Who is Trump's base?

[Measure_for_Measure]

@up_the_junction

Generally working class and underclass but increasingly that part of the middle class that feels increasingly threatened by insecurity. …

It’s in the wake of sub prime / Wall Street protectionism / the takeover by Goldmann Sachs / the 1% / lack of representation /maybe even the realisation that Obamacare is a good thing after decades of being told its unamerican - a general sense of having been taken for fools.

My linked paper says something else. Areas where there is more manufacturing (vulnerable to foreign competition) don’t especially lean towards Trump. Closeness to Mexico doesn’t equate to increased support for Trump.

Any sources of insecurity are social, not directly economic. I think there’s basis for your failed policies hypothesis though. States that blocked free money from Washington in the form of medicare expansion might be expected to have higher mortality. And higher mortality was related to Trump support.

@DinoR

Favorability doesn’t really measure intensity of that perception. Some polls ask in terms of very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable. A lot of the conversation rolls those together losing the better description. Even that isn’t much granularity though. If you asked something like rate their favorability from 1 to 10 the poll might show better differentiation. The poll data simply isn’t well suited to make the comparison of enthusiasm IMO.

I figured that the numbers of superTrumpers (who attend rallies) aren’t especially interesting. The base is necessarily much larger than that. I agree it’s smaller than the number of those who have a favorable opinion of Trump, but we go with the polling we have. Favorability stats have the advantage that we can make historic comparison. I figure it’s reasonable to say that 50-80% of those who have a favorable opinion of Candidate X, make up that person’s base. Maybe. Whatever that is.

@msmith537

I think it’s a mistake to assume all Trump followers are poor dumb hillbillies though.

Yes. In fact Trump supporters don’t tend to be especially poor.

I see plenty of people I went to high school and college with who are Trump supporters (or at the very least, anti-Hillary). All are white though. Most tend to skew more classically blue collar or working class jobs or industries. They tend to live in small towns, rather than big cities. Some were people who I remember as “jerks”.

Basically I would characterize them as simple people who appreciate simple solutions to problems that they have overly simplified.

To a large extent they don’t trust the establishment. At best, they think it is made up of over-intellectualized idealists who don’t really understand or care about the interests of regular people. At worst, they think they are dishonest.

So while Trump might seem dishonest based on his business activities, it’s a dishonestly they understand. Trump supporters generally don’t understand how or why a bunch of Wall Street guys got rich screwing up the economy and then got bailed out by the government.

Trump will sell out those folks so quickly. We know this because he already has: see Trump U. They will be easy pickings after Trump loses the election and begins forming his media organization.

@Morgenstern

Here’s the latest blurb from CNN on a Pew poll.

Additionally, women surveyed back Clinton over Trump 49% to 30%, respectively, while men support Trump 45% to 33%.

I just don’t get it. Are men blind to social issues, bad behavior, foot-in-mouth speaking, complete stupidity?

No. They are not. From the gallup poll, nonwhite males favor Hillary by a wide margin (taking Hillary favorability and subtracting Trump favorability). By the same measure, all males favor Trump by only 6 points.

It’s white males that are Trump’s base. But not all of them. Only 49% of white males have a favorable view of Trump - 25% have a favorable view of Hillary. To get that number above 50%, you have to do some imputation like:

white males without a college education
and/or
white males over 50.

@Ukulele_Ike

It drives me crazy, as a white male heterosexual atheist (if I was a Protestant, I would ring ALL the bells). What is this lockstep with Republicans? Do we really lack any sense of empathy?

Net favorability for Hillary is 22% among No religion/Atheist/Agnostic.
All that said, demographics are hardly destiny. There are plenty of Bernie supporters in the most red states for example. Also, I imagine we all know folk who will vote for Trump that do not have a favorable view of him. That’s unfortunate as Trump is wholly unqualified while Gary Johnson meets minimum standards. I say this as an opponent of purist libertarianism and other utopian ideologies.

[Ukulele_Ike]

You would think that we Godless types would be more welcoming to this hellish spawn of a Lilith/Hecate lesbian sex encounter.

[DinoR]

@Measure_for_Measure

I agree it’s smaller than the number of those who have a favorable opinion of Trump, but we go with the polling we have. Favorability stats have the advantage that we can make historic comparison. I figure it’s reasonable to say that 50-80% of those who have a favorable opinion of Candidate X, make up that person’s base. Maybe. Whatever that is.

I agree that it’s useful data and at least we have it across multiple elections. Sometimes, especially in the media, people try to read a lot more into it.

