Let’s put on our prognosticator hats and try to predict which major US leagues will have a completed season. I’ll limit it to the current seasons and next year’s seasons, so this is the list to consider.
2019-2020 NBA
2019-2020 NHL
2020 MLB
2020 NFL
2020-2021 NBA
2020-2021 NHL
2021 MLB
2021 NFL
Completing a modified season, such as the proposed MLB season or the planned resumption of the NBA season counts. Declaring a champion via an in season modification or cancellation of the schedule does not count. Which, if any, of these seasons do you all predict will have a conclusion?
I don’t think NBA, NHL or MLB finish the seasons they’re proposing.
And I’m at point where I think the upcoming winter will be worse than the past winter.
I agree, as well; I think it’s very likely that the NHL, NBA, and MLB “restart” plans will go off the rails over the next couple of weeks, due to significant numbers of players and team staff coming down with COVID. Similarly, the NFL teams are likely to run into the same problem once they start training camps in a few weeks.
I have a hard time picturing how any North American team sport is going to actually be able to play games (with or without fans in attendance) in 2020.
The NBA’s plan is the likelist to work, by far, because it’s the only one that really takes the issue seriously.
The MLB plan is near certain to fail. In fairness, when they came up with it, it looked like it might work, but things have changed in the last two weeks and the pandemic in the USA has spiralled out of control.
If the players and support staff that “go into the bubble” in Orlando next week are all virus-free, and are able to stay that way, yes, I agree, the NBA has a good chance to get play underway, and keep it underway. Unfortunately, I think that’s a pretty big “if.”
Here’s something on this topic I keep thinking, and which I’ve mentioned elsewhere in modified form: there’s a good chance that without a vaccine, the epidemic is no better in a year than it is now. (Even) If that happens, I don’t think anyone, including the people most at risk, are going to tolerate a second shortened or canceled season in a row. I think you’ll see players and staff signing indemnification protecting their league from lawsuits at that point, or maybe even more extreme measures, like my crazy relocation theory.
Then there’s the NBA. I think they are by far the hardest to predict because of the timing. But I still think there’s a good chance that the league, front offices, and players get so desperate that they’ll accept heightened risk in order to not have to scrap a second season in a row. Heck, by then, they and the public might be so used to COVID that player sickness (hell, maybe even death) won’t be seen as a show stopping PR possibility.
Big 10 FB will only play conference games this season. I assume with no fans or maybe small number of fans. Also could be moved to the spring. Ivy League says no sports until at least Jan 1.
Meanwhile, not only is MLB forging ahead with the shortened 2020 season, but today, they released the schedule for 2021—the earliest date they’ve ever done so. One theory is that they’re hoping to generate advanced sales for next year in lieu of not being able to make money off of attendance this year.
That just about shutdowns the Mid American Conference. They are major beneficiaries of Big Ten “get your ass kicked for cash” games. Without that money the athletic departments have to start cutting seasons for sports that lose money…which is code for everything except football and men’s basketball. Even a vaccine later in the year won’t change that balance sheet.
With the ACC already announcing the same I assume other Group of Five conferences will be facing the same math.
Keep in mind that every Division I school has to sponsor at least 14 sports (counting men’s and women’s separately), including at least seven women’s sports and at least six men’s sports. If enough schools have to modify their schedules, maybe the NCAA will grant waivers to this rule, but then there’s the problem of rebuilding the programs in the closed sports when they do reopen.
That’s just bizarre because I’m pretty sure the Cubs have no clue what the Wrigley concert schedule will look like in 2021. I am sure that if it’s safe, the Ricketts will want as many concerts as possible which will make local politics as fun as it always is.