Which sports records were set this decade and will probably never be broken?

The Game Room
41

Bonds had 762 career home runs. Rodriguez currently has 583, a difference of 179 home runs. Rodrigues will start the 2010 season at age 34 (he’ll turn 35 half-way through).

He doesn’t have to hit 40 home runs. He doesn’t even have to come close. I’ll forget about Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire (who had his best season when he was older than A-Rod is now); their numbers are outliers for a lot of reasons. But here are some hitters, and their average home runs for ages 34-38:

Edgar Martinez: 28
Gary Sheffield: 28
Jim Thome: 28
Ken Griffey, Jr: 26
Jason Giambi: 26
Frank Thomas: 28
Fred McGriff: 28
Chipper Jones: 24 (only 4 seasons; age 38 season pending)
Jim Edmonds: 24
Manny Ramirez: 28 (only 4 seasons; age 38 season pending)

Here I’ve listed only fairly modern players, to provide an adequate comparison. Note that every single one of these players is/was not just an inferior hitter compared to Alex Rodriguez, but a markedly inferior hitter. Most of these guys are not first-ballot Hall-of-Famers; many of them are not Hall-of-Famers at all. And yet only the two with the least career power (Jones and Edmonds) averaged less than 24 home runs during the 5-year period we’re discussing, and Griffey and Giambi both had injury issues way out of proportion to what we’d expect from Rodriguez. Given this, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect that A-Rod can average 28 home runs a year for the next five years.

And again, that’s assuming that his production only matches Sheffield’s over the same period in their respective careers, which is a bad assumption since Rodriguez has outperformed Sheffield over every other period in their careers (from age 25-30, for example, Sheffield hit 128 home runs; Rodriguez hit 240). So there’s really an excellent chance that Rodriguez will actually average more like 30 a year for the next five, but let’s be conservative and say that he only matches Sheffield - not a guarantee, of course, but not a terribly dangerous bet, either.

That’ll give him 723 home runs going into his age 38 season (Bonds had 613).

He’ll be 40 short of owning the record. As he begins his age 38 season.

Let’s look at that list again - here are the total home runs each player had beginning with his age 38 season and continuing through the end of his career (asterisks indicate currently active players who will or may play in 2010):

Martinez: 74
Sheffield: 54*
Thome: 23*
Griffey, Jr: 37*
Giambi: 13*
Thomas: 73
McGriff: 45
Jones: N/A (age 38 season upcoming)*
Edmonds: 20*
Ramirez: N/A (age 38 season upcoming)*

Of the 10 listed players (and again I hasten to mention that all are poorer hitters than Rodriguez, who is not incidentally also considered one of the best conditioned atheletes in the game), four hit at least 40 home runs beginning with their age 38 season. Of the remaining six, Griffey will return in 2010 and will almost certainly hit at least four home runs. Chipper Jones and Manny Ramirez - well, it’s anyone’s guess. I think Manny gets at least 40 more (probably well over 40) and Chipper does not. Giambi probably won’t make it, Edmonds has retired and definitely won’t, and Thome is currently without a team. Let’s say he doesn’t get there.

So out of ten comparables, six hit at least 40 home runs beginning at age 38, which again, is all Alex Rodriguez has to do.

Now, is it certain that all these things will happen? Of course not. But it’s silly to argue that it is anything resembling certain that they won’t, given how the careers of so many inferior hitters have played out. I’d say that Rodriguez has at least a 50% chance of taking the record, and - given his near pathological obsession with achievement and accomplishment - I’d bet my 401(k) that he will play as long as it takes to make it happen.

42

Passing records in football will be challenged as the rules are continually changing to encourage passing and the safety of QBs.
If Arod has a big year or 2 ,it will not be difficult to erode the Bonds record. But ,one injury will end it.

43

Of this decade’s records, I have to cast my vote for Ichiro’s 262 hit single-season record–unless he breaks it himself.

When you remove Ichiro’s entries from the all-time single-season hits leaders, only one player from the last 20 years even comes within 25 hits of 262, which is Darin Erstad’s 240 in 200. The next closest player of the last 20 years is 35 hits behind, Lance Johnson in 1996. And it bears noting that the record already had stood for 84 years until Ichiro broke it.

Today, it takes a unique combination of bat control, speed, top of the lineup slotting, and never taking walks, which apparently has not been in vogue recently. But a lot of guys were getting close in the 1920s and 30s, I wonder why that is. Diluted talent pool, maybe? Lower pitcher’s mound?

44

You have completely neglected to take into account the juice factor. You put up a lot of words in response to my 6 sentences and failed to address the major point. Well played.

45

Steroids may be gone, they may not. Masking techniques are constantly morphing. There is HGH and others you have never heard of yet. There are labs all over the world devising newer and better drugs to enhance sports performances.

46

Uh… that’s your major point? Help me out here; I didn’t know that certain things were common knowledge. Fight my ignorance:

  1. During which of Alex Rodriguez’s 16 major league seasons was his performance affected by “the juice factor?”

  2. During which of Alex Rodriguez’s 16 major league seasons was his performance not affected by this factor?

  3. Is Alex Rodriguez currently using any PEDs?

  4. Will he be using PEDs in the next eight years?

  5. Did Gary Sheffield use PEDs at any point in his career (oops)? How about Giambi (whoops)? Manny Ramirez (whoops!)?

My point, which you’ve evidently decided to give a pass, is that many of Rodriguez’s contemporaries, many of whom used PEDs, and who are generally much poorer players than he has been, have all managed to produce at a rate that, if Rodriguez matches it, would result in his breaking the home run record by the end of his current contract.

