Really?
Is that common, widely held belief? Biden scares the hell out of me. IMO he is the very definition of the same status quo that Hillary brought only in male form and definitely without Hillary’s baggage and lack of trustworthiness… /shrug maybe i just talked myself into it but… :dubious:
Are you sure he didn’t steal that moxie from Neil Kinnock?
You nailed what I am personally 100% certain is THE most important facet of the 2020 election for Democrats. The Dems need a conservative Democrat to win back votes to the party. Ultra progressives like Warren and Bernie are too polarizing to win back the belters. They need a candidate that former Democratic, former Obama voters can get behind without feeling like they have to do a 180.
I am very nervous the party will not realize this and I would wager money on a candidate like Warren losing to Trump. :eek:
Well said… it is frustrating that we do not have an energetic candidate that can win over more than just those that vote for Team Blue regardless… and that maybe is under 60!
We have a guy in Missouri named Jason Kander who ran against the ultra corrupt, long standing republican Roy Blunt and damn near beat him for a US Senate seat (49-46). Former police officer, enlisted in National Guard after 9/11 while attending Georgetown. Volutneered for an afganistan tour as an intelligence office and young… there are probably 50 good, modern, sensible up and coming democrats like this across the country… we just need one to get some traction and replace the old guard in the next 6-10 years.
First of all, you have to figure out what the conditions are going to be:
Any of those things might influence who wins even more than who the candidate is.
What’s wrong with status quo? Trump is super non-status quo, he is the very opposite. Have things been good?
Thought it might be interesting to throw this CNN article, out today, into the discussion.
What do you folks think about those criteria and CNN’s picks?
Sherrod Brown. Pros: takes a populist to beat a populist. Cons: nasty divorce with claims of abuse against him; white male. (Note: this is CNN’s take, not mine.)
Mitch Landrieu. Pros: an “outsider with experience,” mayor of Black-majority city in party with large Black voting bloc. Cons: Mitch who? Also, “potholes in his record.”
Corey Booker. Pros: has already generated big press, Dems have a history of nominating first full-term Black senators who’ve given big Dem. convention speeches. Cons: neo-liberal, ties to Wall Street.
Steve Bullock (MT gov.). Pros: growth of Dems in the West and success of governors as Pres. candidates–Bullock is in best position among this group. Cons: Steve who?
Eric Holder. Pros: Obama connection who, like Trump, grew up in Queens. Cons: CNN lists none.
Bernie Sanders. Pros: beloved among Dems, proven vote-getter who did well in primaries. Cons: Is he really a Democrat?
Kristen Gillibrand. Pros: voted with Trump fewer times than any other senator, a woman, from NY. Cons: past record as moderate.
Kamala Harris: Pros: Black and Indian woman (“sharp contrast” with Trump) with a strong law-and-order background as former CA AG; massive $$ to Dems from California. Cons: None listed.
Elizabeth Warren. Pros:
Cons: GOP salivates at the idea of ultra-liberal Warren running against Trump.
Bullock has a good platform if the goal is to appeal to the Rust Belt - which seems like a pretty good idea. The Democratic party needs to penetrate the non-coastal and rural territory of the country.
He won a red state and he’s popular there.
Seeing him speak live, he doesn’t suck. Decent looks.
I can think of a dozen or so guys that I know personally, who voted for Donald Trump, that I would bet my last dollar would have voted for Webb if the choices were between Webb and Trump.
People revere the military; they revere Marines; they revere (rightly or wrongly) Reagan, who Webb served under as Secretary of the Navy; and the fact that he was openly pro-gun would seal the deal.
I am POSITIVE that a lot of guys like this would have looked at their two options and chose the conservative military Southern Democrat over the Republican from New York who looks and acts like a clown. POSITIVE of it.
Imagine Trump trying to debate Webb. Trump had a million things he could throw at Hillary and have the crowd roaring with laughter; she had so much baggage and so many things that were ripe for mockery; what could Trump have done with Webb? All of Trump’s “tough talk” would seem ridiculous compared to the guy who has actually killed other people.
Comey said he was a crook. I’m liable to trust his opinion.
While I think that she will be the 2020 nominee (particularly if Biden doesn’t run), she seems to have no personal convictions of note. She’s liable to come across as young Hillary Clinton.
Now, granted, there won’t be 20 years of conspiracy theories about her, but that still seems like a bad idea to run a Clinton-like person against Trump, when he has already won once against a Clinton-like person.
Too liberal.
Maybe she would have won right after the financial crisis, when everyone hated the banks. Now, she’s just too liberal.
