Sorry for another baseball themed thread, but last night the Cardinals (who got spanked by the White Sox BTW) sent pinch hitter Keith MacDonald to the plate, who was recently activated from the minors. He got his third hit in 6 at bats. Not so special in itself, but all 3 hits have been homeruns! He has a slugging percentage of 2.000. Where have the Cardinals been hiding this guy? I hope this isn’t just a fluke (which it probably is) and the Cardinals have actually found someone to beef up their bench a little more.
Remember Shane Spenser, September callup for the Yanks about two or three years ago? He hit HRs his first month at a rate that would’ve made McGwuire or Babe Ruth blush. Then he settled to earth and is, I believe, back in bench or minor league obscurity these days.
Wait until the pitchers realise that MacDonald strikes out at Preston Wilson-esque ratios, and he’ll be back in AAA real soon now.
I remember one of the broadcasters saying something about how MacDonald hasn’t hit a HR in the minors, so I’m sure it’s just a freak thing going on with him right now. It kinda reminds me of the character Cerano (sp?) from Major League.
Coach “This guy hits the ball a mile, how come nobody has picked up on him before? Throw him a curve ball.”
- whiff *
Coach “oh”
six at bats do not a season make.
ya gotta reserve judgment until he’s had at least 10.
Spencer was getting some time in LF, blew out his knee fielding a single against the Mets on the first pitch in the game after the Clemens/Piazza game. Looked routine, but he fell and the batter (Mora?) took second.
Want some 1 day wonders? John Paciorek, 3 for 3 his only game. (Yes, Tom’s brother)
Karl Spooner, BKLYN, think it was 2 SO at end of first year, hurt arm in Spring Training next year.
Some guy named Schmidt won 20+ his only ML season. Don't know why it was his only.
Oh, and before this year, the only guy to HR in his first 2 at bats was the immortal Bob Nieman.
Hoyt Wilhelm also hit a HR his first AB. He went on to pitch till he was about 340, and never hit another.Never apologize for a baseball thread! (Aside from flirting or Shakespeare or history, nothing is more certain to get my attention.)
MacDonald is likely a bit of a fluke. He’s 27 years old, and there’s generally a correlation between how good a player, particularly a hitter, is, and how early he gets regular playing time in the majors. In other words, if a player gets regular playing time at a very young age, he’s a good bet (but not a lead pipe cinch) to be a star, even if he doesn’t excel his first year: examples include Ken Griffey, Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and a whole host of others. This is one reason why a lot of knowledgable baseball fans are excited about Rafael Furcal, though there’s some debate if he’s really 19. If he is–look out! (This does not tend to be as true for pitchers, by the way, as one’s who excel at a young age often get arm injuries.)
Conversely, a hitter who reaches the majors for the first time at a fairly advanced age–26 or 27 years old or older–has a significantly above average chance of being a fluke if he does well. There are exceptions to this, but generally these exceptions post impressive minor league numbers (study such stats as batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and strikeout to walk ratio), but don’t get an opportunity for one reason or another.
Keith McDonald is 27, and if you look at his minor league numbers he has NEVER hit for power–28 minor league home runs in 6 seasons before this year. I doubt he’d hit 20 homers in a full season of at bats.
However, to be fair, he has hit for a pretty decent average in the minors and makes pretty good contact. With all due respect to Montfort, I DON’T believe he’ll strike out as frequently as Preston Wilson. However, he won’t homer like him, either. McDonald could be a bench player, but I wouldn’t expect him to get regular playing time.
Re Shane Spencer: as has been pointed out by lurkernomore, Shane Spencer did NOT go back to minor league obscurity. He got a bit of playing time in a platoon situation against lefties before he got hurt. He didn’t homer at a Ruthian pace, but it wasn’t fair to expect that he would. (However, his minor league numbers showed that at least 20 home run power in a full season was certainly achieveable). He (in my humble opinion) still has some value to a smart manager, as a pinch hitter and a platoon player against left handed pitchers. He’s got some power, but doesn’t offer much in the field, on the bases, and doesn’t hit for a good batting average. But a good manager will figure out how to maximize what he does well, and minimize what he does poorly (until he got hurt).
A really interesting player to watch is Russ Branyan of the Indians. Guy could hit forty homers, EASILY. But he could also strikeout 200 times, again, easily.
He was on the Travelers roster (AA) here in Little Rock last year. I haven’t been able to find any stats on him from last year on the Travs home page. In '98, he played in Memphis (AAA) and hit .318 with 7 HR. I presume that he was promoted back to Memphis to begin this season because he’s not on the 2000 roster and I don’t recall seeing him playing in any games this year.
Sometimes when a new kid gets called up, they don’t have great scouting reports on them. The real test comes when the big leaugue pitchers figure out how to pitch to him. Will he be able to adjust?
And I agree, there are never too many baseball threads!
Ok, so far everyone has posted telling me this guy is a fluke. I just wanted to point out that I said he probably was in the OP. I don’t think this guy is the next great player destined for the Hall of Fame. I just think it’s interesting that they call up some obscure minor league catcher and this is how he introduces himself.
I don’t know how it is with your fave teams, but the Cardinals have a tendency of bringing a player from the minors and hyping him up and he falls flat. (Last year’s JD Drew, but he’s doing much better this year) The players they just anonomously call up seem to perform (Joe McEwing’s 20+ game hitting streak last year, although he did cool down in the 2nd half)
BM,
Big difference in a 23-y.o. superprospect (Drew) and a 27 Y.O. McEwing. As Spooje said, they might not have a book on a lesser, unexpected prospect who’s already been traded and is riding pine in NY. Hits hard stuff, but curves give him problems at times. If there’s no book, it can confound the pitchers till they discover the weaknesses. Dry also makes a good point about age. Why is the guy in the minors till 27? If he plays several positions, (McEwing) he should break thru. If he plays only 1, he can get in a backwater, but JM wasn’t a 1B behind McGwire. Always get a few of these (also see Benny Agbayani, Mets, 1999). Also, some just come up when they are due for a hot streak. Can you say “statistically insignificant sample” ? I knew you could.
Another interesting player is Geraldo Guzman, pitcher, for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I believe he’s in his mid 20s. Apparently, the guy has NASTY stuff, but hurt his arm a few years ago. However, he’s spent the last few years working as a carpenter, in which vocation he’s been strengthening his arm. Don’t know how he was doing in the minors, but pitched well his first game up and is being given a shot to make the Arizona rotation.