The "base or “grassroots” is a pretty vague term. I tend to think the implication in the way those terms are typically used is more along the lines of the ardent supporters with almost no chance of being swung. IMO that’s a better fit to the very favorable rating than the aggregated approval ratings. I’m not sure if anybody’s looked at whether candidate to candidate there’s any kind of meaningful difference in the ratio of very to somewhat favorable. It’s certainly hard to get a sense of that from typical coverage that aggregates them. Trying to dig them out poll by poll and compare sounds interesting but like a lot of work.

[Measure_for_Measure]

@DinoR

The "base or “grassroots” is a pretty vague term. I tend to think the implication in the way those terms are typically used is more along the lines of the ardent supporters with almost no chance of being swung. IMO that’s a better fit to the very favorable rating than the aggregated approval ratings. I’m not sure if anybody’s looked at whether candidate to candidate there’s any kind of meaningful difference in the ratio of very to somewhat favorable. It’s certainly hard to get a sense of that from typical coverage that aggregates them. Trying to dig them out poll by poll and compare sounds interesting but like a lot of work.

Fair enough.
I think in the context of this thread, the underlying question is, “Who the hell supports this guy?” Yeah, I know: evil Hillary will Benghazi us by refusing to say radical Islamic terrorism. So some have problems with Trump but will vote for him anyway. I think I’m asking here who actually is in sync with Trump. It sure isn’t the Republican Congress or most of the big money Republican donor base. That is to say, it isn’t the GOP establishment.

The answer seems to be “White dudes without a college education over 50.” Unfortunately, the above analysis hasn’t discussed regions, except to say that Trump is popular in areas where there are few people of color, high mortality, and low intergenerational economic mobility. (That last factor I would need to check though - I’m not sure I understood it correctly during my skim.)

[Euphonious_Polemic]

My WAG about Trump’s “base” (whatever that really means…)

Folks with a very high Authoritarian streak, primarily. They want a strong man to lead. Someone who will Do Things. Does not matter if those things are the right thing for the time, He will DO THINGS, and we will follow him.

Secondarily, folks with a big chip on their shoulder/fear about “the other”. The other who takes their job. The other who makes them feel guilty about past racial injustice. The other who might come and blow them up.

The Strong Leader will protect them from “the other”, by using simple solutions that those liberal eggheads just make complicated. Simple solutions from The Leader will be good. He will put things back to the way they were in the imaginary good times.

[Chihuahua]

This has been posted before but still a good read: Anatomy of a Trump voter: How racism propelled Trump to the Republican nomination | Salon.com

TLDR: Racists.

[septimus]

Who are voting for Trump? Articles offer differing analyses. Men despising their non-white neighbors? No, Trump support is highest in all-white or nearly all-white communities — their Fear of the Other is visceral rather than practical. Low-wage earners? No, although blue collar, Trump supporters have above-median income.

Now the Washington Post’s Jeff Guo has found an eerie correlation: Trump support is highest in counties where the death rate for whites is highest!

[Hyperelastic]

@Chihuahua

This has been posted before but still a good read: http://www.salon.com/2016/07/23/anatomy_of_a_trump_voter_how_racism_propelled_trump_to_the_republican_nomination/

TLDR: Racists.

What would it take for you to change your mind about racism being essential to Trump’s appeal?

[JohnT]

nm

[Measure_for_Measure]

septimus - The death rate stuff was also in the NBER paper linked upthread. I’ll also quote myself: "Any sources of insecurity are social, not directly economic. I think there’s basis for your failed policies hypothesis though. States that blocked free money from Washington in the form of medicare expansion might be expected to have higher mortality. And higher mortality was related to Trump support. "

@Hyperelastic

What would it take for you to change your mind about racism being essential to Trump’s appeal?

The usual. If there’s an hypothesis that provides a superior explanation to the observed polling and social media data, then I’ll have a look at it. Though it would be difficult to persuade me that David Duke’s and the Alt-right’s enthusiasm about Trump really just reflects their love for state’s rights.

I think lack of education and frankly naivete also plays a roll. Trump is a sales guy. He doesn’t have any deep knowledge of any topic, including casinos. He is mainly a media celebrity: he plays a businessman on TV. But someone with so many failed businesses to his name really can’t be called a success. It’s difficult to explain how the Republican primary base could have nominated somebody so unacceptable to the GOP establishment. It’s not like the establishment is picky. Rick Perry, who isn’t the brightest light on the porch, is a more credible Presidential candidate than Trump.

NPR today reported on the NBER paper that I linked to upthread: [INDENT][INDENT][INDENT] The conclusion of new research shows supporters of Donald Trump are not experiencing economic anxiety driven by trade and immigration policies, which are common themes of his campaign. …

KEITH: Right. And they’re also no more likely to live in areas that are affected by immigration or trade.

GREENE: Then what is driving them to support Donald Trump?

