It’s not uncommon for the ignorant to say things like, “There’s gonna be a war, a big war: I know it.” Fearful thinking as poorly grounded as wishful thinking.
To your forum acquaintance I say: "Hillary will be our next President. What exactly is the outcome you fear? Because I’ll be keeping track of that in 4 years. Your concerns about freedom are empty. I’ve heard this crap before. "
As a 60-year old white man without a college degree who strongly supports Hillary, I guess I’m a bit of an outlier. Is there a demographic I can be put in that fits would prefer to fly under tne radar so polls can’t be used effectively to counter my opposition to Trump?
If it wouldn’t compromise his anonymity too much, do you have any idea where this guy fits in the demographics of the Trump supporter profiled in the OP?
I know this is an N of 1, but I grew up in a dense suburb in the urbanized Northeast USA corridor. There was plenty of “diversity,” plenty of people who were not like me. I had several friends whose parents were divorced (not sure why this is a good thing,) and my own parents divorced around the time I graduated from college. I had lots of extended family who were religious, but my own parents weren’t, and most people seemed to reflexively hold moderate liberal views.
Now, I’m a college educated professional who is a Trump supporter. I love white schools, white churches, and white neighborhoods. I also love going to the city, sports, and music, but it’s not particularly for the presence of non-whites that I love those things. Were I ever to have a family, I’d deliberately choose to live in as white an area as possible, though not white trash.
Are you a Trump supporter because you feel there will be more white areas for you to raise a family in? Do you think a Trump administration will make more areas that are as white an area as possible?
Speaking on behalf of trailer-trash peckerwoods everywhere, we deeply regret that we will be deprived of your company. We can only hope that somehow, some way, we will find the strength to go on.
No you are not really an outlier. I can’t find any evidence that Trump captures more than 2/3 of any demographic. Hillary does. Trump might, but I haven’t found polling that slices the groups that finely.
Go into any red state and there will be Bernie supporters. Go into any blue state and there will plenty of believers, even fundamentalists. We know this, but speaking personally it’s easy to lose sight of it.
I’m guessing you weren’t entirely serious, but I wouldn’t bother playing around with the polling. Because they are used for all sorts of purposes, they are probably impossible to game. The interesting stuff tracks relationships, not shares of one demographic or another.
Read my last post. Imagine a pie chart. Some demographics might be 3/5 Trump, others might be 1/5. The idea is to use the demographics to figure something out about Trump’s appeal. But if there’s a 1/5 chance that a certain demographic is a Trump (or Hillary) supporter, you can’t really make generalizations about that demographic.
If you play the game Monopoly, you know that doubles are rolled often but not a majority of the time. In fact they are rolled 1/6th of the time. You wouldn’t want to rule out such an outcome in a casual encounter.
That said, your presentation seems to me to be very much in sync with Ezra Klein’s presentation of the NBER data. (Shockingly so, in my view, given the difficulty of teasing out conclusion from data.) Had you viewed that vid before making your post?
You sound a lot like many of my conservative friends, many of whom are just “instinctively” (spelling?) supporting trump. As I do with all my friends, I want to really think about your choice and what that says about how cast your vote… If it’s all about casting the “white culture” block vote, then just don’t do it
Thanks for posting this. Thinking it over though, I don’t see this guy as a member of Trump’s base, as I define it. He is merely anti-Hillary. That part I understand. Politics have tribalized over the past 25 years: I blame the conservative media - talk radio and Fox news. (Trump apparently wants in on that action.)
(Technically, rabid anti-Hillaryites are a big part of Trump’s base, but I was wondering about the other part which consists of those who actually like the idea of him being President. As opposed to, say, an establishment Republican broadly defined. You know, one with some actual political experience.)
hijack: Trump will lose. The alt-Right will be contained. But breaking down tribalism will be more difficult. Democrats need to reach out to neuro-typical pro-science Republicans and independents, and encourage them to lean away from hate, ignorance and derp. Both at the ballot box and when they view political media. We need a better opposition, one grounded in science. Among other things, that means reaching out to those we disagree with. It’s going to be hard: conservative information sources that take reality seriously exist, but they are few in number.
Also, the more uniformly “white culture” your area is, the less likely its members to even consider not voting like the rest of their cultural block…
The reason why I say “white culture” and not just “white” (probably not being PC here) is because I find many non whites that aspire influence and wealth tend to behave as white as they can be… (A fools errand of course) - that live in heavily white areas, not talking about NYC here… I’m talking wealthy Houston/San Antonio areas etc
After the election, Trump will testify in an elder abuse lawsuit. In 2019 aspects of his mental fitness may come under greater scrutiny. Armed with an extensive donor list, Trump will attempt to suck his most loyal supporters into investment scams: he will enjoy partial success.
Got a nickel says his kids have quietly consulted lawyers about a petition to grant them power of attorney because the old man has lost his shit, and is aiming to lose theirs.
I don’t think it compromises his anonymity to say he hits all the OP’s demographics except being a veteran. Male, white, over 50, non-college educated.
Reading Measure for Measure’s most recent post, I agree that I missed the intent of his OP. This fellow is so anti-Hillary, he doesn’t care that he’s also anti-Trump. I just thought his words were insightful to how a loosely-defined Trump supporter thinks.
The scary thing is, this fellow’s post is one of the more sane ones from that site. Most of the Trump supporters are flat out delusional. They are also even more rabidly anti-Hillary than my anonymous poster. They attribute all sorts of untrue and/or non-provable characteristics to Trump. They would follow him over a cliff, and almost none of it is based in any reality about their candidate.