With neither candidate reaching the required 50% of the vote due to a Libertarian candidate syphoning off 2%, there will be a runoff election on December 3rd. Who currently has the better position?
Walker
Warnock
0voters
At this point, I have to give the edge to Warnock. I think that Kemp being on the ballot helped Walker more than Abrams did Warnock. I’m not sure why I feel that way other than gut instinct.
I also can’t see Walker getting a majority of the vote of those that supported Oliver, the Libertarian.
I like the Democrat’s chances of holding this seat.
It’s also possible that it’s too early to tell since the rest of the seats haven’t been decided yet. People might vote differently if it’s to give or prevent one side from having a clear majority.
I voted Warnock, but more out of wishful thinking than actual evidence. I still can’t believe a mush-mouthed massively hypocritical moron like Walker had such a strong showing against a clearly superior choice for the office. Hopefully, you’re right, that a big part of it was Repubs showing up for Kemp, then holding their noses and voting the party line.
This is the big question. Hopefully the Dems get to 50 beforehand and it’s irrelevant.
It’s not going to be about the individual candidates (if it ever was); it will be about Senate control overall. If this becomes the deciding race, both sides will be motivated to turn out and it will depend entirely on which side is more motivated.
When control of the senate was on the line two years ago, voters chose Warnock over a candidate who was much more competent than Walker. I believe they will turn out and do the same again.
If you can hold your nose and vote for Walker, you did so on Tuesday. The 2% that voted Libertarian don’t care about control of the Senate (which is the only “rational” reason to vote for Walker). They might not even vote in a run off, but Warnock’s voters will show up and are motivated.
ETA: I’m wrong about almost all political predictions I make. So who knows?
Every pundit I’ve seen comment on this says a runoff favors Warnock. That said, the fact half of Georgia voted for Herschel Walker in the first place is positively disorienting.
Historically run-offs favored the GOP (which is why there are run-offs), but that trend has broken recently. I would guess the folks who voted Libertarian lean right, but how many will vote in the run-off? As is often the case, turn-out will be key.
I voted for Warnock. Exit polling showed that 70% of the white voters cast ballots for Walker. I’m figuring an election between two black guys will lower the white turnout. Whites were 62% of the voters in the last election, so a decrease of just a couple of percent will make a difference.
I read an article today that opined that this will be the major factor. If the undecided seats break such that the Dems will have a majority no matter what happens, then the Republicans will have little motivation to spend a lot of money trying to get Walker elected. The notion is, why spend a lot on a worthless candidate, when the Senate won’t flip even if he wins? Why buy 6 more years of Walker being on the front page saying something stupid every day?
It would be worth it if this race determines who runs the Senate, but if not, it’s not worth it.
Some Trump advisors are reportedly urging him to hold off announcing his Presidential bid in '24 until after the runoff, to avoid energizing Warnock voters.
So one wild card is whether Trump’s ego will permit him to delay the announcement.
I voted for Warnock, although to be clear, not as a heavy favorite, but still the more likely option.
The odds of Walker opening himself up to yet another scandal over the next few weeks is certainly not a zero-probability issue, and I agree that Trump likely declaring his next run and/or stumping for Walker to get his rally fix will do more to invigorate those who hate Trump to show up and vote, than a (R) group that’s been somewhat disgruntled by the failure of the ‘red wave’ to arrive.
Still, I’d be going 60/40 at best, and with what’s riding on it, not particularly happy about those numbers.
I voted for Walker. The runoff will be all about turnout. If it comes down to control of the Senate, as seems likely now, I think that Republicans have a more motivating message to their voters that a win is necessary to stop the appointment of more socialist Biden judges who will rule that schoolkids have to shit in litterboxes.
Many Georgia Republicans already attribute the failure in the last runoffs on Donald making that all about himself and his post-election meltdown. They are dreading it happening again.
My WAG is that turnout will much less if the majority is already decided but that Warnock wins narrowly in either case, maybe wider margin if control is on the line, given fewer Democratic voters are the sort that come out no matter what.
How much different would spending be in the next few weeks with or without Senate control on the line? I’m thinking some local media corporate folk are salivating over the “with” option.
And I think ridiculous messaging like that will remind Democrats how important it is to push back against the literal insanity of a lot of Republicans.
Agree on your first point, and I voted here for Warnock. But, on the second point regarding Kemp, I heard someone suggest Republicans selected Kemp but not Walker - and some may have even split the ticket by voting Kemp and Warnock. Should that be the case, then I suspect the same Republicans would vote for Warnock again. Maybe.
That said, those same people may be guilted into voting for Walker in the run-off if the balance of power is on the line, as it appears. I dunno.