KEITH: This study says that there’s a stronger correlation with less strictly economic measures for social status, so health and what’s called intergenerational mobility.

…

Another thing the Gallup study talks about is racial isolation.

GREENE: What are they referring to there?

KEITH: Well, let’s just look at where I was. West Bend, Wis. - it’s about 45 minutes outside of Milwaukee…

GREENE: OK.

KEITH: …Which is a very racially divided city. West Bend, according to the census, is almost 95 percent white. [/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT] Research Challenges Assumptions On Why Voters Support Trump : NPR

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@Euphonious_Polemic

My WAG about Trump’s “base” (whatever that really means…)

Folks with a very high Authoritarian streak, primarily. They want a strong man to lead. Someone who will Do Things. Does not matter if those things are the right thing for the time, He will DO THINGS, and we will follow him.

Secondarily, folks with a big chip on their shoulder/fear about “the other”. The other who takes their job. The other who makes them feel guilty about past racial injustice. The other who might come and blow them up.

The Strong Leader will protect them from “the other”, by using simple solutions that those liberal eggheads just make complicated. Simple solutions from The Leader will be good. He will put things back to the way they were in the imaginary good times.

The “authoritarian personality” theory based on predicting one’s “authoritarianism” and thus one’s politics via views on child rearing has been a popular one this election cycle but alas the evidence suggests it’s little more then warmed over postwar pseudo-Freudian psychobabble. Ironically in an article that claims Trump supporters are disproportionately authoritarian, the author shoots himself in the foot with the support chart which shows that while Trump supporters are somewhat more likely then the average American to be “authoritarian”, blacks and Hispanic Catholics are even more likely to be “authoritarian”. And despite what the Donald is saying, I don’t think anybody on this forum believes that large numbers of blacks and Hispanics are flocking to his banner.

[Measure_for_Measure]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

The “authoritarian personality” theory based on predicting one’s “authoritarianism” and thus one’s politics via views on child rearing has been a popular one this election cycle but alas the evidence suggests it’s little more then warmed over postwar pseudo-Freudian psychobabble.

I think you are correct to be leery of this idea’s application to 2016. But I don’t think Corey Robin or George Lakoff are especially Freudian, post-Freudian, or babble prone.

Ironically in an article that claims Trump supporters are disproportionately authoritarian, the author shoots himself in the foot with the support chart which shows that while Trump supporters are somewhat more likely then the average American to be “authoritarian”, blacks and Hispanic Catholics are even more likely to be “authoritarian”. And despite what the Donald is saying, I don’t think anybody on this forum believes that large numbers of blacks and Hispanics are flocking to his banner.

Fair enough, but just because you like strongmen, doesn’t mean you will like a strongman who has it in for you.

I’ll note though that Trump supporters scored slightly (insignificantly?) less authoritarian than those who self-identified as Republican. So either authoritarian predispositions are an insufficient explanation of Trumpism or the proxy for authoritarianism missed something. (My take: I want to see a multiple variable approach, like the NBER paper.)
I wouldn’t give up the concept altogether though. The history of liberalism can be easily traced back to the 18th century. With modern conservatism, it’s difficult to go much beyond the 1950s. As a result, most histories of modern conservatism basically start with Buckley or later. (Edmund Burke is a partial exception, but it’s difficult to square his incrementalism with Gingrich et al.) Yet surely the conservative stance goes way back. The lens of authoritarianism provides one way of understanding this particular stream of historical thought.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

I’m not sure anymore who is in Trump’s base.

Not even former deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who has done so far as to call Trump dangerous, and speculate he might vote for Clinton.

Even conservative talk radio types are jumping ship:

“We have reached the bizarro-world point where, for all intents and purposes, conservatives are RINOs,” said John Ziegler, a nationally syndicated conservative talk show host who called Andrew Breitbart a friend. “There is no place now for real conservatives. We’ve also reached the point, I say, we’ve left the gravitational pull of the rational Earth, where we are now in a situation where facts don’t matter, truth doesn’t matter, logic doesn’t matter.”

Coulter and Palin are getting mad as Trump is trying to pivot on immigration. So his pivot has just served to piss off the immigrant-haters.

Who’s left?

[DSeid]

@Euphonious_Polemic

… Who’s left?

Well per the latest poll, Quinnipiac’s, about 41% of those who their screen identifies as “likely voters” and 38% in a four-way. Okay, to be fair they may not be his base as much as they are those who dislike Clinton that much: “64 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting mainly anti-Clinton, while 25 percent say they are voting pro-Trump” but still, that’s about 10% of the likely voters (28% of self-identified Republicans) who really like Trump. Probably those are who you’d call “his base” that are left.

For the largest chunk of the rest the issue is that they do not find Clinton “likeable enough.”

