I personally believe the EFF will become the ruling party in South Africa in 2024. I don’t think it will happen in 2019, because the ANC still has a strong enough majority to win the 2019 elections by a hair. Also, the reason I don’t think the DA will win is because it relies to heavily on the white and multi-ethnic vote, and alienates African voters by it’s heavily white leadership and membership. It comes off as a thinly-veiled attempt by the white minority to retake power in South Africa, whether it actually is or not. On top of that, the DA does not have the gravitas or the enthusiasm that the EFF has. One final thing, the EFF can use African people’s anger at the country’s state of economic inequality to win in a landslide in 2024.
Oh, sorry, I meant to put this thread in the elections forum. The admins can move it if they want.
Perhaps you and others could supply some background info for those of us with little exposure to South African politics so we can follow along.
No one party is going to succeed the ANC - the EFF is never going to get a majority like the tripartite alliance has had, JuJu has pissed off too many people. European-style multi-party coalition governments are much more likely, IMO.
If you’re interested enough to open such a clearly-marked specialist thread, maybe you can do some legwork yourself? Nobody writes Cliff’s Notes on US politics for us foreigners, why should we do it for you?
Because there are enough threads on U.S politics,and enough posts in each thread, that us foreigners can get a general grasp of the situation on just by reading them. It’s not the same with your country’s politics, or mine - the data set is just too small.
Because it would be polite.
Otherwise, you’ll get a 2-person conversation, which is not what GD is for.
From some preliminary googling, the ANC (African National Congress) is the largest party – a mostly left socialist-ish/workers’ party (criticized a lot for corruption and cronyism); the DA (Democratic Alliance) is a centrist, kind of pro-business and pro-trade party; and the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) is a left to far-left Marxist-leaning workers’ party. Those are the three largest parties in SA.
MrDibble, do I have this right?
Which is why Wikipedia and google exist.
There’s more than two South Africans on this board, plus others who are either familiar enough with our politics, or otherwise self-sufficient enough to do their own research.
I do my own research on US, European and even Israeli politics if I want to be involved in those conversations. And it’s not like the OP is in South Africa. [
Or intended this to be in GD, for that matter.
TElling us to do the work for you is hardly polite. Especially since you didn’t even say please.
More-or-less, although the EFF isn’t really much further left than the ANC is, despite loudly proclaiming to be so.
It’s hard to keep up because in any given country politics change with the wind (how many people can name Canada’s sexy new prime minister? How about our last PM?). However, as foreigners, it’s easy enough to remember this one all important fact: the ANC was the party of Nelson Mandela.
The man who lead the country to political freedom, free elections, ethnic power sharing, and -despite being imprisoned for most of his life- reconciliation. Imagine if Lincoln won the war, successfully lead reconstruction, and survived long enough to bask in his retirement. They must be rapidly aging by now, but (for the above reasons) there’s a generation of South Africans who will vote ANC until they die; the ANC has secured their vote no matter how ineptly party does in day-to-day affairs. Of course this does not hold true for the youth.
I’m not very educated in the current political affairs of the country, but in looking at India’s history they finally voted out the INC 30 years after their independence from the British (this lasted for 3 years before they returned to INC until 1996).
It’s been 22 so far.
Highly unlikely.
The ANC will win the 2019 national elections with a lower but still quite comfortable majority. Sad but (likely) true.
It’s far more complex then that. Suffice to say, it has made few inroads into the rural black vote, which is key to winning the national elections.
I’ll give you enthusiasm - Malema can fire up a crowd like no other SA politician. But gravitas? The party led by Malema, renowned for crude schoolboy insults thrown at all and sundry? The party, with policies and manifesto as disconnected from reality as Trump’s? Please.
They couldn’t in 2014. Why would they in 2024?
I bet it would have to be a united coalition of opposition to the ANC; it would be shaky, having Zille and Malema together, but at 249 seats to a combined 114 of DA and EEF, the power of the ANC is rather gripping.
There’s only so long a single party can stay in power; the DA would need to get more black support. If of course, the ANC gets more scandals like Zuma’s rape, it could happen quickly.
interesting read on the subject: First Black Leader of South Africa’s Opposition Seeks to Unseat the A.N.C. - The New York Times
Your information is a bit dated; the leader of the DA is Mmusi Maimane, a black African. Zille remains as premier of the Western Cape, the only province out of 9 controlled by a party other than the ANC.
Referring to Zuma’s 2006 rape trial (a 10 year old matter where, IIRC, the court determined that the act was consensual and complainant highly unreliable,) seems a bit odd, as Zuma has been implicated in numerous scandals since then. Its also worth noting that the court found the alleged rape to have been an act of consensual sex and the complainant to be an unreliable witness.
The most notable include the ongoing scandals of using public money to build his ZAR249 000 000 (not sure of exchange rate at moment but its an 8 figure amount in US dollars) compound in Nkandla and his continuing relationship with the Gupta family amidst allegations of improper influence and state capture.
It appears that the South African opposition DA has won more voters in the capital (Tshwane) then the ANC in the most recent municipal elections.
This should serve as a warning for the ANC to ‘ship up’ or be prepared to lose support. As I understand it, the general elections are in 2019 so they could be in for more groundbreaking losses if they don’t change the public’s perception of their governance.