I’ve lost count, but it seems that we are approaching the point at which half of these United States have now allowed same-sex marriage. Furthermore, it seems that the momentum is gathering.
ISTM that same-sex marriage will be legal in all 50 states sometime in the future. I have a couple questions that I was curious to hear others opinions of:
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Assuming that in fact every state does eventually allow it, which state will be the last?
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Alternatively, do you see a scenario in which once a majority of states approve it (say 40 or so) the issue gets revisited at the federal level and the remaining states are forced to comply all at once?
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How long before same-sex marriage is legal in all states?
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Or do you disagree entirely? Is there one or more states that will just never approve same-sex marriage, even if they are the lone holdout?
I look forward to your opinions…
I think that either the Supreme Court or Congress will take actions before all 50 states make it legal. So there will be no “last” state.
A distinct possibility, which is why I included it in the OP.
In that case, what state(s) will be among those who are forced to comply by federal decree?
Either, (2), or Mississippi.
IIRC Nate Silver predicted it would be Mississippi before 2025.
Considering that there’s several states that still refuse to take their (now unenforceable) sodomy laws off the books, I think there’ll a few holdouts that won’t change unless they’re forced to on the Federal level.
Even if that doesn’t happen (we’ll see where the current momentum in the federal courts go), I think we may get to a point where if enough states do enact SSM, practical considerations will more or less force the holdouts to recognize the out of state marriages, even if they still refuse to actually perform them on principle.