Who, really, are the "Iraqi Insurgents"?

I am enjoying my vacation in the Bay Area quite nicely thank you, and I’m taking these precious few computer moments to spawm another thread with an ambiguous and obvious answer.

I’ll start with the answer. “A little of all of them.”

The question is, who are the “Iraqi insurgents”?

They tend to get lumped into groups by both sides (mainly by the side intent on killing them and taking their land, but some lefties group them as well).

The righties claim that they are remnants of Saddam’s elite Republican guard. My theory on that is that they appreciate the word “Republican” and assume it means something good. My assessment is that the Iraqi army crumbled like an oragami duck the second an American boot set foot on it. They had no real loyalty, and have no real purpose in fighting for… well, whatever they would be fighting for (I dunno, the release of Saddam?) In my estimation, I think they seeped out and joined up with whichever militia suited their desires, religiously, ethnically, tribally, economically, whatever. Each person is different. So, there may indeed be ex-Iraqi army soldiers fighting in Iraq, but they are not united in any way whatsoever and may as well be considered part of the general populace (albeit ones slightly more trained in field munitions than the rest).

Ah, the militias. The second Saddam fell, the militias, as in Afghanistan, swept down like vultures upon Iraq, strong-arming cities, frequently waging tribal warfare. Some took land to hold and fight off hte Americans, some let the Americans pass by and work as more of a mafia than an army, behind US lines. I’ve read many accounts of towns being raided by these militias with thefts and assassinations of local leaders being the goals.

The foreign terrorist. The “professional” from some other Muslim country who by plot or will snuck into Iraq and are seeking to destabilize the “sovereign” government, and sometimes to lead a radical Muslim revolution. Their goal is to make the situation look as messy as possible, and they are primarily responsible for attacks on industrial and infrastructure components.

The Shi’a or Sunni muslims fighting for domination over Iraq once American leaves (approx 2056)

Then you have the “pissed off Iraqi”… the guy who wasn’t a big fan of Saddam, but got by, sees the opportunity opening up for Iraq, but doesn’t want an American-imposed government, especially one that is secular (he is, after all, probably Muslim). He isn’t a big fan of the other groups, but America has become his sworn enemy. He has seen family members die by direct or indirect forces of the invasion. He wants America gone and Iraq to take care of its own problems (though he lacks foresight in how a so divided Iraq could possibly achieve what it needs to - unless without a lot of UN aid and funding).

And several other groups with similar interests. The thing that binds them together is hatred of Americans in Iraq. They know they can not fight the Army or Marines, and certainly not the Air Force, so they resort to the only method that can work against such forces - insurgency and “terrorism”.

A critical error in the US policy is not distinguishing these groups properly, and not establishing control by allowing the various militias to enforce their own order.

Anyway, the Big Game is about to start. Fiat Lux, Stanford Sucks. We’ll crush 'em (and hopefully not leave behind a trail of disaster and misfortune like the US)

I’ll tell you what they are. The murderous scumbags who are relishing at the chance at distorting the elections which will take place.

As always, your simplification of complex issues is astounding Zag.

Really an IMHO thing as no one really knows exactly. One can speculate though. MY guess is that most of the spear carriers in the insurgency are Iraqi’s. Many of them are former Iraqi military and probably the majority of those are Sunni. Why are they fighting? Certainly not from ‘loyalty’ of the old regime. Easy answer is because the Sunni’s see themselves of being disinfranchized by the Shi’a of course. Probably some of them fear the same kinds of reprisals that THEY would have dealt out (and did deal out) when they gained the whip hand over the Shi’ite factions.

That accounts for the bulk of Iraqi insurgents IMO. The rest are probably made up of young kids who are just angry about the invasion or have real scores to settle…or who don’t have anything else to do with their lives in the current Iraqi situation.

The non-Iraqi insurgents are probably from all over the region and are made up mostly of folks who are rushing to Iraq to kill Americans or defend Islam or gods know what else. I think these folks make up the majority of the leadership (but this is just my opinion of course…nothing to back it up with but guesses).

