As someone pointed out in another thread, with control of the Senate Mitch would be the turtle at the top. With him knocked off that perch now (barring something really odd) does Trump hold the mantle unopposed? Or does his causing the loss result in something else? Or does his likely legal problems once the protection of being the sitting president is removed sideline him? If sidelined who gets seen as leader?
I think it’s still Trump. This is the Trump party, and so far I see no sign of this changing.
Still Donald. He will sit on his golden toilet and if you want to win a Republican primary, you will wait in line, kiss his ring, and hand him a sack of cash. If you’re sufficiently servile, he will say something nice about you and you’ll win your primary. If your offer insults him, he will turn his thumb down and you will be exiled from the party.
That would make for a rather short exile.
I will stick my neck out and say Trump will go on a slow-burning fade. After he’s out of office he will not get default media attention for “normal” activities, and his media presence will be only due to his wacky fevered conspiracy-ridden fascist-promoting Twitter rants. He will of course want more and more attention, so there will be a positive feedback loop RE frequency and insanity of said rants. The GOP is starting to see how much of a liability this is, and there will be a concerted effort to marginalize him. Slowly, this will work.
I could be wrong.
The question which people don’t seem to address in these threads is that Trump will be the subject of dozens of lawsuits and investigations the instant he’s dragged out of the WH. Kind of hard to lead anything if you’re in court every other week, much less if he then ends up in a nice orange jumpsuit in a one-room Hilton somewhere…
I agree with this, except that I think he will be quickly banned from Twitter, hastening his fade. It will happen slowly, but it will happen.
Trump will somehow avoid any real legal consequences as he has his entire life.
Oh, he’ll get sued, he’ll settle and get some other suckers to pay it off, meanwhile tweeting about it all being part of the same fraud that stole the elections, and in 2020 all Republicans running in every race really won landslides. As evidence look at how many people were in Republican rallies compared to Democratic ones; they weren’t even close and that proves it.
And the same idiots will believe it all and worship him as their orange-bronze idol.
The actual Republican politicians who lost power though… That I’m not so sure about. We’re already seeing blowback where some of them are openly blaming him for losing the Senate, and I see the warnings about the danger of attacking the integrity of the Electoral College (which Republicans leaned on time and again to win) as an implied plea to stop following Trump’s lead. I do think we see a growing schism in the party going into 2021.
The problem though is that the schism seems to be the older, more traditional Republicans trying to pull away from Trump, while the younger ones insist that “this is the way” as if they are Trumpalorians. If that continues, Trumpism may end up growing in the party as the young blood replaces old, and even if he‘a gone his influence will linger. Like an orange cancer spreading through our political process.
My hope is that as he gets more unhinged, that ends up tarnishing his legacy enough that the movement dies out like an embarrassing fad.
Other than say in very op?
It could be Trump, but with an increasing number of open skeptics. McConnell has a track record of achieving political success when his party was in the minority, so if I were a Republican and wanted to know which guy was likelier to get the party back to crushing unions and giving billionaires tax havens, Mitch would be my man.
But what exactly is the Republican party these days? Is it even a single party, or is it about to have its own little civil war, and if so, which horses do billionaire benefactors bet their billions on?
If the GOP loses the Senate (as seems increasingly likely today), will McConnell even be able to hang on as minority leader? If someone like Cruz gets the job, I can see the new minority leader getting the nod as “leader of the GOP” as a kind of Trump surrogate.
The one that will make them the most money.
If Mitch is even alive in '26 (note discolored fingers) he’ll be 84. That’s not a disqualifying factor in politics today but it’s not a slam dunk that he’ll even run again. Of course, powerful politicians hanging on well past their expiration date (see: Feinstein) is a sad facet of American government.
Taking a wild guess, some Trump sycophant will probably replace him but if the base is still running things and clamoring for more Trumpism, their efforts to seize power and non-govern again will be futile. Yeah, Cruz is a possibility, if he can fend off Beto again in '24. Not a given.
My thought is that if the Republican party wants to save itself, it would be wise to step back from the ledge overlooking Crazy Canyon. They can go back to being a party that has some crossover appeal, get some things done for the middle class while claiming credit for it, and then go back in four years to lionizing the job creators and campaigning on how important it is for America to be an oligarchy in which we should all be inspired to chase hopeless dreams of being uber-wealthy.
Mitch will keep his job as Republican leader in the Senate – if he wants it. I could see him deciding to step down of his own accord, but there’s not a chance in hell that Ted Cruz would be elected to replace him. Generally, your colleagues need to like you – or at least be able to stand you – if they’re going to make you their leader.
For any civil matter he himself won’t need to be in court. That’s what ottorneys and workers are for. if he’s a criminal defendant, then yes, he’ll be in court during the trial. But not during the endless preliminary hearings, arguments for delay and change of venue, etc.
IMO he can be involved in 100 simultaneous court cases without spending any thought or physical presence on any of them. Or at least he can do all that as long as his money holds out.
Count me as another who thinks this is the right analysis. With the latest GA elections he carries even more baggage of being a loser. I’m hoping some of this rubs off on pro-Trumpers like Cruz and reps like Marjorie Greene.
Over all I don’t think anyone will be the undisputed leader for the next year or two. Trump will have the most influence for a little while but as someone pointed out once he loses Twitter his influence will start to wane. I was once concerned he’d start up a TV show but he’s such a rambling mess that I’m confident he’ll just hurt himself.
I wonder if after losing Twitter he switches to Parler?
If he does, will his insanity still make news?
I’m sure he will but Parler doesn’t have the reach of twitter and I expect it to eventually implode.
That’s why I was questioning; he’ll still have an audience of sycophants but hopefully we won’t hear about it.
Unless, maybe, it’s something really eyebrow-raising even from him. So maybe he’ll have to up the ante.