this is my reasoning as well. warnock in the previous run off took the lead and kept it all night against loeffler.
the race on tuesday was more like the one ossoff had in the previous run off where there was see-sawing all night.
Many of the voters in the November 8th election were voting to ensure Brian Kemp remained governor; voting against Stacey Abrams; a Black Woman. There were almost 20,000 voters who voted for the governor but didn’t even bother voting for the senator. I think not having a white person to vote for is going to limit a lot of people’s interest in the runoff.
Excellent point, IMHO!
Agree. With all the variables and calculus and guesses we are all doing, it probably just comes down to something as simple as this.
I think Warnock is probably favored. As Procrustus said the Libertarian vote is irrelevant. The people who made those votes did so specifically because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for either candidate, they aren’t going to break their daily routine to specifically to vote for them now. Coming off the mid term the Democrats are energized while the Republicans are discouraged.
I agree with this statement but it pushes me into the opposite direction. I think that given the state of the supreme court, the Democrats are more motivated to keep if from shifting further to the right than the Republicans are of it shifting back towards left.
With regards to the GOP being motivated to spend more money on Walker I think that depends on their sense of whether he stands a chance to win, even if other races tip the senate to the Dems before the runoff. A win still wouldn’t just mean being a larger minority now, it would also mean having an additional GOP senator seated in 2024 and 2026, so having a bigger chance to retake/hold on to the senate in the two next elections.
Another thing to consider is that now the spotlight will be on this race. Walker doesn’t have Kemp and all the other Republicans from Georgia on the ballot that didn’t have scandals to take voters attention away from him. My guess is he isn’t going to do well having the spotlight on him.
Does he really care about Ivanka? She’s getting too old for him, isn’t she?
Ouch.
Control of the Senate (and the whole US government) was on the line in 2020, and people went out for the Democrat. And And it’s not like the opponent is better this time. So I think there’s still a good chance that, even when it’s for control of the Senate, it could go to Warnock.
You have to think all the Democrats have to do is run ads of Walker lying. There’s more than enough footage.
It could get interesting if DeSantis also sees the runoff as a platform for amplifying his national presence. I have an amusing mental image of Trump and DeSantis trying to elbow each other off the stage, which I expect will occur (though probably on a more metaphorical level) if they both show up to stump for Walker.
I’m guessing a lot of them will sit home. Presumably they aren’t delusional enough to think that the Libertarian candidate had a real chance to win, so voting that way would be silly if they had a strong preference between the two candidates who did.
I agree. They knew it would be razor close and if they really preferred one of them, they would have done it on Tuesday. They probably showed up to vote on other things and the Senator slot was “fuck it”.
Moderating:
Not ok. Knock off the incest jokes.
Not a warning.
Mod note reversed based on discussion in ATMB.
It’s beginning to look good for D wins in both AZ and NV, making this race of not as massive impact if so.
Of course who is there may still end up as the critical seat in two years.
Still the GOP probably won’t work too hard for Walker without current control on the line. While the D side I think really wants Warnock around.
51 neuters Manchin.
Even if a Democratic majority is assured, Republicans will certainly work hard for Walker in the run-off. In a 50-50 Senate, the majority is always just a heart attack away. Plus, they need some redemptive storyline after this dumpster fire of an election to sell to their voters and donors.
It also exposes the Senate Democrats who have their own objections to Administration policies but have been happy to let Manchin absorb the blows as the face of internal Democratic opposition.
… but sadly, not Manchin and Sinema together. And with no tie to break, it may hamstring some of Biden’s agenda if those 2 continue as they did during Biden’s first 2 years.
Harris doesn’t get to break a tie unless it’s to prevail against only the opposing party, does she?
Exactly.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think this is correct. If there’s a bill that 25 Dems and 25 Pubbies vote for*, she breaks the tie. Or 10 Dems and 40 Pubbies. Or 40 Dems and 10 Pubbies. And, she could break the tie in favor of the Pubbies, if she wanted to.
(I’m trying to imagine what such a bill might be. Codifying “soda” vs. “pop”? Beatles vs. Stones? Ya-yas vs. Leeds?)
I simply don’t know how it works. Your explanation makes sense.
I guess we should take as many senators as we can first, and then we’ll find out. 