Who is Trump's base?

Politics & Elections
1

What are the demographics who love Trump most, as opposed to those holding their noses? As I see it, this involves a study of the demographics of those who say they have a favorable opinion of Trump. If more than 50% of a demographic has a favorable view of you, they are members of your base; at any rate that’s how I operationalize the question. Feel free to poke holes!

Most recent polling suggests that 32.8% have a favorable view of Trump, while 42.2% (including myself) have a favorable view of Clinton.

The strongest part of the Trump base is Republicans and Republican leaners: 67% of them have a favorable view of Trump, compared with 74% of Democrats for Clinton.

Gallup’s polls from late May provide a different view. Trump had similar favorability at the time (33%), while Clinton’s was a little weaker (40%). But with an 11,600 sample size, some of the demographics could be explored. None of the groups gave over 50% support to Trump, though some came close and others could be inferred. Specifically, white males, white non-college grads, veterans and males 50+ were all in the 47-49% range. From that I impute that white dudes without a college degree are Trump’s main base. Still, I’m not seeing a blowout in any of those groups or inputations. That was a mild surprise for me.

Hillary Clinton enjoys larger margins. Here are the groups where support for her is 47% or more:



Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by Demographic Group
% with favorable opinion

			     Hillary    Donald   Clinton minus 
			     Clinton    Trump	   Trump
			(pct. pts.)
Non-Hispanic black 		69% 	11% 	58
Nonwhite female 		65% 	9% 	56
Nonwhite non-college grad 	61% 	13% 	48
Nonwhite college grad 		62% 	17% 	45
Hispanic 			58% 	14% 	44
Domestic partnership/Living with partner 
(not legally married) 		57% 	19% 	38
Nonwhite male 			57% 	19% 	38
Muslim 				53% 	17% 	36
Identify as LGBT 		54% 	18% 	36
Asian 				51% 	18% 	33
Jewish 				56% 	26% 	30
Unmarried woman 		48% 	20% 	28
Separated 			50% 	23% 	27
Postgraduate 			50% 	24% 	26
Less than $24,000/year 		50% 	25% 	25
Female, 50+ 			47% 	32% 	15

Here’s the analagous set for Trump:



Male, 50+ 			36% 	49% 	-13
Veteran household 		29% 	49% 	-20
White non-college grad	 	26% 	47% 	-21
White male 			25% 	49% 	-24

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/191918/race-gender-biggest-differentiators-views-clinton-trump.aspx
I think it’s fair to say that Trump rallies have greater enthusiasm than Hillary Clinton rallies. However, I find it difficult to see that effect in the favorability data.

TL/DR: White less educated men or maybe white men over 50 make up Trump’s base. Has to be all 3, has to involve white dudes. But support for Trump in such groups is not overwhelming.

2

Trump’s message is that ‘your country is being taken away from you,’ which naturally resonates with older, whiter voters. The data and the rallies seem to bear that out.

3

Even though those numbers favor Hillary, I still feel uneasy that Trump’s numbers aren’t lower.

4

*Trump is all about that base
About that base
No Mexicans
All about that base
About that base

Trump is all about that base
About that base
No Muslims
All about that base
About that base*

5

Back in March the Atlantic reported on Trump’s supporters, but in the context of the Republican primary, a necessarily nonrepresentative sample of the broader electorate. Anyway, these Republicans are less likely to have attended college and much more likely to agree that, “People like me don’t have a say.” They live in parts of the country with racial resentment. Who Are Donald Trump's Supporters? - The Atlantic
Even better though is a working paper that studied July 2016 Gallup survey data in depth. Here’s the abstract: [INDENT][INDENT][INDENT]
Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump

Jonathan T. Rothwell
Gallup

August 11, 2016

Abstract:
The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for a large number of American adults, I analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably and contrast the results with those found for other candidates. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relative high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.

Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump by Jonathan T. Rothwell, Pablo Diego-Rosell :: SSRN [/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT] “Health”: "People living in commuting zones with higher white middle-aged mortality rates are much more likely to view Trump favorably. … "

Trump supporters are also more likely to live in areas with disproportionately higher shares of whites.

