Clinton is not my preferred candidate (Bernie was), but I can’t see how she can avoid being elected right now.
Nate Silver (the statistician) is still predicting 66% Clinton so I feel pretty safe with my choice, even though it is a bit early to call the election. He did call the 2012 election exactly, though, so I am fairly confident.
Bob
66% is MUCH lower probability than you seem to think it is. If I have three cartons of milk in the fridge, and I tell you that one is spoiled and will give you a horrendous disease if you drink it, would you grab a carton and random and take a big ol’ gulp?
I wouldn’t take that dare with 5 cartons and 80%. What’s your point?
Urban1a, presumably a Clinton supporter (in the sense that he/she prefers that Trump lose), apparently was comforted by Nate Silver’s current model results – that, running his simulation thousands of times with today’s data, Trump wins “only” 33% of the time.
Thought it would be appropriate to resurrect this zombie and point out that 83% of Dopers (including me) did not think Trump would prevail.
Pretty astonishing that so many of us were so wrong.
mmm
Yes, wrong in judging the electorate: wrong in judging the apathy of the hordes who never bothered to vote, and the [lack of] intelligence of many of those who did.
But not wrong in judging the consequences of the choices. Regardless of how one judges the electorate, the principle of “I’m so fed up with government that I’m going to vote for a crazy loose cannon and hope for the best” only works once: if the result is an unmitigated disaster, you’re not likely to do it again. I suspect that in the next presidential election the pendulum will swing to the other side with such unprecedented momentum that sane, seasoned politicians who actually know things will find themselves much in demand.
Damn, I was opening this so I could vote for Franken.
Even having 83% think Trump wouldn’t win is better than many predictions.
I’m still not convinced those weren’t his chances. I repeatedly argued 1 in 5 once I learned of the tendency of pollsters to overshoot 3% one way or the other.
:: sigh ::
I’d forgotten this thread. And I keep seeing people with faded “Clinton/Kaine” signs still up in their yards. I wish they’d take 'em down; my heart sinks a little every time I see one. Ah, what might have been…!
Yes!
Franken-Duckworth 2020!
At least you know Al would put his head down and work his ass off.
We’re not alone. Even the Trump campaign thought Clinton would win until the votes started coming in.
I interpreted the poll as a choice for President in 2020. Of the two choices, Trump has the better chance. He will almost certainly run - Hillary will almost certainly not.
Of course, I will probably be just as right about this as I would have been, had I voted in the poll in 2016.
Regards,
Shodan
The next president, after Mr. Trump wins a second term, will very probably be Mike Pence.
Or the next president will very probably be Mike Pence.
I didn’t vote in the poll, but if I had I’d have been wrong as well. I thought Clinton would win and win pretty big. Pretty much in line with BobLibDem’s post above, when I should have been paying more attention to RickJay who was clearly thinking more rationally about this in this thread. :o
In a couple of months…
That’s the first name that came to my mind too, before I opened the thread.
Yeah, no and no.
I think the only chance Pence has of becoming president is via the death, resignation or impeachment of the asshole in chief. But I’m one of the 176 poor prognosticators from the original poll.