Who will be Trump's VP? [plus] Trump's Vice-President choice?

[lieu]

@Happy_Lendervedder

I’ll be curious to see if Trump can play nice with Pence for the duration. I feel like Trump’s the kind of guy who doesn’t take too kindly to disagreement from his underlings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any behind-the-scenes disagreements sneak out into the public at some point, just as a sign of who’s boss.

Quite. Goaled, Trump n’ Pence demure? Unlikely.

[Johnny_Ace]

@septimus

I read that Trump is botching his campaign horrendously; spending no money; and now bungling the VP pick and announcement.

Yet the latest Rasmussen Poll has Trump ahead of Hillary 44-37 among likely voters. Predictwise gives the GOP a 30% chance to occupy the Oval Office next January.

What gives? If Trump were running a “smart” campaign would he now be ahead in a landslide? Or is it his very stupidity which endears him to many voters?

Funny how, going back to mid-May, there have been only three polls out of around 35 in which Trump led Clinton, and every one of them is Rasmussen.

[asahi]

@CarnalK

That Rasmussen poll is quite an outlier so I think it mainly means they’re just off. Bu the fact that the candidates are about tied is pretty amazing given the spending and nuttiness gap.

Looking at the RCP averages, excluding outliers and polls that aren’t that established, I would estimate that Clinton still probably holds a 2-3 percentage point advantage nationally. But the bad news for Clinton is that she’s clearly slipping. There’s probably not enough good data to make predictions on individual states and there won’t be until early September.

She is probably capable of regaining momentum, but I think predictions of a massive blowout are increasingly unlikely. Trump is and will continue to be a flawed candidate with 40-45 percent of the country steadfastly against him. But Clinton won’t be able to pull away. I still think she’s the odds-on favorite, but it’ll be an uncomfortably close race.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

Reports of how the chaotic VP selection were completely bungled from within the campaign are emerging.

But the chaos surrounding Trump’s vice presidential choice was more intense, and the latest evidence of the campaign’s persistent inability to get on the same page with its candidate. Sources described Trump, who had high hopes for a picturesque rollout, stewing in Trump Tower on Friday morning while aides pointed fingers over who to blame for the breakdown…

Thursday began with a series of reports, first from Roll Call and then the Indianapolis Star, indicating, based on anonymous sources, that Trump chose Pence. In response, campaign officials insisted Trump had made no decision. As the day went on, NBC News reported that there were lingering debates between Trump’s family members, who favored someone like Newt Gingrich with whom they had more familiarity, and Trump’s top adviser Manafort, who was urging Pence…

As NBC News reported, Trump, in private, was outraged over early leaks indicating he’d chosen Pence. Surprisingly, Trump on Thursday had been relatively alone even as he faced his biggest campaign choice to date: He was in California on a fundraising trip, away from his immediate family and from Manafort, the primary voices in his decision-making process.

“This pick came when no one was in the same place,” a source within the campaign told NBC News…

Trump’s irritation, the odd timing of his response to the Nice attacks followed by two phone interviews to Fox and his refusal to confirm whether he had made a final choice, underscored serious doubts until the last moment about Pence. Trump even made calls as late as midnight, per NBC’s reporting, asking confidants whether it would be possible to backtrack on the pick in favor of someone else. Sources familiar with the calls said he felt “backed into a corner” by competing concerns over his individual choices.

Heck of an organization you’re running there, Trumpy.

[ElvisL1ves]

The polls you’re looking at came during or right after Comey’s statements about Emailgate. Greg Sargent explains:

Beyond the fact that Clinton still holds a lead after getting hit by sustained awful coverage, note that Trump has not hit 43 percent since last winter, and has not hit 42 percent since the spring.
…
Mark Murray and the First Read Crew … concluded … ‘So you could view these battleground numbers as a floor for Clinton, while Trump is still unable to break 40% in many of these states’.

[elucidator]

July, August, September, October, and then, finally… I’ll never make it. Already got a twitch in my eyelid. Maybe meditation. Medication. Heroin and Zen.

[BigAppleBucky]

Trump VP announcement recap: :smack:

1. Before reaching a final decision, leak the decision to outlets that offer you nothing.
2. Deny the decision.
3. Announce event to announce decision
4. Cancel event over foreign tragedy
5. Hold other events
6. Awkward discussions with losing VP finalists.
7. Deny to them that you’ve reached a final decision.
8. Fly your VP selection to you.
9. Have second thoughts.
10. Ask aides if you can change your mind.
11. Despite foreign tragedy, announce VP pick anyway. On Twitter.
12. Don’t have anything ready.
13. Release bizarre, sexual logo that overshadows your VP announcement.
14. Don’t fundraise.
15. Have aides leak to CNN that you asked if you could back out of VP decision last night.
16. Ah.

From here

[dalej42]

Oh, and then scrub the ridiculous logo within 24 hours

Trump-Pence Logo Completely Scrubbed from Campaign Website

[elucidator]

Georgie Pillowbiter!

[septimus]

Mention of one specific poll diverted attention from the intended meaning of my post.

We can already predict, roughly, what the outcome of November’s election will be:
[ul][li] 43% of eligible voters do not vote. Thus,we can say that Did Not Vote will win the election as it has for every Presidential election in the modern era.[/li]LBJ in 1964 came closest to winning, with 36% to Did Not’s 38%.
[li] 4% will vote for Johnson, Stein or another.[/li][li] 27% or 26% will vote for Hillary.[/li][li] 26% or 27% will vote for Donald.[/li][/ul]
If Donald gets 26% of eligible voters, headlines will be “America comes to its senses, rejects the bombastic oaf. World stock markets soar!”
If Donald gets 27%, headlines will be “World in shock. China and Mexico prepare to sign anti-U.S. trade pact. Daesh fighters dancing in the streets.”