Well, he would have won if he’d ran in 2016. And now he’ll come back with a personal hatred of Trump, from seeing how he trashed everything Obama built, that he might have the sort of passion and fire to mobilize the left, without having to be a crazy lefty.
I think this thread demonstrates why Democrats will not win in 2020. The party (including the rank and file) doesn’t understand why they lost in 2016. There will be a fair number in both parties that will vote for the R or D after the name regardless of the person running so ignore those for a second. Enough people voted *against Hillary *in key states for her to lose. She did not campaign in key states, she was arrogant and fake and elitist. She was not likable at all but the Democrat Party wants to spin it as “most qualified candidate ever” and “Bernies Bros screwed us” and deplorable Trumpinistas but if they took an honest look at 2016 they would see that the reason they lost was they ran the one candidate who many swing voters consider worse than Trump.
So here’s the secret to winning in 2020, run ANYONE not as hated as Hillary. That’s all. Pick someone not ultra-Progressive like Warren or crazy-as-hell like Maxine Waters and you will win easily.
I think this’ll do better over in Elections.
Yep, just pick some reasonable and trustworthy person who will do the work and represent everyone.
This is actually a serious suggestion: The Rock.
No experience. Tell him to run for Mayor or Governor or something.
Experience, expertise, and policy have been proven not to matter by the election of Trump. The more “manly” man will win this next round, just like most Presidential elections. You want someone that can beat Trump? The Rock would. He may be a terrible president though.
This thread has a great excess of opinions and a sad lack of data-driven arguments. Obviously a lot can change over the next 2 1/2 years, but as it stands pretty much anyone with a pulse would be heavily favored against Trump. His approval rating is eleven points underwater as of today, for God’s sake! All we need to do is check the polls and see “Do most Americans actively dislike this person?”. If the answer is “no”, we’re good to go. That’s the step we skipped last time.
People act like Trump is some kind of formidable opponent. He’s just not. He lost the popular vote to Hillary Fucking Clinton, for God’s sake (yeah, I know that’s not the one that counts, the point is he came very close to losing to a horribly unpopular opponent, and that was BEFORE people got a taste of what a disastrous shitshow his Presidency has been).
So let’s nominate someone we actually like and think will do a good job. If we really want to play it safe, we should nominate Bernie Sanders, who is the most popular politician in America and was leading Trump by ten points in hypothetical polls at the time he dropped out of the race. His policies are also the best for America moving forward IMO. The only drawback is that he’s ridiculously old. My hope is that he won’t run again himself, but will throw his support and the backing of his national organization to some younger progressive.
I’m very interested in Jeff Merkley. He was the only Senator to endorse Bernie, and has been seen sniffing around Iowa in recent months. I have a lot of friends and family in Oregon who all love him, but I haven’t seen him speak, so don’t know about the charisma factor. I also really like Tammy Baldwin – a progressive lesbian with proven Rust Belt appeal, what’s not to like? – but haven’t seen any signs that she’s running.
Not sure why all the love for Biden. You guys know he’s run for President twice before and gotten nowhere, right? And, also, way too old. My impression is that pretty much all Democrats like him well enough, but few are really super enthusiastic. He seems like the archetypal candidate who leads the polls early because of name recognition, but will fade as people get to know the other candidates better.
Rolling my eyes at the folks saying we need to nominate a conservative Southern white guy. Yeah, because Americans would never elect a non-white President. Oh, wait… And HRC didn’t lose because she was a woman, she lost because, not to sound like a broken record, most Americans don’t like or trust her. That’s largely due to the 25 year smear campaign against her, and it’s not fair, but that and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee.
There’s no way in hell the Democrats are going to nominate anyone who isn’t strongly in favor of gun control, any more than they’re going to nominate a pro-lifer or someone who opposes gay marriage. There are parts of the country where Democrats holding those positions can win primaries, but on the national level, that ship has sailed.
I think that Trump is a reaction to a Black President, and a minority member or a woman would kill the Democratic ticket, but I believe that Biden could win.
As should be clear from the above post, I hate this idea. But it is fun to imagine what would happen if Trump tried to invade his personal space during the debate…
I personally just like Jim Webb, I don’t support any other conservative Southern white guys that some have proposed. Also I don’t think the racial element is as important as some make it out to be. The right candidate could be black or any other non-European-descended ethnic group and win, if it’s a good strong candidate who can generate excitement and give it to Trump in the debates. I don’t know if we’re ready for a woman yet though. There may still be too much sexism among the population for a female president at this point in time.