6

Trump’s base is those who seek an alternative to the political elites - some swung left to Bernie others went to the ‘business man’ / maverick / celeb. In the UK they went for Brexit and the socialist Corbyn.

Generally working class and underclass but increasingly that part of the middle class that feels increasingly threatened by insecurity.

We’re not short of a pattern now. It almost doesn’t matter what people like Trump say, it’s absolutely enough they aren’t mainstream politicians.

It’s in the wake of sub prime / Wall Street protectionism / the takeover by Goldmann Sachs / the 1% / lack of representation /maybe even the realisation that Obamacare is a good thing after decades of being told its unamerican - a general sense of having been taken for fools.

7

From ThinkProgress:

Trump has recognized his base & is embracing them.

8

I was sure that it was a bedrock of granite… or something equally dense…

9

They tend to have yellowish skin and four fingers on each hand. Haven’t quite figured out which state they live in, however.

10

It’s good to see that you’ve changed your opinion since last month in the Corbyn thread and are now agreeing with me. :wink:

11

You’re a strange one. Theresa May is still completely straddling the centre ground, not that I’ve mentioned her since last month.

12

Favorability doesn’t really measure intensity of that perception. Some polls ask in terms of very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable. A lot of the conversation rolls those together losing the better description. Even that isn’t much granularity though. If you asked something like rate their favorability from 1 to 10 the poll might show better differentiation. The poll data simply isn’t well suited to make the comparison of enthusiasm IMO.

13

Slap that base!

http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/video/219437/Shall-We-Dance-Movie-Clip-Slap-That-Bass-.html

14

I feel like that’s a lot of thinkin’ for someone who probably puts “School of Hard Knocks” as their “Education” on Facebook and probably still lives within 50 miles from where they grew up.

I think it’s a mistake to assume all Trump followers are poor dumb hillbillies though. I see plenty of people I went to high school and college with who are Trump supporters (or at the very least, anti-Hillary). All are white though. Most tend to skew more classically blue collar or working class jobs or industries. They tend to live in small towns, rather than big cities. Some were people who I remember as “jerks”.

Basically I would characterize them as simple people who appreciate simple solutions to problems that they have overly simplified.

To a large extent they don’t trust the establishment. At best, they think it is made up of over-intellectualized idealists who don’t really understand or care about the interests of regular people. At worst, they think they are dishonest.

So while Trump might seem dishonest based on his business activities, it’s a dishonestly they understand. Trump supporters generally don’t understand how or why a bunch of Wall Street guys got rich screwing up the economy and then got bailed out by the government.

15

Here’s the latest blurb from CNN on a Pew poll.

Additionally, women surveyed back Clinton over Trump 49% to 30%, respectively, while men support Trump 45% to 33%.

I just don’t get it. Are men blind to social issues, bad behavior, foot-in-mouth speaking, complete stupidity?

16

It drives me crazy, as a white male heterosexual atheist (if I was a Protestant, I would ring ALL the bells). What is this lockstep with Republicans? Do we really lack any sense of empathy?

There’s a feature in today’s NY Times about how Trump’s support from EDUCATED white dudes is slipping. I assume it’s because we’re better off financially, and don’t feel a need to wrest rights and/or privileges away from those uppity broads and dark-skinned slackers?

Also 'cause we listen to Trump’s speeches and are completely embarrassed for him?

17

Fact resistant humans.

18

People who support Trump see him as an uncouth but successful businessman whose heart is in the right place and they see Clinton as a shrill, manipulative, careerist, ineffectual and corrupt politician who mishandled Benghazi and created a national security fiasco with her email. Like a Rodney Dangerfield character running against Selena Meyer from Veep.

People who support Clinton see her as a principled, competent, experienced, (if still somewhat careerist) politician with some flaws like any other and they see Trump as a giant moronic asshole. Like Tea Leoni’s character on Madam Secretary running for President against a Rodney Dangerfield character.

19

There’s quite a number who see the significance of her as a woman, the first woman, and are holding their nose very, very hard.

20

I think the fact that men tend to be more linear thinkers is contributing here. Problem, solution, done.

Of course, I’m sure there’s a component of sexism there, too.