Hmm… I’m not aware that there is any practical way for us to know as fact the exact numbers of crimes committed by anyone, sorted by race or no. Do you contend that such a method exists? Do you contend that if such a method did exist, that you could predict which race would turn out, in fact, to have committed more crimes? What is your evidence to support this assertion?
If you meant to say that some races are accused, arrested, or convicted of crimes more often than others, then you might be able to support such an assertion. However, there is no guarantee that the number of crimes committed is strictly proportional to these more easily measured factors.
Well back when I was in school they taught us there is a way called statistics. If you know the population then you can know how big your sample needs to be in order to be representative. Once you know this number you can call that many people and ask them about crimes they have been a victim of. You can then apply this rate to the larger population and know approximately how many crimes took place in the larger population. You would then compare this to police reports and see if they match up. The national crime victimization survey does this and from that we can know how many crimes have happened, to whom the happened, and who committed the crimes.
So if it is not true that black people commit more crime then statistics and survey methodology as we know it is incorrect and all of the correct predictions that science has made were just lucky guesses. Either that or people are lying to the survey in a way that matches up to crime reports given to police. Given that most crime victims report that the criminal is the same race they are and black people are much more likely to report being the victim of a crime, it would mean that black people are either pretending to be victims at a incredibly high rate relative to the rest of the country or they are lying about the race of the criminal for some reason.
Do you have any reason why statistics is no longer or valid or why black people enjoy lying about being crime victims or should we assume that the statistics is correct and black people are telling the truth?
Cultural changes are generally slow and not easily done from the outside. There a couple of things that can be done that over time would change things.
The biggest change is more aggressive policing of black areas. If people feel like they have a legal recourse then they are less need to advertise their toughness and willingness to fight to protect themselves and their possessions. Also, marginal criminals would be motivated to go straight because of a higher likelihood of being caught.
If you look at the drop in crime since the early 1990s most of it is because of fewer black criminals and the tough on crime policies of that time are likely a big reason.
Moreover if you look at what happened in Baltimore and St. Louis last year after the Michael Brown and Freddy Gray protests, you see that as police backed off crime skyrocketed in those cities.
Another change would be drug decriminalization. That would take much of the excessive profits out of the drug trade and deprive criminal gangs much of the money they make from that trade. It would also get rid of much the reason they are shooting each other over territory. It would probably lead to large health problems in the black community but it would be better in the long run.
Change paroleto the system pioneered in Hawaii that gives small punishments for each infraction instead of large random punishments for infractions.
Another change would be to change policies such as alimony and child support in a way that keeps families together and makes it harder to divorce. This is a complicated policy and likely would be difficult to change things in a positive way but it needs more study.
These are not factual statements – from the statistics I’ve seen, there has not been anything like a crime rate “skyrocket” increase following the protests in Baltimore or St. Louis. And it has not been confirmed in any way that the decrease in crime (which happened pretty much throughout the industrialized world, as I understand it) since the 90s is due to “tough on crime” policies.
Baltimorein 2015 had the highest murder rate in all its recorded history. It went from 217 to 353 which is a 62% rise. That is after over twenty years of almost uninterrupted decline.
Crime in St. Louis was also up significantly. Murders in the first half of the year were up 50%over the previous year.
You may not call that skyrocketing but I sure would.
Many people think that the decrease in crime was because of less lead or more abortions. I agree with them on the lead but that is not the whole story. Crime has many causes. However, there has been no change in lead levels in those cities in the past year and a half yet crime rates are skyrocketing just after those cities were rocked by anti police riots. It may be a coincidence but I doubt it.
I know that crime rates have increased, but according to the data I’ve seen, the increase had already started months before the protests, and may have been totally unrelated. Significant spikes seem to happen year-to-year and month-to-month without a clear cause.
Wow, that’s amazing how you can quantify all crime with some surveys!
Please, educate me, how will your victimization surveys determine the exact number of times, say, perjury is committed, and by whom? How about littering? Shoplifting? Bribing of public officials? Reckless driving? Criminal trespass? Slander? Fraud?
Racist? The thing about black people that makes them commit more crimes is not that they’re black but that they’re poorer. That’s not racism, just an unfortunate fact. When inequalities in income level out then these differences will disappear.
Always with the racism! It isn’t responsible for everything.
I guess this is your way of acknowledging that the statistics for murder, rape, assault, and robbery are correct and that black people do commit more those crimes at a higher rate. Since we are talking about incarceration and most incarcerations are for violent and serious crimes, then even if white people committed littering and slander at higher rates it would not make a difference to incarceration rates.
No, if I had wanted to state that I would have said so. I would also ask you to not to invent from whole cloth claims that I acknowledge things when the text I wrote did no such thing.
Trying to move the goalposts to a tiny subset of all crimes is not a valid tactic, or did they not teach you anything about debating back when you were in school? To remind you of what we’re discussing, here’s your claim again- you did not limit your claim of knowledge to violent crimes or to crimes resulting in incarceration: (nor does the OP of this thread limit itself in such a manner)
So, were you making a broad claim about race that you have no evidence to support, or can you provide such evidence for any of the types of crimes I mentioned?
You need to reread the thread. The entire discussion that puddleglum was talking about was about incarceration rates, and in that context it’s obvious that “crime” refers to crimes that result in incarceration.
It’s you who moved the goalposts by introducing crimes that don’t typically result in incarceration. That has nothing to do with the discussion.