I predict a repeat of Goldwater '64, with much of the same reasons (Republicans too far to the right).
In the 2012 election there were, in very round figures, 60 million uneducated white Americans who were eligible but did not vote.
If everyone votes exactly as they did in 2012, except that one-fifth of the abstaining uneducated whites turn up and vote for Trump then, although the Democrats retain PA and VA, the GOP sweeps the other swing states and wins the election with several electoral votes to spare. Cite.
That’s a very big IF, and is very unlikely. But, even if Hillary does win the election, I predict that a clear majority of whites, even with college graduates included, will cast their votes for Trump! :eek:
Excuse me. Having registered as a Dem in 1980 and voted for Reagan in 1984, I do still exist and I’m sure Hell not a Republican.
Hillary doesn’t have to win deep red states, she has to win purple ones. And that’s where organization, GOTV, and financial wherewithal matters… not to mention that “get every vote that Romney got…” factor, which Trump failing at.
There’s always going to be a “chance” for Trump, thats how Monte carlo simulations work.
It is going to be Clinton. It was always going to be Clinton.
My prediction was Clinton, because I believe in experts who crunch numbers, and they think Clinton has a better chance.
But the ability of Clinton opponents, whether Putin-inspired or otherwise, to strategically leak embarassing emails is, for this Clinton supporter, worrysome. I hesitate to write this because it sounds paranoid, but I think Putin really is asking his staff whether they can do anything to get Trump elected. What they are telling him when he asks that is the mystery.
Cite on that “did not vote” line? Your cite says that is the number of UW voters, not the number of UW voters that didn’t vote.
I’ve said before that I can imagine it becoming a single-issue sound-bite: I figure that, at the debate, Trump will get asked about Syrian refugees; and I figure he’ll forcefully say he wants to keep them out; and I figure that Hillary Clinton will get asked about them; and I figure she’ll declare that we should take far, far more of them.
And I figure that, if a Syrian refugee then shouts ALLAHU AKBAR while killing rather a lot of innocent Americans, then the attack ads will deluge, because no member of the GOP will appear in public without speechifying about it, sure as the clip of What She Said and What Then Happened will keep running even after he gets elected president.
My dad used to say that 90% of elections consisted of a choice between two crooks, two idiots, or one of each.
I think Clinton will win but would not be surprised if it goes the other way. We still got a ways to go before election day. Extremists benefit from the actions of other extremists and if some wacko pulls another Orlando, that could be the ball game.
I’m sure there are a few Reagan Democrats left, but not nearly enough to have any impact on the election. They are not a force the way some pundits like to say they are.
I can’t click on either of those buttons. One, I don’t really know. Two, I was going to say Johnson. Partly to be contrary, partly because he a) is a former governor and b) seems to have avoided annoying a broad swath of America personally.
Fun year.
I lean towards the South Park take on many elections but I have to admit that I think your dad was pretty smart.
I hate to admit it, but Trump is going to win. He will win because his demographics get out and vote, whereas Hillary’s demographics will sit at home.
Oh, I can see the teeth gnashing already, but it’s true. It’s like Brexit.
Trump will be your next president, and then the face palms begin. :smack::smack::smack:
Good gravy on fries, NO! I feel the total opposite on this. A lot of Hillary supporters didn’t vote primary, and fence sitters won’t fall on the Trumpy Wumpy side as long as they have at least one savings account.
Crap, I think we should debate Flyers/Leafs hockey instead. Way more fucking fun than these two. Just think-- if either of us was at a hockey game with the Oompa-Loompa or the Banshee of Bill, we’d have to explain icing to them. (shudders) 
A lying probable criminal who is also a narcissist buffoon, or a lying corrupt influence peddler and possible criminal with a ridiculously inflated ego.
Really, they’re variations on a theme.
Clinton, by more than predicted.
- He has no organisation for GOTV “get out the vote”, while Clinton has a huge team for this. Trump has stated he is relying on state party organisations for this, not something they are used to doing.
- Trump seems to think he can somehow win safe Blue seats, he’s talked about trying to win California and New York. Trump doesn’t want to be spending weeks and weeks in Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, etc etc he regards them as irrelevant backwaters. Unless the party machinery can convince him to change his mind the only swing state he seems interested in is Florida. Otherwise he’s going to waste time campaigning in “glamorous” states where he has no hope.
- Kasich is Governor of Ohio, and has no interest in helping Trump with the ground game in Ohio. Without winning Ohio he has no hope.
- Trump has not achieved party unity. Kasich, Cruz, Romney and the Bushes have all refused to endorse him. Sanders has endorsed Clinton and they will also have Obama and Bill Clinton campaigning for them and will be focusing on the correct swing states.
#2 makes sense if you think of him as trying to advance his (highly dubious) brand. Where better to campaign than CA or NY for that, especially given all the free publicity he gets?
Are you serious? Please tell us you’re pulling our leg.
Hillary. I’ll even show you the map. Even if I give Trump MO, AZ, and UT it’s still a 359-179 blowout. There simply aren’t enough uneducated angry white male sexist racists out there to win for Trump.
Man, I hope you are right. But I can easily imagine sitting around biting my nails as we wait to see which way VA, OH, FLA, etc will flip…
Yeah, there are no good precise precedents for this shitstorm, but Gore lost his home state of Tenn, and Kerry couldn’t beat the fucking chimp. Dems have a solid track record for seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. They have to take this as a urgent GOTV EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY DAY from now to Nov, not only to elect Hillary, but hopefully to extend her coattails, and expose the hollowness of the GOP.