Yes that is true and I think it means we might see a lot more of a Dem winning the popular vote but losing in the EC.
I think a couple of us are oversimplifying demographic changes a little. It’s not just about California. The rising generations of voters are overwhelmingly liberal and they’re not restricted to the west coast. Growth in Atlanta and other southern cities is making southern states less and less red with almost every election. Hispanics are growing as a percentage of the population all across the south, not just Texas.
Yes, demographics ain’t destiny. Hispanics could veer right in ensuing generations, for example. But for the immediate decade to come, Republicans are up against it when it comes to demographics and it will bring out the very worst in them. Democracy isn’t having a great decade as it is and the GOP is perfectly happy to stoke the idea that “anything goes if it is for a worthy cause.”
I have a feeling that in some sense, even though they’ve got control of the Presidency and Senate at the moment, they’ve got the tiger by the tail because they’ve gone all-in on the people who support Trump and people like him. But the problem is that changing demographics are against that- younger generations are more liberal and less white, and a lot of middle-aged people may have voted for him without realizing quite how hateful Trump and the current GOP is, and may seek to rectify that.
So what I think will happen is that they’ll go all in on that until it doesn’t work, then flail around a bit trying to figure out what’s going on, and then return a lot more moderate.
I think they are likely to swing back to some kind of religious figure. “This guy also hates immigration, not because of the color of their skin but because of “jobs” (wink-wink); and he’s built a successful megachurch that’s earned him millions of dollars! Plus, he actually stands for family values, like that Jesus invented guns to bless us all with piping hot lead!”
Does that get sidestepped if Pence becomes an incumbent running for re-election?
I’ve seen it suggested that Tucker Carlson could be da guy. (Forget Hannity. Too clownish.)
I hadn’t considered that. Trump is not a healthy man regardless of what his physical says. There’s some non-zero probability he’s suffering from a neurological disorder. If nothing else, then he’s not physically healthy.
If (and I’m not wishing for this) Trump dies in office and Pence becomes president, then I cannot imagine the Republicans turning away from Pence. That actually might be a path to some normalization of the GOP. As strange as that might sound because Pence is a theocrat. How did we get to the point where Pence is could be considered a more central, normal figure? Oh man, bizarre.
If Trump and the Republicans lose in 2020, then the party will hopefully decide it’s a repudiation of irrational politics and choose more reasonable candidates. They’ll probably still be conservatives but at least they’ll be presentable in public.
If they pull off a win, then it’ll be seen as an affirmation of Trumpism. In that case, Trump will be in a position to designate his political heir.
I don’t think a narrow loss will do it mainly as a narrow loss will indicate that the Republican base wants more Trump. A major defeat; however, would indicate that Trumpian politics is no longer a winning move.
I still don’t think a smarter, more restrained Trump would succeed (in the same way) as the current President. A not insignificant portion of Trump’s current voters would have contempt for him not “telling it like it is,” or being part of the swamp, or just say “who?”
So I’d lean towards the Nugent side, if those are the only options.
Watching Matt Gaetz in the impeachment hearings I thought he fit the bill of a next generation trump.
But I think that regardless of how lockstep the republican party is now behind trumpish “values”, the transition to a new leader will be full of uncertainties.
Trump presses a few buttons, and since no-one will be exactly the same as him (thank god), the new leader will just press some of the same buttons, and it could make a big difference to the direction of the party.
Maybe (s)he is also an ignorant bigot in the same popular way that trump is, but less focused on media / twitter and more inclined to follow the law? Maybe (s)he’s the opposite of that? A lot of different ways it could go.
Mike Pence is just a bone-stock Middle America white conservative Christian. They’re not my fellow travelers when it comes to ideology, but I’m also not afraid of them.
A true “theocrat” would be someone like Ted Cruz, and I am a little afraid of him and guys like him. But I don’t think they’re the future of the Republican party.
The future of the Republican Party - in my opinion - is 4Chan and The_Donald on the most extreme end, and Joe Rogan and Ben Shapiro on the less extreme end. It’s a generation that views liberalism and “wokeness” in the same way that Abbie Hoffman viewed the World War II generation: a stifling cultural orthodoxy to be mocked, scorned, and ultimately dismantled. A whole new generation of young Trumpists are emerging from this milieu, completely in isolation of the religious right and the Bible Belt.
Don’t be making fun of the first female president of these United States.
Search your feelings. You know it to be true.
Oh god, you’re right; Which means we have to consider the possibility of that schmuck Joel Osteen.
Republican politicians don’t give a damn about what the Republican base wants. The only important thing to them is getting elected. And if their current base can’t deliver, regardless of whether it’s a narrow loss or a major defeat, they’ll just move to another group of voters.
Steve King maybe.
I highly doubt it. Joel Osteen is despised among many Christian circles. There are probably many more American Christian voters who oppose Osteen and what he stands for, than oppose Trump and what he stands for.
Well, I don’t know any current televangelist preachers except him, but it would not surprise me in the least if the GOP picked from among their ranks when seeking a new leader - some good looking, well spoken, tv savvy “man of god” who made millions preaching the prosperity gospel would seem to be an excellent Republican candidate.
A current spokesperson for geriatric products would be a good fit. Who’s pushing Depends and Viagra now?
Then the GOP would be absolutely shooting itself in the foot. Many Christians find Trump’s brand of “Christianity” more acceptable than Osteen’s. That should tell you a thing or two about Osteen.