[Measure_for_Measure]

Ezra Klein at Vox discusses the NBER study, which was based on some 80,000+ respondents to Gallup, collected this Spring. Unfortunately, it’s in a 6 minute video. I say it’s worth it though: Klein is a little more fair minded (and interesting) than I am.
It’s not economics. It’s not about having immigrants take your job. It’s not even about economic anxiety. It’s about something else.

All of these will link to the video. (I have a strange intuition that at least some of them might go stale at one point: I couldn’t find a dedicated link.)

What the media gets wrong about Donald Trump Voters:

Scroll to the bottom:

Donald Trump just made his worst tweet yet

Direct link:
https://amp.twimg.com/v/b40d1011-5d18-4c3f-ad3c-be8b955469dd

Facebook:

[astro]

I know exactly who supports Trump. It’s not actually all poor, uneducated racists. It’s a lot of the people I worth with and do business with. Decent, age 35+, middle to high income, tax paying, college educated, hard working, church going (or not) white people who are little “r” racists. And these people aren’t even all that socially conservative but they really HATED Obama. I mean set him on fire hated. He was all their boogeymen rolled into one. Trump is the only one who is carrying that torch this go round.

In the end (IMO) with Trump the core support is really all about racism and there are FAR more racist whites that any survey will ever pick up. Hillary is incidental it’s still really all about striking a blow against Obama.

[Locrian]

I’ve been saying the same things as Ezra in his video since Brexit, and many others in media, friends, family: it’s not racism, it’s fear.

Ezra points out what many have missed in the increase of immigrants in population. I like how he says, “That’s why you press one for English”. Plenty of people joke about that. Evidently, some take it personally? I suppose.

What’s really different, though? Last I checked, prisons are mostly, black, mexican, immigrant, gang related, etc. So making the country “great again” probably just means making it ignorant again.

[Aspenglow]

Someone I know on another forum made the following post, and with his permission (albeit with a stipulation that he remain anonymous), I will quote it below, verbatim:

*"In the primary race, trump was most definately not my guy. In a race against hilary, he is.

Say something nice? Well, OK, in spite of the clear fact that him winning the primary without spending much of any money is totally impossible, or even after spending LOADS of money, he did it.

I would rather listen to a dog barking endlessly while I am trying desperately to sleep than listen to him on my best day.

I would pay $50 to be allowed to give him a haircut.

I would like to stuff a sock in his mouth and make him write down what he was going to say, then decide whether or not to remove, for a short while only, the sock.

I would like to put a shock collar on him, tuned to spark every time he starts to utter the word “amazing” or any of his other pet superlatives.

I’m pretty sure that if he wins, we are going to see a level of chaos never before dreamed of in our government.

All that being said, I don’t believe we can be saved by anything OTHER THAN chaos, because that very thing is at the heart of individual liberty, and may well be the only thing that can prevent the serfdom of the left. The great blessing of chaos is that nobody can rule it.

Everybody with a brain knew he couldn’t possibly be where he is today, and yet here he is. Do I know what he is up to? Of course not. Whatever it is, I’m pretty sure I DO know what Hilary is up to, and I would prefer anything else to that…"*

I think his words, though in my opinion woefully misinformed, pretty much capture what is behind Trump’s popularity.

There’s another thing, and I think it is far less discussed. It’s the element of misogyny. They’d be loathe to speak it aloud, but there are a fair number of older white men who are really not comfortable with the notion of a woman in ultimate power. Here’s an interesting perspective that speaks to this issue very well: In Defense of Hillary.

[BigT]

@Locrian

I’ve been saying the same things as Ezra in his video since Brexit, and many others in media, friends, family: it’s not racism, it’s fear.

The video specifically cites racism, and the fear it talks about is racist fear. It is the fear of the OTHER, of the people who are not like US.

That is, at its heart, what racism is. That’s why being around diversity is such a great racism killer.

Or, at least, that’s how I’ve always thought of it. Anger is a secondary emotion, after all.

[Locrian]

@BigT

The video specifically cites racism, and the fear it talks about is racist fear. It is the fear of the OTHER, of the people who are not like US.

That is, at its heart, what racism is. That’s why being around diversity is such a great racism killer.

Or, at least, that’s how I’ve always thought of it. Anger is a secondary emotion, after all.

Well, you’ve got a point there. It reminds me of the Dr. Seuss story with the star on the bellies (what was that again?).

For me, I hated the white schools, white churches, white neighborhoods by the time I hit my teens. I loved going to the city, sports, music-- diversity. I remember I met the first kid who had divorced parents-- when I was 12, for goodness sake. I live in Los Angeles County now, and I’d never go live in a place that is mainly white, even white trash.