Not going to really get into the rest of your rant except to say that you really need to learn to focus in your OPs. Ask a specific question or set of questions, try and keep it as rant free as possible, and don’t wander completely off tangent. Just some friendly advice for the future…especially in light of the fact that you do a new thread at least several times a day. :slight_smile:

-XT

No one thinks that the Iraqi’s might just not like being invaded and occupied? Let me pose a question. Were it turned around and it was Iraq that invaded the US in order to depose Duhbya and impose an Islamic government. Would no one be an insurgent?

I sure as hell would be. Even given how much I despise Bushco.

Resenting the US invasion isn’t the same thing as actively rebelling after the fact. I don’t really see the wide spread popular support for the insurgency among the general population Reeder…perhaps you could show me some evidence of it and I’ll change my mind. I’ve seen figures that range from something like 5,000 insurgents up to around 60,000 (the upper range is VERY hard to swallow btw). Either way we aren’t talking about a very large percentage of the population involved actively involved. Unless we assume that the rest of the population generally supports the insurgents (something again I’ve seen no evidence of) covertly, I don’t see how you can make the comparison.

Perhaps…just perhaps mind you…the Iraqi’s WEREN’T too happy under Saddam and AREN’T willing to fight it out to maintain that way of life? Perhaps…again, just perhaps…the Iraqi’s resent the US intervention, but are so unhappy with the old regime that they are pretty much appathetic now between the insurgents and the US? And perhaps…just a theory here…the bulk of the people fighting are fighting not because they necessarily hate Americans, but because they resent or fear being disinfranchised by a ‘democratic’ system…as opposed to the totalitarian system they had before where the Sunni basically held the whip hand over the Shi’ite majority.

Well sure…but then you (in theory anyway) generally like our system and are willing to fight to defend it. Perhaps the average Iraqi really DIDN’T like the old system Reeder…I know this is a radical concept, but just maybe they HATED the old government and are generally appathetic, wanting neither a return to the old ways, being blown apart by car bombs by the new thugs in town, nor enjoy having the US/UK lord it over them or occupy their country.

-XT

No insurgency can work without the support of the populace. Just look at the insurgency in Germany at the end of WW2.

This insurgency seems to be doing quite well. So it has to good support among the people. Not 100% I’m sure, but enough to maintain itself.

I don’t think it’s that they want to return to the old government but that they want to form their own. Not one dictated by the United States.

I don’t think we have ever had a war in which the general US public understood less about who we were fighting, what their motivations was, etc. That said, I don’t think “no one” knows, the US military must have captured several thousand insurgents and thier supporters by now, I’m sure they have a very good idea of who the groups involved are. But like all gov’ts in war time, they pass on a villified version rather then an honest look at the insurgency to thier population (I’m not saying the insurgency doesn’t deserve some villification, but the official US picture of the insurgency isn’t any more informative then Ryan_Liam’s first post).

This seems to be the picture I’ve gotten as well. More or less secular Sunni’s in tangent with religious foreign fighters. There’s also the Al-Sadr contingent ,which is pretty much a seperate group and seems to be on hold to see how the election shakes out.

I agree, but I think that the insurgency relies mainly on support from Sunni’s. The polls that I’ve seen (from almost a year ago, so things may have changed) indicated that the insurgency had something like 70% support inside the Sunni provinces but much less in Shitte ones (again, discounting Sadr and similar Shitte groups) and almost nil in Kurdish areas. Since the insurgency is concentrated in Sunni areas, it does have the support of the population locally, but not necessarily on a national scale.

Cool…using a blog as a cite.

Great work RL.
:dubious:

Reeder said:

So… Do you think the residents of Fallujah would like them back?

Or, they’re just freaking brutal, and they are controlling small segments of the population through fear. That appears to be the case in Fallujah.

The worst kind of moral equivalence. Let’s frame the question properly: Let’s say Dubya became a dictator. Let’s say the ‘blue states’ didn’t like it, so he ordered chemical attacks on them and killed millions of New Yorkers. He puts down an uprising in the Bayou by draining the swamps and destroying the culture. Jeb Bush is installed as head of security, and he’s a homicidal maniac who rapes women, goes around shooting people in the head who speak out. Bush’s secret police are everywhere. You’re afraid to speak your mind about just about anything, because you never know if the person you are talking to is going to inform on you and you will be beaten or murdered. Or maybe you’ll be a ‘walking lesson’ - a person who’s entire family is dragged into the street and shot in front of you so you can be a reminder to others of the price of disloyalty.