Is 27% so very different a number from 26%? Or are we witnessing a systemic failure, and just wondering what flavor topping will appear on our dessert?

[DerekMichaels00]

never seen a guy so happy to be second fiddle like Pence; Trump rambles on for 3/4 hours, jokes “back to Mike Pence,” keeps going, and Pence gets on their, parrots the Trump motto, says a few things, and barely hangs out with Trump on stages after.

Oh, the new Trump/Pence logo…and the picture too

[MrDibble]

@dalej42

Oh, and then scrub the ridiculous logo within 24 hours
Trump-Pence Logo Completely Scrubbed from Campaign Website

Pity, I would have hoped it would still be good for a while.

Best parody so far: Planned Parenthood.

[ElvisL1ves]

Trump says he picked Pence (not that there was much to pick from after all sane and non-desperate Republicans backed out) because he wants to win Indiana.

1. No Republican should have to worry about that, and
2. It won’t work - AIUI from relatives there, they’re deliriously happy to be rid of the bastard.

[DSeid]

@coremelt

Ok but why were the evangelicals supporting him before he picked Pence? it’s pretty clear he’s not one of them and I would have thought his past public declaration of being pro-choice would have made him unpalatable?

(confused non US observer)

The best explanation is here.

… People who score high in authoritarianism, when they feel threatened, look for strong leaders who promise to take whatever action necessary to protect them from outsiders and prevent the changes they fear.

So MacWilliams naturally wondered if authoritarianism might correlate with support for Trump. …

<snip>

… It’s a story of polarization that increased over time.

They trace the trend to the 1960s, when the Republican Party shifted electoral strategies to try to win disaffected Southern Democrats, in part by speaking to fears of changing social norms — for example, the racial hierarchies upset by civil rights. The GOP also embraced a “law and order” platform with a heavily racial appeal to white voters who were concerned about race riots.

This positioned the GOP as the party of traditional values and social structures — a role that it has maintained ever since. That promise to stave off social change and, if necessary, to impose order happened to speak powerfully to voters with authoritarian inclinations.

Democrats, by contrast, have positioned themselves as the party of civil rights, equality, and social progress — in other words, as the party of social change, a position that not only fails to attract but actively repels change-averse authoritarians.

Over the next several decades, Hetherington explained to me, this led authoritarians to naturally “sort” themselves into the Republican Party.

That matters, because as more authoritarians sort themselves into the GOP, they have more influence over its policies and candidates …

Most concisely some voters are authoritarian especially when perceiving threat (economic or crime or vague fear of terrorism). These voters find the rules and moral certainty, the demonization of unbelievers, of religious conservatism to be attractive, and are thus often members of the group “evangelicals” … but the fundamental item is not the religious belief but the authoritarian tendency. They are also prime base for an authoritarian leader sans the religiosity. They are ready to accept, practiced at accepting, revealed truths that conflict with the evidence, understanding that the evidence against the revealed truth is only there to test their faith. Word of god or word of a fascist leader seriously makes little difference when the fundamental issue is authoritarianism.

[DSeid]

@asahi

Looking at the RCP averages, excluding outliers and polls that aren’t that established, I would estimate that Clinton still probably holds a 2-3 percentage point advantage nationally. But the bad news for Clinton is that she’s clearly slipping. There’s probably not enough good data to make predictions on individual states and there won’t be until early September.

She is probably capable of regaining momentum, but I think predictions of a massive blowout are increasingly unlikely. Trump is and will continue to be a flawed candidate with 40-45 percent of the country steadfastly against him. But Clinton won’t be able to pull away. I still think she’s the odds-on favorite, but it’ll be an uncomfortably close race.

@ElvisL1ves

The polls you’re looking at came during or right after Comey’s statements about Emailgate. Greg Sargent explains:

Yes she probably has slipped from +5 or so to +2 to 3. And yes just like the Trump down 7 was in face of a very bad run of campaign for him and likely was close to his floor until the undecideds decide (with actual results depending just as much on whose voters actually vote) this likely represents pretty close to her floor - with maybe a bit more post GOP convention bump for Trump if they do actually run a good show.

So far nothing inconsistent with the likelihood of the longterm trendline being Clinton +5ish but +/- 4ish depending on the news cycle.

How will undecideds break? Will white non-college educated males turnout in higher percentages than usual? Will instead white women, especially college educated ones, go over to the Democratic side? These are going to be the critical questions and slavish attention to the noisy background and volatility informs naught on them.

[Derleth]

@DerekMichaels00

never seen a guy so happy to be second fiddle like Pence; Trump rambles on for 3/4 hours, jokes “back to Mike Pence,” keeps going, and Pence gets on their, parrots the Trump motto, says a few things, and barely hangs out with Trump on stages after.

Oh, the new Trump/Pence logo…and the picture too

Here’s a direct link: https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/vphome/tp_newer_logo.png

Note the filename: tp_newer_logo.png. Let’s make an educated guess, and…

Bingo: https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/vphome/tp_logo.png

There’s the old logo. Filename: tp_logo.png.

I don’t know. It’s just sloppy as far as I’m concerned. There’s absolutely no technical reason to do that, it just adds work.

[elucidator]

Be pretty impressive if they were running for middle school class President. Did somebody cash a check for that design work? Stop, thief!

[Elendil_s_Heir]

I’m sure the Donald stiffed the logo designer, just as he has so many other contractors and employees in the past.

[wolfpup]

@Elendil_s_Heir

I’m sure the Donald stiffed the logo designer, just as he has so many other contractors and employees in the past.

I love how absolutely everything The Donald does just exudes dishonesty and incompetence. What a perfect choice for President of the United States!

[Randolph]

I just have to give pub(l)ic props to FARK’s new CNN logo.