So what is your argument? Do you argue that Rodriguez, uniquely among players who juiced at one point in their careers (and we have no idea when he was juicing, of course, other than in Texas for a 2-3-year period), is going to suffer a loss of performance in his mid-late 30’s that his contemporaries, including some almost-certain juicers and a couple of guys about whom I guess we’ll never know, did NOT suffer?

Is your argument going to be that it is literally impossible, sans PED, to hit 30+ home runs in the modern major leagues?

I don’t get the point you’re trying to make.

47

Martin Brodeur has a couple of records that will be pretty hard to beat:

These are the numbers through to the end of last season (including 2009 playoffs)

Regular Season wins: 557 with more than 100 over the next closest “active” goalie (Curtis Joseph, not playing this season). He’s sitting on 577 as of today.

Career Shutouts: tied with Terry Sawchuck at 103, and every reason to believe he’ll get several more before he retires. The next closest active is again Joseph at 51, with Chris Osgood at 49. Unlikely to be beaten in a very long time.

Tied for first with 23 playoff shutouts (with Patrick Roy). Joseph and Osgood are at 16 and 15 each, though this one might be beatable.

48

Jerry Rice’s record for career receiving yards, which was technically set this decade.

His other records might get broken, but not this one. He’s more than 50% ahead of 2nd place. The gap between him and 2nd place is the same as the gap between 2nd and 90th place all time.

49

Slightly out of scope, since it happened 11 years ago…

Gary Anderson’s perfect placekicking for the 1998 Vikings. 59-59 XPs, 35-35 FGs. He did miss a field goal in the NFC Championship Game (which ultimately cost the Vikings the game), but postseason starts aren’t generally included in a player’s stats. So, the best that anyone can do is tie Anderson’s percentages.

50

I look at that list, and the one player I see on the list who could catch Rice (not too far down the list, not too old) is…Randy Moss. If he kept playing, productively, into his late 30s, he could, in theory, make a run at this record…but he didn’t even last 3 seasons in New England before his old, bad attitude surfaced. I have a very hard time believing he’d keep it together for another 7-8 years.

51

Will any coach/manager in any sport match Phil Jackson’s ten championships? Maybe if Scotty Bowman decides to return to the bench. But who else is close?

52

Sir Alex Ferguson is close. In fact, his championship count goes to 11.

53

Brodeur just broke the shutout record last night, and he holds that one alone. I think that record will be very tough to break.

And here’s to hoping that he breaks any and all of Roy’s records that he has a shot at. Roy was one of the most annoying hockey players I can think of (yes, I would have loved to have had him playing goal for my team, but since that didn’t happen, I will root for any records he holds to fall.) :stuck_out_tongue:

54

Tiger Woods. Pick a record. Might set one for divorces too. If that happens nobody will try to break it.

55

Tom Brady’s 50 Touchdown passes in a season will probably be bested by someone some day, but I bet it will stand for a while.

56

Vanderjagt was also perfect in 2003. 46-46 XP, 37-37 FG in the season, 12-12 XP, 3-3 FG in the playoffs.

57

In the first 60 years of NASCAR, only one person managed to win 3 championships in a row. Jimmie Johnson just won his 4th. If anyone ever has a chance of beating that record, it’s probably Johnson himself as he goes for 5 next year.

58

Tyler Hansbrough of the University of North Carolina Tar Heels was named a First team All-American four times this decade. That is a record that will never be broken since college players can only play 4 years of competition. Tied, perhaps, but never broken under the current system.

59

Not tto be picky, but I just don’t think this is true. Frank Thomas is most certainly not “markedly inferior” to Rodriguez as a hitter. He was a BETTER hitter. A-Rod is a greater player, because he can field while Thomas could not, but that’s got nothing to do with hitting. Manny Ramirez has been just as good as hitter and maybe a bit better. Rodriguez is better than, but not really a lot better than, Giambi or Chipper Jones. Jim Thome’s a close call, too. Edgar Martinez was just as good a hitter as A-Rod.

Rodriguez is an early challenge to the home run record because he started hitting at a high level very young and so has the potential to have a very, very long career. A-Rod hit 36 homers in his age 20 season; almost all of the guys you named didn’t play a single major league game that young (only Griffey and Sheffield did.) But he’s not actually quite as effective a hitter as Thomas or Manny, and a few guys are just as good.

Pujols is a better hitter than Rodriguez, quite substantially better. Of course, Pujols is the greatest hitter in the history of baseball who’s still alive and not named Bonds, though it’s unfair to compare a guy who hasn’t had a decline phase to guys who’ve had most of their careers. But even though Pujols started young (age 21) A-Rod still got an early start on him (41 homers before his age 21 season) and home runs are a bigger part of his game, so Pujols is behind A-Rod’s home run pace.

I’d guess Rodriguez has a chance to hit a truly immense number of home runs. Of course, he could tear a muscle next April and screw up his career, but if he doesn’t get hurt he could hit 800-900 home runs. He got a very early start, consistently hits many home runs every year, and seems to be in good shape. He has all the indications of a player who might be able to play a long time - good speed, good defensive abilities, a realtively healthy history, doesn’t play second base or catcher, a reputation for conditioning, good batting averages, had his best season at age 31, and he’s locked into a contract that will motivate his club to play him even if parts of his game break down. I think he will break Bonds’s record.

60

Rick -

That’s a fair point. I really basically meant that all the players i listed were markedly inferior hitters in terms of their home run power taken in isolation, which seems to be the relevant thing here.