Nah, both A-Rod and Pujols have legitimate chances at breaking that record. As noted A-Rod simply needs 30 HRs per year for 6 years, considering he averages 44 a year now that’s a pretty easy expectation. This year was his first year where he didn’t hit more than 30 in a decade and he missed 38 games. If he maintains an 40 HR/year average he’d be there before his 38th birthday. If Pujols continues his pace he’ll be at the mark by 38 years old too, and either guy could realistically hang on well into their 40s as a DH if they slow down much.
Every one of his records will fall, probably to Manning, with the likely exception of the consecutive games streak. That’s the most unbreakable one and considering how liberal teams are with sitting guys out these days compared to 20 years ago it might never get broken if Peyton doesn’t do it.
I’m not the one crunching the numbers, but experts seem to believe that Rodriguez is unlikely to break the home run record due to the expected effects of age. 23 homers per year for eight years is still a lot of production. The record for most home runs hit after the age of 40 is held by Bonds, with 79. Pujols is amazing but he’s not even halfway there, and a lot can happen in the time he would need. I hope one of them gets it but I am becoming less optimistic.
By the same token, Peyton Manning is expected to break most of Favre’s passing records, and I think he’s going to do it. The fact that he continues to put up big numbers while throwing to Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, among others, is incredible.
I think Roger Federer’s record of 15 Grand Slam titles, and counting, is safe. Men’s tennis is moving into an era where the tops players can win on any surface, but I don’t think one player is going to dominate the way he did. His “lesser” records, like 237 straight weeks at number one, 21 total major finals and 22 straight major semifinals, are likely to be harder to break. And he may still set the record for most weeks at number one in the world.
It is. 6 or 7 years ago, if you told me that, assuming Brett Favre had MVP-caliber seasons at ages 38 and 40, he’d have numbers of X, Y, and Z, I would have told you it was a pretty big assumption, too.
All the exercise does is prove that Manning (who has been consistently great) does have a reasonable chance to break Favre’s records. Is it likely? Hell if I know. Will he keep producing at this level until he’s 38? Unknown.
OTOH, if he plays until he’s 40 or 41, even if he does see a decline in productivity over the next five years, he could still break the records, just by virtue of longevity.
Why? It’s not like there’s a long history of QBs dropping off at age 32 like with RBs. Warner and Favre currently, and Manning takes fewer hits than either guy and relies and athleticism than any QB i can recall. Guys like John Elway, Dan Marino, Phil Simms, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon and Rich Gannon played at a high level into their late 30s. Even Jeff Garcia doesn’t seem to be too affected by age. There’s so much evidence of elite QBs remaining elite well past 35 that it’s more likely than not, and certainly not unlikely.
The real question is, will he play his last one or two seasons with the Colts? Or will he have an inglorious year with, say, the Buccs, then wind up with the hated Patriots?
It would be pretty hilarious! But, realistically Peyton and Indianapolis seem like a perfect marriage. I can imagine him taking friendly contracts at the end of his run and retiring gracefully.
ARod hit 35 2 years ago and 30 last year. His days of 40 HR seasons ended when everyone went to DC. Pujols has 366 career HRs. Let’s revisit this in 5 years, when he’ll still be 200+ HR behind. I would love to see ARod play into his 40s, but that won’t happen. Pujols has a better shot, but he’s not going to be invulnerable forever and he’ll start missing games in a couple years.
Favre needs to retire first, until then there’s really no debate. Until then, Peyton isn’t going to do any significant catching up. With the way he is playing this year, I can’t see him retiring. He’s having too much fun, and Minnesota will put up with his shenanigans.
With the current college schedule, no coach will catch Paterno. However, if I wake up 30 years from now and colleges are playing 16 game schedules, then there is a chance.
Yep, from januari first onwards swimsuits need to be made from a ‘natural fiber’ or something like that. Anyhow, the rubber suits that have helped in setting all current records (according to some up to half a second per 50m) will not be allowed any more. I think the current record might stand for quite some time…
According to mark Foster of the UK, swimming with the rubber suits felt like swimming down hill.
