Who is papable right now?

As long as they don’t take all that prime real estate with them.

Google AI tells me: “In 2023, dioceses and individuals in the United States contributed 13.6 million euros (approximately $14.6 million) to the Vatican’s Peter’s Pence fund, making them the largest overall donors. This represents about 28.1% of the total donations received by the Vatican that year.”

So maybe the Roman Catholic Church cares just a tiny bit about America.

One name I see popping up is Angelo Scola.

What I don’t understand about his being a likely candidate is that he’s 83. Presumably he won’t even be at the conclave, but his name is on all the lists I’ve seen so far of likely candidates. He’s not at the top of the list, but he is solidly in the middle. Do any of you all have any guesses as to why he’s still being mentioned?

It has been 46.5 years since we have had an Italian Pope. Is there any movement from the Cardinals to go back to “The Pope must be Italiano.”?
Also it is the Jubilee in Rome. Once that white smoke is seen, you won’t be able to get within 10 miles of the City to hear the Habemus Papam.

He seems like a Francis light. Under him the Church would take a small step back and not push the boundaries. In cases like this, I wonder is there is a Cardinal that has almost enough people behind him to become Pope but still needs a couple of years. They throw support to someone like Scola who will likely be dead in a couple of years and spend that time politicking.

As someone who’s followed the financial problems of traditional mainstream religions, I can say that a lot of that “prime” real estate is close to unsellable. A lot of it is located in poor residential neighborhoods (urban and rural) where the neighbors will fight redevelopment, old buildings full of asbestos and in bad repair that are too expensive either to save or tear down.

For every St. Patrick’s Cathedral on 5th Avenue, there are literally hundreds of properties that no one wants.

Why assume the favorite is the most likely? 2 out of the last 3 popes were surprises.

Here’s another list:

Deleted - mistake

The assumption seems to be that since Pope Francis appointed most of the cardinals that will be at the conclave, it’s likely they share his policies and political views.

For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t mind seeing Cardinal Tagle as the next pope, and he seems to be the odds on favorite right now.

That makes sense if you look at Benedict, where there was only one voting Cardinal besides him who wasn’t appointed by JPII. But how do you explain Francis, when the majority of Cardinals had been appointed by Benedict?

Google AI says 80% of the current College of Cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis.

Better that hallucinating AI: the complete list of all cardinals still alive, sorted by eligible and ineligible to participate in a papal conclave:

Ineligible to participate in a papal conclave means the cardinal in question is over 80 years old. That is about half of them, and of course most of the ones appointed by JP2 and many of Benedict’s flock.

Question: Can the Pope be elected from churches in communion with the RCC, like the Coptic, Ethiopian, Marionite, Greek Byzantine, &c.?

If the RCC wants to go backwards and become MRGA, then there would be no better choice than Robert Sarah.

Maybe the George HW Bush appointing David Souter to the SCOTUS effect? In other words maybe Benedict’s appointments didn’t all share his views.

MRGA? I Googled it and that wasn’t any help. Even in the context of the Roman Catholic Church, traditional Google seems to think that I’m merely misspelling megachurch, and the AI thinks that I’m trying to get information on St. Maria Goretti Catholic Church in Dallas / Arlington.

Make Rome Great Again

Got it. Although if that’s what they want, wouldn’t Peter Erdo (sorry, I don’t know how to make the diacritics to spell his name properly) of Hungary be the way to go? Just as conservative, and they wouldn’t have to worry about offending the racist wing of the Church who don’t want a Black pope.

Because Sarah has had a variety of offices in the Holy See so I assume he’s more politically connected among the cardinal-electors. And while Sarah and Erdő are conservatives, Sarah’s positions are very public meaning you know who you are voting for rather than a relative unknown.

So you’re saying there’s not a lot of cardinals with low Erdő numbers?