Any prediction like this, this early, is utterly worthless. No better than a wild guess. We have no idea.
We do. She has no background. Not much of a public speaker. A progressive San Franciscan. She scolds, and nothing the rest of America hates more that being scolded by someone from SF. She grandstands.
And I have no doubt the reason why she is the front runner is due to a lot of careful campaigning her PR firm has done, tossing her names out constantly.
We could say almost the same thing about Obama in 2006, aside from the nonsensical “scold” stuff (have you ever referred to a male politician as a scold?). I don’t buy such a superficial, and incredibly early, analysis.
From what I’ve seen she’s a capable speaker and comes across as very intelligent. You may disagree, but such an early prediction is just laughable nonsense. And it’d be the same if I predicted she’s great and would definitely be victorious.
She has also built her career on banning guns, which wont make her popular.
She does poll the worst of any of the contenders, although a lot of that could be due to name recognition.
But I’m not too worried. Right now, Democrats love her biography and her politics. But in order to win the nomination, she has to stand up and debate other Democrats and put forward policy papers. She’s just not in the intellectual class of the rest of the likely field. They’ll take her apart as nicely as possible.
I’d encourage everyone to go look at her Twitter account. You’ll never see a more shallow collection of tweets in your life.
She has zero charisma and she has a halting speaking style. Since you are so fond of bringing up my past record here, I’d remind you that you thought Hillary Clinton had charisma. And I guess, if we grade Harris on that curve, she is actually pretty charismatic. But she’s nowhere near Obama. She’s nowhere near even Biden, Booker, or Warren in that category. It’ll be clear pretty quickly that she doesn’t belong on the same stage.
Do you have a cite for this claim you’re making about me? I don’t recall exactly what I said, and I’d like to see the post you mean.
As for the rest, such early predictions and “analysis” are meaningless. There’s no point discussing them.
Would it be safe for me to predict that Michael Avenatti is very unlikely to win the nomination?
Probably (and hopefully!), but I’m not even going that far. Still a guess this early.
As safe as it is for you to predict anything, I suppose.
Oh, I don’t even need to go there to think of a shallower collection of tweets. I’ll spoil it for you so as not to ruin the surprise for anyone else:
Donald Trump. (Senior) Are you surprised?
What is the title of this thread? **Which 2020 Democrat CAN defeat Trump?
**
That is exactly what this thread is about- *early predictions and “analysis”. *
Fair enough, I was a bit out of line. I just think such definitive statements of certainty are ridiculous. If you tell me you think Harris would be a weak candidate because of X, Y, and Z then I might disagree but no big deal. But I think it’s a giant, ridiculous leap to go from that to “there’s no way she’ll win”, or that it would be ridiculous to consider her, or anything like that.
My response was hyperbolic, apologies.
Trump is at least saying what he thinks, and authenticity counts for something with voters. Harris’ tweets are just political pablum, yet somehow manage to be stupid at the same time, which is a very tough feat to pull off.
I take it you have avoided looking at The Donald’s?
When do lies become “authentic”? Some voters are impressed by run-of-the-mouth, unthinking, gut* reactions, but that is hardly an indication of quality.
*Lots there, of course.
There’s no way to avoid his tweets. They make headline news and many people I follow retweet. Conservatives because they think it’s awesome and liberals to show how nuts he is.
Do you really want a repeat of 2016, when Trump ran against a calculating, inauthentic, deceptive, flip flopping politician? Only let’s make her less experienced and dumber?
What you need is someone who can match him for authenticity but isn’t a moron. Joe Biden most immediately comes to mind.
Now granted, if Trump’s stupidity gets us into serious trouble with a war or economic downturn, then Democrats can probably run Jimmy Carter and get him that second term. But assuming a good economy and no new wars, Democrats are going to have to make their case and will need someone who can do it. I know Democrats want youth and all things being equal youth is better than doddering old men. But if all your young guys and gals are Rubios, Scott Walkers, Palins, Rand Pauls, and Dennis Kucinichs, you might as well go with Biden.
No, it isn’t. Boring and stupid are often found together. You’re just trying to sound cute.
And I’m not seeing very much stupid at https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris . Maybe below average stupidity for a politician, even, but I’m not very far in.
Can you point out some stupid KamalaHarris tweets?