Not that I was one of those who took you up on your bet, but Jamie Moyer has finished the first half of the season and as of tonight has a 12-5 record and a 3.02 ERA.
If you’ll recall, you had predicted a “post All-Star Break” ERA of 5.20. I guess, technically, it could still happen, if he allows a few dozen runs in one inning of the All-Star Game.
And you know, Freddy Garcia, hasn’t pitched all that shabby in his last several starts.
JonScribe,
who never got the chance to be a smug asshole when he was a Mariners fan in the '70s and '80s
All-star weekend statistics do not count for anything, else you’d see a lot more people entering the homerun derby contest hoping to add 10 or so cheap homers to their tally. 10-20 a year even over 5 years (forgetting 10) adds up quite a bit.
THE ALL STAR BREAK IS NOT THE HALF-WAY POINT OF THE SEASON
Every major league team except one has now played at least 90 games, which is considerably more than the 81 ganes that woould constitute the half-way mark.
Now, some people might not see this as such a big deal, but the fact that the ASB is seen as the de facto half-way point by so many people leads to stupid predictions about the rest of the season. I can’t remember how many times i’ve heard something like “Player X has 30 home runs at the ASB, and is on track to hit 60 for the year.”
No, he’s not. If he has 30 homers in early July, he is on pace to hit about 51-53 for the year (not counting the post-season).
Similarly, if a pitcher has 10 wins at the break, this does not put him on pace for a 20-win season. More like 17-18.
First of all, iampunha, I’m well aware that stats from the All-Star Game don’t count. The only reason I mentioned it was a tongue-in-cheek reference to how Moyer could possibly have an ERA around 5.20 “post-ASB,” as White Lightening had predicted.
And, mhendo, yeah I know we passed the half-way point several games ago, but I was speaking in generalities. Where in my post do I predict a 24-10 record at the end of the season for Moyer? Or is precise language required when one is just trying to rub another Doper’s nose in an errant prediction?
By post-All Star break I’m pretty sure he meant from the end of the break to the end of the season.
I don’t think Lightning is going to win this wager. Fortunately, we were all too lazy to actually bet anything, so nothing bad (or good, depending on your POV) will happen.
Sorry if it seemed like a personal attack. I really wasn’t aiming at you at all.
Actually, i was just piggybacking on your thread in order to rant about something that i had noticed on so many occasions before. It really doesn’t worry me that the term “half-way point” is used for the ASB, except when idiot commentators on TV use it as a literal half-way point to predict end-of-season numbers. You’d think people who make a living talking about the game would know a little better.
And it certainly does seem that White Lightning needs to start that thread, post-haste. I think i saw on the TV yesterday that Moyer not only has an ERA of 3.02, but that this figure is (IIRC) the fourth-best in the American League.
BTW, Jon, those Mariners had a good series against the Orioles this week, huh?
And I’ll grant you it’s pretty assinine to try and project records out at the AS break, whether it’s truly half way or not. Rarely do those projections reflect anything close to reality. Chalk it up to having to fill dead air between pitches.
No Orioles fan has any interest in October, because we are absolutely no chance of getting there. The Birds just got swept 3-0 by Oakland, including throwing away the final game with a moronic play in the bottom of the ninth.
I want a time machine so i can go back and watch the Orioles of the late '60s, early 70s.
