While I agree with you with respect to GOP politicians (I think it could be said of most politicians really), to use a sport analogy, I don’t think you throw out your entire team because you lose 3-2 in the final game, when you were the champions the previous season. You could be right, but I just don’t see them turning on Trumpian politics so quickly if they think they’ll be elected by Trumpian politics. Of course, it depends on what the analysis says on why they will have lost. Turning away from Trumpian politics could be a more losing move.
The ET alien worm lodged in the skull of this POTUS will slink out with his defeat and find another to infest. The giveaway, if it attaches to lower functions: 3rd-grader speech patterns. Hmmm, maybe all ranting reactionary rimjobs have already been invaded. Drooling ichor isn’t a telltale. Look at their corneas. Do they glow? Wriggle?
Says who? (My bold) Not doubting you, I’m just curious what you base this on. RCP shows Biden, Warren, and Sanders beating Trump as of Dec 20, and Buttigieg losing (not taking into account margin of error)…
I don’t want to ignore this question, I’m just a little surprised by it. I’ll address it specifically later if you still think it’s important. Generally speaking, I’m seeing most national polls calling it another toss-up or with The Don a slight favorite because of the inherent favorability the EC gives Republicans.
If some people who do this sort for a living are right, though, there’s going to be a record turnout. I’m still seeing some prognosticators saying that means only that there will be lots more Trump voters turning out, too, but I’m betting the opposite way on that one. If there’s a record turnout, it’ll be because young voters got to the polls and buried Donald.
No need to be surprised. But here you say it’s either a toss-up or Trump is a slight favorite, not that he is favored. In any case, again, this wasn’t to say you are wrong, I was just curious as to why you said that. Because as for me, I think he will lose pretty handily assuming nothing particularly unexpected happens, but I would not be prepared to say I believe that strongly right now. It’s way too early.
The Republican electorate does not want a Christian president. They may say they do, but they don’t really. They don’t want Jesus Christ. They want the gladiators of ancient Rome, they want gods with the heads of lions and bulls, they want warrior-priests with wives and concubines. America is a Bosch triptych to these people and they want to be the beast sitting at the top of the pile of skulls. Obviously they can’t all be the beast. But they want that beast on their team.
I don’t feel this sports analogy works in politics. Politics isn’t a game where you score points and can tell yourself that you’ll do better in the next competition. It’s essentially a popularity contest; you perform and then other people decide if you were the best.
And if they didn’t pick you this time, there’s no reason to think they’re going to pick you the next time. That’s why politicians rarely try to run again for an office they lost in an election.
I don’t know that that’s going to continue to be true - I’m at the age where a lot of people I know are retiring. Lots of them are moving out of New York/New Jersey. But they aren’t moving to California or Washington or Massachusetts - they’re moving to Florida or South Carolina or Texas and they don’t suddenly start liking Trump or the current Republican party just because they move. Add in the new 18 year olds who become eligible to vote every year who are less likely to support Trump/current Republican party than the 70+ year olds who will leave the voting population, and some of those red areas may switch. Maybe not in 2020, but perhaps in 2024. Then account for the states that Trump flipped- some of them barely. Demographics ( or dissatisfaction*) may cause them to flip back to blue.
Which is not to say the Republican party can never win again - but the Republican who can win with a younger, less white electorate is not going to be anything like Trump.
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- he won Michigan by something like .3% of the votes. If my math is right, that was under 1000 votes. I’m guessing at least than many people regret voting for him.
What this does mean, though, in the short run, is that this will benefit Republicans by swelling the population and House/Electoral College clout of those states (Arizona, Texas, etc.) to the point that Republicans get more House seats and Electoral votes, but not yet turn them blue to the point that those states flip blue.
Assuming that the country remains a reasonably functioning democracy, demographics will doom Trumpism in the next decade. But the current GOP is so identified with him that I think it might actually be more likely that they simply won’t be able to survive as a major national party, because their base will refuse to nominate anyone capable of winning a general election, and even if they do manage to nominate a relative moderate, that candidate will still be tagged with the radioactive Trump brand.
Then the Democrats would split into progressive and moderate wings, and those would be the two new major parties. Of course, the Trumpists could still maintain control of certain particularly unfortunate States for a long time to come.
Possibly Dmitry Medvedev.
I think Ted is too dignified. You’re going to have to find someone a little more prone to outbursts and racist rants.
This just isn’t true, though. If you actually examine the Republican lean of Southern states, it is not going down. It’s mostly going UP.
The nightmare in gonna continue. This Axios poll has Trump Jr right behind Pence in 2024 (at least among the proposed candidates).
We have had political parties die off split and mutate historically.
I will be sad if the party dies totally, but if it happens, it happens.
I’m surprised about Pence “leading” there. He seems a polar opposite to Trump in SOME aspects (not in awfulness though so there’s that). I can barely tell if the man even has a pulse most of the time.
Also, I think some people are mischaracterizing Trump’s base as being mostly old men who are dying out - I may be wrong because I haven’t checked out reliable statistic recently but I am under the impression that there are quite A LOT of young Trumpers/conservatives just by browsing websites like Reddit/instagram/twitter. Like, not significantly less than the amount of young progressives I see online.
Normally, losing an election turns the GOP nominee into a pariah- see Romney and McCain. Should the Democrat win in 2020, Donald will concentrate full-time on staying out of prison. He won’t be speaking out on issues because he doesn’t care about them, other than white supremacy.
Where do the MAGAbots go from here? They’ll gravitate to a white supremacist candidate, if one runs. But who on the national stage is as virulently racist as DJT? Maybe Don Junior? Politico has a list of potential 2024 candidates. I’m not seeing the leader of the reich here, except for Don Junior.
What I think happens- Democrats win big in 2020, racists go back into hiding. Donald dies early in the new decade. Republicans nominate an old fashioned white dude like Cornyn or Cotton. There is no need to nominate another flaming racist, because the racist base isn’t going anywhere. It’ll be back to dog whistles for a while.
Define “lean” for me. Because the gap in statewide elections has been narrowing in formerly ruby red states like NC, GA and Tejas.
While it’s likely true that 80% of likely Republican voters are still under the age of 65, as someone on Twitter noted last week, millennial voters went Democrat by about 35 points in the last midterms. More importantly, they are defying the stereotypical historical trends by not turning towards (American) conservatism and church membership as they reach their family-rearing middle ages. The conservatives who routinely sneer at current demographical trends as a problem for the GOP are too full of shit to see that the old beliefs aren’t holding true any more.