Yes, but we’re all trying to illustrate the fact that, as petrol has hit the equivalent of USD$4/gallon elsewhere and chaos has NOT ensued, there’s nothing special about it finally hitting USD$4/gallon in the US itself either- ie, you’re not going to have hordes of Zombies spontaneously bursting forth from the netherworld, the sky will not fall, and The Macarena will never again be a number one hit. 
Not if demand drops like a rock before that point, which I believe it will. Within the next 20 years, alternative fuels, better engines, possibly even hydrogen will drive the demand for gasoline way down. At this point, of course, price will drop as well. Just my 2 cents of course.
That strikes me as entirely too optimistic, but is a valid opinion. Thanks for explaining.
I disagree.
the thing about the economic dislocations caused by rising gasoline prices is that, as currently constructed, the American economy isn’t designed for such prices. While it’s true that any price rise can be incorporated into the economy over the long haul over the short term, because of the inelasticity of gasoline demand, there can be very strong negative consequences to sudden jumps in gasoline prices.
In short, people will continue to drive (for work, shopping, whatever) because the american economy and society is built for driving. And nothing at all will prevent that in the near-term. Therefore a rise in gasoline prices impacts both consumers and businesses by increasing their overhead costs.
For businesses this means an increase in prices over time as the cost of gasoline (shipping, delivery, and so forth) goes up. In effect, anything that needs to be transported suddenly ends up costing more or it becomes financially unviable as a product.
And for the consumer there are two angles. One, gasoline goes up so overhead for commuting and other needs shoots up thereby denying those extra dollars for other consumer spending or (HA) savings. Two, with all other travel-impacted items getting more expensive the non-gasoline dollars available to spend now purchase fewer goods and services.
So just saying ‘It’s been that big over here and who cares?’ isn’t really a sound argument. The reason you’re stable at that level is that your society and economy have already adjusted and accounted for that reality. The American economy has potentially large problems with that adjustment before a new equilibrium can be found.
It definitely is optimistic. If I start thinking about gas prices at the $4 level, it causes me distress. I do honestly feel the advances in alternative fuels should be great if you are talking about a 20 year period of time. However, I could reasonably see gas hitting $4 before that. I just “feel” that it won’t happen. Maybe I am being too optimistic, but it keeps me going.
BTW, thanks for being cordial in disagreement–I always place a premium on that.
That’ll still cost you $27/month.
I’m betting on July 3, 2006.
Yes, but all this has already happened here in Australia over the last few months- this time last year Fuel was about AUD$0.85c/litre, now it’s AUD$1.30/litre. Our economy hasn’t collapsed, and aside from people bitching about the price of fuel, it really isn’t THAT big a deal in the grand scheme of things at the moment.
Prices on things have gone up, but not to the point where no one can afford to eat or anything like that.
Of course, when the first instinct of people in parts of the US is to either start looting or grab a gun and start shooting at people whenever disaster strikes, your results can and probably will vary…
Well that’s pretty offensive :rolleyes:
Well, it’s good to see that ignorance isn’t confined to one geographical area.
Sorry to hijack…Back to the OP
I think the whims of the oil companies will continue to follow the driving trends of the US, with a slight lowering towards May, an increase from Memorial Day to July 4, another dip midsummer and then UP, UP and AWAY just in time for Labor Day.
I’ll go with August 30th, 2006.
Don’t you people have Hyperbole?
I’m not implying everyone in the US is a gun toting looter (because that’s clearly not true), but you have to admit, the situation in New Orleans wasn’t exactly a PR campaign for How To Cope With Disaster, either…
Everyone sees a situation how they wish. You are choosing to focus on the few people who participated in such events. I’m sure the majority of the residents were not commiting these acts, but the minority who were got all the publicity of course.
How should one react during times of disaster, may I ask?
The political hype by the Bush Administration over Iran, coupled with China’s oil demand, will push the average price per gallon to $4.00 by the Fourth of July 2006. There may be up and down movement prior to that date, and after.
I do not believe the price of gas in the USA will ever go below $3.50/gallon once the $4.00/gallon limit is reached.
Yes, the SDMB has debated the entire oil price issue ad infinitum, and we will continune to do so in the GD. I believe the scientific debate is worthwhile. However, I believe the geopolitical gamesmanship will trump rationality every time. Ultimately, the price of oil is political, regardless of its true supply and demand.
There’s a photo going around of a Beverly Hills gas pump that displays $87 for a fillup at $4.049/gallon. That $4.049 is for full service premium, not self service regular.
That would be this one. So since it is full service high octane, and it’s by no means an average across the country, it doesn’t quite count - but it is still a wonder to behold.
Upon viewing the photo, you are permitted to touch your screen, but only once. The devil’s power is strong and may suck you in if you touch it again. Be careful.
I paid $3.38 for self serve premium yesterday. I don’t buy regular but I think it was $3.21.
The pundits keep asking about when will people say that enough is enough and simply stop driving. In SoCal? Never. We will pay what we have to. Why? Because our public transportation system sucks and many people (if not most) commute 20-30 miles eachway to work. There is no bus (or combination of two) that will take me from home to work, and I imagine a combination of three or more busses each way would take about 2 hours. Not workable, folks.
I tell my friends not to consider LA (and the surrounding areas) a “major city” like Boston, NYC, London, Chicago, etc, because those great cities are able to move lots of people efficiently without the necessity of a personal vehicle.
Nationwide average hits $4/gal by Labor Day Weekend,** if there’s no major production disruption (new war, Gulf hurricane, etc.), ** but** it does not become sustained ** at that level, rather it dips again and then has seasonal surges.
It applies here too. I live in the outer Boston area and my wife and I have a combined 190 miles per day round trip to work. We don’t work remotely close to one another and there is no combination of public transport that could take either of us to our work in less than 2 hours each way a piece plus we would have to drive 13 miles to the nearest commuter rail station anyway.
I am not moving because comparable housing would cost hundreds of thousands more closer to work and that equals a lifetime of higher gas prices.
I drive an SUV, I need it, and I will pay it. So will most people. The vast majority of people have made NO move towards lifestyle change based on gas prices yet. Hybrids don’t count because they mainly have environmental rather than economic advantages these days and tend to cost the owners more over the short-term.
I don’t no how high gas prices have to go before people start making real changes but we do know it is higher than now.
We’re immune. We buy in litres. Normal run-of-the-mill proces around here are CAD 1.07/litre = USD 3.56/US gallon.
Actually, gas prices will go to $8.00 a gallon ten minutes after I unexpectedly win a Hummer in a raffle.