Bland centrist Clinton lost those states, so I don’t get your meaning.
Clinton was helped by Perot taking votes and also Bush Sr and Dole were pretty weak candidates . Also the economy was not very good in 92. BTW I know Perot took votes from both sides in 92. Bush Sr mainly won in 88 because they figured he was just going to keep the Reagan ideas going and the economy was OK.
I can’t see Harris or Warren winning over Trump but of the 2 Harris might be a bit better because she could bring in the younger vote and black vote.
Clinton lost. Full stop. Has nothing to do with her ideology. She didn’t appeal to the blue collars or the urban voters. *She *just wasn’t appealing to a lot of people. Again, it had nothing to do with her ideology.
I can speak for Michigan best: Progressive doesn’t play well statewide. Moderate-friendly union-friendly Gretchen Whitmer just smoked her competition in the gubernatorial primary. Eight years ago, a moderate Republican whooped a far-left Democrat (Snyder over Bernero). Hillary lost Michigan by 11,000 votes. A little bit more attention to Detroit, Flint, Muskegon, Grand Rapids or Lansing, she wins. But *she *was unappealing, as was her lack of messaging.
I guaran-dang-tee you, there is nothing far-left about the Michigan electorate. I daresay it’s the same in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio, outside of a few pockets. Warren and Harris will struggle here, just as Hillary did, I suspect.
Yeah, there’s only 14.6 million of them, and they vote. That’s about 20% of the party.
No, Liberal democrats outnumber anyon other group. Not “very liberal”.
I see your point when it comes to state-level races, but
in the case of a presidential campaign, I don’t agree. Obama was painted as a radical Muslim socialist, and he won all those states, as well as ruby red Indiana. His, and Trump’s, election proved that in our modern social media obsessed, celebrity-worshipping society, the path to victory is to maximize your party’s turnout, while the political middle/idiots vote for whoever is the most exciting & charismatic. Ideology doesn’t matter- any voter who cares about a candidate’s politics is probably already leaning towards one party or the other.
I don’t think Warren or Harris would be likable enough to make the 2nd part of that equation work tbh. But other similar candidates might.
20% & shrinking every year. I wouldn’t call that a base. Meanwhile, more than double that voted for an avowed democratic socialist in 2016 (a lot of whom were union members themselves). Yet people write them off as bernie bros and purity ponies who should have no voice in the direction of the party. Amazing.
At the end of the day, Obama was a moderate Democrat from the Midwest who had strong ties to unions, especially in Chicago.
I agree charisma matters-- call it swagger and meme-ability, and I’ve been saying all along that charisma and messaging are the ultimate factor. But I think a moderate that appeals to midwesterners is also important. You don’t think a navy SEAL, the guy who killed bin Laden, a Texan named “McRaven” has the swagger and meme-ability to pull that off? I do.
ETA: If he can’t articulate a clear message and effectively hit his competition with it, all bets are off, however.
When you put it that way, it does indeed sound like an appealing campaign. But he has to win the primaries first, and keep the party excited until election day. Can he navigate the tricky waters of identity politics? Does he have a coherent economic message, which is vital? Will he have enough crossover appeal to rope in enough factions from the D’s big tent? I wouldn’t mind seeing him actually run and pulling it off.
Nope, many of them were legit supporters. Most of them were.
But a few kept attacking Hillary, with fake news from the kremlin, no less- long after Bernie was known to have lost.
And a number stayed home or voted 3rd party, which gave us Trump.
Bernie brought in a lot of registered Independents, but many didn’t stick around to vote for Hillary.
And McRaven brings in the possibility of swinging Texas. A long shot, but Trump would have to campaign like crazy and not shoot his foot off.
Seriously. Bill McRaven-Hilda Solis would flip it I think.
And nearly a quarter of Clinton primary voters went with McCain over Obama in 08, double the percentage of Bernie voters who switched over to Trump in 2016.
So sick of this revisionist history.
So? Still, in critical states, Clinton lost due to bad dem turnout or 3rd party votes.
I dont think many Bernie fans voted for Trump but they sure as fuck didnt vote for Clinton. Not enough of them, anyway.
n Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, one could plausibly blame third parties for the outcome. In Michigan, Clinton lost by less than a percentage point, a deficit she could have recovered from with half of Stein’s votes. Again in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Clinton lost by one point, Jill Stein’s votes would have covered her loss. Had Clinton won all three states, she would have won the election.
So she was such a bad candidate, that losing half the amount of support to other candidates that Obama did was enough to do her in. If anything, Sanders voters were more loyal to the Democratic party in 2016 than her voters were in 08.
Regardless, the onus is not on Sanders voters to put her over the finish line. She needed to work to get those votes, like any politician. That’s why unity tickets exist- she didn’t have to choose Sanders as VP, but she could have involved him in the selection process. Hold a press conference with Sanders at your side, and announce that you are looking at a list of candidates that will help bridge the gap between the 2 sides. Make a goddamn show of it and excite people who felt gutted by the email bullshit. Instead she chose failed DNC head & wet blanket Tim Kaine.
Trump, meanwhile, chose Pence, who united the GOP and shored up his support among hardcore Christians, which was lacking until then.
Yes, it sure as fuck is. Either they are Democrats or they supported Trump. There was no middle ground in that election.
If your candidate doesn’t win in the primary, you “man up”, “put on your big girl panties” if if you have to - hold your nose. But you fucking Vote Democrat. *If not, stay the fuck out of the primary.
*
Tim Kaine also brought in Virginia.
Every major party candidate has bled same-party voters to the other side in recent presidential elections. The number of Sanders voters that defected was the standard expected amount, while Clinton’s voters defecting at a rate of 24% in 2008 was the major outlier. Of course, Obama was such a solid candidate who bought in scores of new voters and future loyal democrats (like Sanders would have), that it didn’t matter and he still won comfortably. Without turncoat Clinton voters we could’ve been looking at a lot more blue on the map in 08.
I think you’re right. The way Hillary snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016 is almost inexplicable and one of the great tragedies of our time. Why? Was it arrogance? Over-confidence? Is Bernie partly to blame for not working harder to elect her?
Failure to try harder in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan is inexcusable. A 7th-grader glancing at Nate Silver’s website could have told that these were the only states that mattered.
With the country in multiple crises and McCain going berserk by picking Sarah Palin, any white male Democrat would have won 2008 in a landslide. The reason a full ¼ — :eek: — of Hillary voters voted for McCain had nothing to do with Hillary.America is still hugely racist. There are many millions of Americans who would never vote for a black.
Traitor Trump is totally obvious. Problem is, the Democrats will be “too nice” to use it.
There’s three things that get overlooked when comparing ‘08 Clinton voters versus 16 Bernie voters.
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McCain was a sane choice for the GOP as opposed to Trump. It’s not ridiculous to think that with the economy in free fall, some people would want the experienced McCain over the young and relatively inexperienced Obama.
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A lot of Bernie voters may not voted for Trump, but not voting, leaving the top of the ballot blank, voting 3rd party, or doing a pointless write hurt just as bad.
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Where did the votes come from? ‘08 Hillary primary voters in solid red states that voted for McCain in the general election didn’t really hurt Obama, the only close state he didn’t win was Missouri. But pouting purity ponies in State College, Madison, and Ann Arbor could really hurt Hillary 2016 since the race was so close.
After seeing so much positive comment on the Admiral I had just about decided to investigate and become better informed on the man when I see your comment referring to a sitting U.S. Senator by the same pejorative that is used by Donald Trump. At that point I decided he could not possibly be someone I would want to vote for.