroots campaign. However, his election also triggered a very deep resentment among a lot of Republicans, and Tea Party views got a deep hold in local politics and reinvigorated Republican voters who had sat out 2008, which continues to be a popular influence locally… Richard Lugar, one of the most respected currently-serving senators, lost his primary to a Tea Party-backed candidate in 2012, even after Tea Party ideals seem to have been moderated somewhat in other states.
In addition, Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor reelected in 2008 despite a series of controversies (the IBM welfare boondoggle, toll road privatization, daylight savings time) has been seen in a far more favorable light thanks to a relatively healthy state economy during the recession (and the massive state accounting errors seem to have rolled off his back), luring and keeping manufacturing jobs, while espousing things like property tax reform, less union power/a push for “at will” employment, and budget austerity that ring true for Republicans. He’s seen as a mover and shaker in the larger Republican Party, and was recently tapped to become president of Purdue University, so there’s a bit of a halo effect that can make Hoosiers more predisposed to lean Republican if they may have been unsure before.
Finally, in this election, the continuing popularity of anti-Obama rhetoric has rallied formerly apathetic red voters; as many flubs as Romney has made, his campaign has been more sane than McCain/Palin, which will turn off fewer voters who tend red; and the Obama grassroots campaign is far less impressive than it was in 2008 (I’m thinking that they realized 2008 was a fluke, and they’re not sinking as much money in to a state that barely went blue when they held more of the cards).
Ohio, Indiana and Illinois are very similar states, and whether the state leans Dem or GOP depends on the balance between big cities and small towns. Contributing to the Dem presence in Indiana, you have not only Indianapolis but also Lake County, which is essentially suburban Chicago. I don’t see why Obama can’t win Indiana again, but if he wins there, he would already have won a majority in the Electoral College.
You’re entirely correct. It’s a rural/urban divide just like in Illinois. If you look at Indiana’s Congressional Districts you’ll see that of the nine districts two are overwhelming Democratic (one centered on Gary/East Chicago and one centered on Indianapolis), one is mildly Republican (the rest of the Region Rats in the NW) and the other six are firmly Republican.
This is basically in line with population density in Indiana.
This.
Ohio gets some blue love from several less-rural areas (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Toledo, etc). Indiana only really has Indianapolis.
Is it worth spending the big money to maybe win Indiana at 50.1% when he doesn’t really need IN to win the whole thing anyway? Put that money toward Florida and Ohio. Even though he’s got leads there, Obama should do what he can to lock those up.
And the Chicago suburbs in NW Indiana.
I want Obama to win, then I want him to point to Indiana and say “Hoosier Daddy?”. He won’t, because he has taste and grace, which I am not burdened with.
Yes. The more states he wins, in the more regions, especially including in traditional GOP strongholds, the stronger his mandate will be. Indiana, with its KKK history, is a prize, so is North Carolina, and they’re both winnable once again. It would be too much to ask for the Dems to become the default party there so soon, but Obama does have to look past Election Day and even beyond his own departure from office.
If he can help break up the Solid South on a relatively permanent basis, the country will be better off for it in the long term. Having Virginia, the heart of the Confederacy, now becoming pretty reliably progressive is a major advance, for instance, but it needs to continue.
You have a point there, but Obama could also get the added benefit of another democratic Senate seat in the process.
Democrat Joe Donnelly pulls ahead in tight Indiana Senate race
As I said, I didn’t count metro areas. If I had, the Chicago-Illinois metro area as a percentage of IL’s total population (66%) would still dwarf Indianapolis’s metro area plus the Chicago-Indiana metro region as a percentage of Indiana’s total population (25%).
But then you’re making broader assumptions than feel comfortable with even for my loose guesses.
There’s also a tactical point; if you can afford to spend money on longshot states (Indiana; Electoral-Vote.com mentioned Arizona today), that forces the other guy to also spend money on those states. (For ads and such. Mostly ads.) Which in turn is money that isn’t available to be spent in Florida or Ohio or Virginia. These guys are raising pretty enormous amounts of money; but neither of them has infinite money.
