As far as Virginia, he might tip it over to the Republicans, but then if the Republican candidate is a nut like Cruz or Trump, he might get some non-nutty Republican support.
Not that I think he’ll run. But we’ll see.
*It’s two “i’s”, then “andy”, then four “i’s”. Think of a guy named Andy putting glasses on.
No offense, but you’re the one who chose a visually confusing handle. It’s not other posters who are to blame if they get the wrong number of i’s in the wrong places.
I’ll be darned. I only saw three i’s at the end. So I was thinking like a conductor saying “two and ah (andy) three”.
I’m wondering if Webb is looking for a job doing political commentary. He can rant about both parties since he hasn’t worked out with either one.
I’m not blaming anyone, just trying to help. I know it’s hard to see, and I wish I had used a different one when I signed up.
I’ve been told that it’s memorable and sticks out, at least, so it’s not all bad.
So, now it’s official, Webb is out. At least for the moment.
I suppose a third party/independent could get some traction in this election cycle but I haven’t seen anything to make me think Webb would be the one who could influence the race in any way at all.
And of course, it is still unlikely to the point of impossible that any candidate who isn’t the GOP or Dem nominee will win the Oval Office.
Finally, the opening the Biden campaign has been looking for!
The Webb candidacy was odd to begin with, I read he had barely campaigned in New Hampshire, and vastly less in Iowa than any of the other candidates. Not sure what he was doing in the race at all, he was barely participating.
I think there are people who would vote for a candidate to the right of Hillary but the left of the crazy GOP crop, but that candidate needs broad enough appeal (and you know, a functioning campaign effort) to win a Democratic primary and Webb never had that. I agree his political position wouldn’t get him enough votes to matter as an independent. Sanders might get enough, because he’d appeal to a disenchanted far-left after his candidacy is ended by the big-money power brokers in the Democratic party. But Sanders would never deliberately Nader the party and risk putting a Republican in the White House in an era when demographics should make any Democrat win the EC in a walk.
Not only is VA in play, but it’s probably the most key of all the swing states. In the sentence “Whoever wins state X in November 2016 has a Y% chance of winning the White House” I’ll guess X=Virginia is the X which maximizes Y. I’ve not studied Nate Silver’s site, but I’d bet he agrees with this.
Jim Webb as Hillary’s VP running mate. Good idea?
@ iianyiiii - I eventually realized that I’d denied you your full I’s throughout the Karachi auction thread. I hope you didn’t take offense.
So naturally, while being careful about the i’s…
:smack: D’oh! You guys wouldn’t make so much fun of my typos (and thinkos) if you knew how decrepit is the keyboard (and brain) with which I’m forced to operate. :o
You’ve got good VA choices in Mark Warner and Tim Kaine; Jim Webb need not apply.
Not sure about what maximizes X but FWIW Colorado was Silver’s “tipping point state” in 08 and 12. Virginia though was notable for having been slightly more GOP leaning than the average in 08 (still going for Obama) turning to more Democratic leaning than US average in 12.
Still not much chance for a GOP presidential win if they cannot take VA. So might be the maximized X.
There is an interesting arithmetic fact about the Electoral College vote coming up in 14 months. (Are foreigners surprised the U.S. Pres. election attracts such interest so early?)
Simplest is to consider that there are specifically six swing states:
[ul][li]Virginia 13[/li]Wisconsin 10
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
[/ul]
When you work out the arithmetic details of EV, goal being victory (269 for GOP, 270 for Demo) the 13-10-9-6-6-4 vote weights can be very accurately modeled as 2-2-1-1-1-1 !!
North Carolina, Florida and Ohio might be considered swing states, but the GOP will very likely lose if it doesn’t take all three. Pennsylvania is even more likely than Wisconsin or Nevada to vote Republican, but I omit it for two reasons: (a) eager Demos would otherwise hijack to claim PA will stay in line easily, and (b) the Demos will almost certainly lose if PA does fall to the enemy* even if it wins all six swingstates in the above list* :-- Post morteming that case will just bring more tears.
The electoral vote stands at 253 to 237 in favor of the GOP in the conditions just described. GOP needs 17 to win, or rather just 16 given the H.R. tiebreaker. The Demos need 33 to win.
*** The GOP wins the White House if it wins any three of the six swingstates.
What’s so interesting? Colorado (9) has the exact same value as Iowa (6) has in the election. Wisconsin (10) is much more significant than Colorado, is almost as good as Virginia (13).
(Note: Silver’s elasticity parameters were used in the development of the list of swingstates. AFAIK, none were injured or treated inhumanely.)
I think Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire are tied for 2nd in the maximizing Y contest. But in terms of its electoral college importance, Colorado is no bigger than Iowa, indeed bigger than NH only in an unlikely scenario. Virginia would be the big important win for the GOP. (Hopefully, the Demos will get Wisconsin. :eek: But Watch out! :eek: )
Wisconsin? Wisconsin has not gone GOP since 1984. And it has increased its Hispanic populationfrom 3.6 to 6.1% from 2000 to 2011. It’s no swing state.
New Hampshire is a bit less of a reach. They’ve gone more D than the national vote the last two times at least, were D in 2004 as well but they did go R in 2000. And going back to 1988 and before they had been reliably GOP. It’s more of an actual swing state.
North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio all have been relatively GOP leaning … all more GOP than was the national vote margin … in both 2008 and 2012. If the national vote had been 50/50 they’d all have been expected to fall on the GOP side as a bloc in both 2008 and 2012 … and the electoral college would still have gone to Obama, even if Virginia (which has been near the edge with the national vote both times) also had flipped. They’d also have needed Colorado or Pennsylvania, the latter of which is not so swingy: PA has not gone GOP since 1988 and has been solidly more D than the national vote in both last elections.
But agreed VA is a key state and can go either way in a close election. The GOP has few paths without it and the Democratic candidate can afford to lose both Colorado and New Hampshire, along with Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, if they (s)he holds it along with the other remaining states Obama won.
Webb recently made news when he told Morning Joe on MSNBC that I won’t vote for Clinton, but I may for Trump.
As someone with relatives in VA, I paid attention to Webb and this is really disappointing to me.
Webb was a center-left Senator whose positions on almost everything mirrors Clinton’s. He certainly doesn’t mirror Trump and as much of a war-hawk that Clinton is accused of being, Trump seems a lot more likely to start shooting at someone and Webb supposedly was quite anti-war.
This seems like a spiteful move from him for reasons I cannot ascertain but it makes me sad - and I am not even a Hillary supporter (though I have come to terms I will be voting for her in the general).
Jim Webb has sort of made a career goal of alienating the entire political spectrum. He is a political non-entity at this point, although reporters still seek him out because his often petulant manner sometimes produces a sharply-worded quote.
Just remember that his petulance was cheered enough by Democrats that he got the first SOTU response after the 2006 election.
I might vote for him over Clinton or Trump.
I’d vote for him in a heartbeat. He’s got an exemplary record in both parties without being a flip flopper. Which just shows exactly how middle of the road he is.
He’s a DINO. Let him join the Republicans.