Now imagine that after 20 years of this, Tony Blair says, “Enough!”, and British soldiers invade the U.S. to restore democracy and get rid of the tyrant.

Are you still going to take up arms against the brits?

Wow Sam. Are you a seer? That scenario was so real I could taste it.

As to the residents of Fallujah. Why didn’t they flee from the insurgents? There was nothing to stop them. They sure as hell fled when they learned the US was coming in.

That all depends Sam. Are the Brits going to let me decide what my country is going to be? Or are they going to dictate to me what it will be?

Insurgency Near Achieving One of its Major Goals

It’s not just ‘small segments of the population’ they’re controlling through fear Sam, its Iraq’s political leaders as well.

Sam Stone

Reeder specifically, probably not. A red stater? Highly likely. And the analogy you present seems skewed. The Iraqis were quite behind the idea of getting rid of Saddam and choosing a government. The problem is the Americans have been there for almost two years now and not only has there been no sign of them having any say in their governance, but they’re increasingly seeing signs of a Saddam-esque form of government taking over. It’s just not Saddam himself.
That’s nowhere near Tony Blair coming to the US to overthrow a dictator (not to mention if he had used a different excuse to show up in the first place).

I don’t think that’s what was being suggested. But I think it’s hard to deny that as American hostility increased, the hostility towards the insurgents decreased. If that were not the case, they could not continue to still be there now.

Er…reality check Reeder. MOST of them DID flee Fallujah bro. There is almost never a case where every one leaves such a situation. Some stay because they have no choice…they have too. Others think to ride it out and hope for the best. Or are you claiming the majority of folks stayed in Fallujah and the US has been lieing again?

Well, in defense of the average American its a pretty chaotic situation over there, with a hell of a lot of subtle aspects, divided loyalties, and strange alliances. I actually don’t agree the the US military has a complete handle on what the actual situation is either…I really don’t think anyone (but perhaps a few experts on the history, social, economic, political and religious aspects of the region) REALLY have a good handle on the situation either…certainly I make no outstanding claims to my own understanding. I think this is shown by some of the mistakes the US has made in this war to date.

But on the other hand, leaving aside the fact I don’t really think we should be there at all, I think they have actually done a fairly good job in Iraq all things considered…at least from a military perspective. I’m unsure that there really is ANY good way to do what we did…which is kind of why I didn’t think we should go into Iraq (or any other ME) country for any but the most dire reasons.

-XT

Yes they fled as I said. But only after the US told them to get out. Their “fear” of the insurgents did not cause them to flee.

There is no one insurgency!

There are 100, no 1000 insurgencies. And their goals, ideologies & resources are each unique.

The smallest is the kid who spikes the tires of US Hum-Vees cause he thinks it’s fun.
The largest may be an ethnic faction, crime lord’s hood army or foreign fighting force.

But it’s a whole lotta brush fires.

Aw come on Reeder. Getting a report from someone who is right there in the thick of it merits more credence than the ravings of a poster who gets all his info on Iraq third hand.

It’s hard to know what the Fallujahns think of the insurgency. My impression was that the people there were behind the uprising, at least when it first happend. They were in a part of Iraq that had not suffered overly much from Saddam’s rule, the city was Sunni dominated, had a history of revolt, suffered many civilian casulties during the first US assult on the city, etc. It was, I belive, the town leaders who negotiated the deal whereby the revolt was not immmeditly crushed by the US but instead a Baathist commander took control of the city.

Of course that was many months and many bombs ago. The situation in the city obviously deteriated under its independent rule, apparently turning into a mini-islamic state, so I doubt the citizens are as keen on the rule of insurgents as they were last year. Of course, during the same time period they were being bombed by American planes so they probably aren’t too keen on the Americans either. My best guess would be that it’s not a matter of who the general populace supports, but rather who they hate the least. In fact, this probably is true of much of the rest of the country as well.

This is deffinately true. At the least the Sadrists are seperate from the Baathists. There are probably a hundred other fractions that are harder to see from here. That said, at least some of the groups seem to be allied in one way or another, and I imagine there are some very interesting bedfellows. This is why its so hard to find out who the insurgency is, they really aren’t a coherrent group, rather they’re warring factions who happen to have a common enemy.