They’re not past the lab stage. They just skipped it. This went into P1 without a drop of animal data to suggest that this works. Phase 1 drugs are inherently risky, but they almost always have some efficacy data. There was been no preclinical derisking in this case.
I am asking because I genuinely don’t know and am curious… how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing?
This is the advice I will follow. “Early adopter” and “test rat” are not my middle names.
Animal testing can prove some elements of safety and efficacy, but of course that’s why you move on to clinical trials in humans.
An obvious difficult in vaccine testing is that you can’t actually determine its true effectiveness until a substantial number of subjects have been given time to be exposed and to see what their rates of infection are (well, once we get into Phase II and III). With these tests they’ll be measuring antibodies, of course, to estimate efficacy. But it’ll be an estimate, and hell, they’ll be running the numbers for DECADES in the postmarketing study.
You’ve apparently seen separate percentages for being of given ages without other health problems, and for being in particular age groups with particular health problems. Could you link to that information?
I’ve seen lots of statistics giving percentage of complications by age, by heart condition, by diabetes, and so on. But I haven’t seen anything clarifying to what extent the risk of age is due to the greater prevalence in older people of other health conditions; or what the percentages are for people who have multiple risks: i.e., if you’re in your late 60’s with a heart condition and controlled diabetes, what’s the percentage risk for that combination? I presume one doesn’t just add up the separate percentages.
Find an animal that is affected is easiest way.
There is a humanized mouse model, where lung tissue from humans can be implanted to assess damage. Could be adapted here. Unfortunately, it requires fetal tissue which the Trump administration banned federal research on.
When a tested and known-effective vaccine becomes available, there will be only a limited supply at first, such that not everyone will be able to get it right away. I expect that public health organizations will issue guidelines on who should be prioritized for vaccination, and I have no reason to expect that I would be on that list (or at least, I shouldn’t be).
If I get vaccinated early, it would be as part of the experimentation phase. For that, they start with healthy volunteers, to see if they stay healthy (as opposed to suffering significant side effects). I might be willing to volunteer for such an experimental program, with appropriate compensation and under appropriate medical supervision.
When a tested and known-effective vaccine becomes available, there will be only a limited supply at first, such that not everyone will be able to get it right away. I expect that public health organizations will issue guidelines on who should be prioritized for vaccination, and I have no reason to expect that I would be on that list (or at least, I shouldn’t be).
If I get vaccinated early, it would be as part of the experimentation phase. For that, they start with healthy volunteers, to see if they stay healthy (as opposed to suffering significant side effects). I might be willing to volunteer for such an experimental program, with appropriate compensation and under appropriate medical supervision.