I’ve been pondering the ramifications of what would happen if Trump resigns and came up with an interesting dilemma. Here are the two options to choose from.
Trump serves out his current term and loses in 2020 to whoever wins the Democratic nomination.
Trump resigns within the next year and Pence serves out the rest of this term. Pence then runs in 2020 and wins.
Obviously these are not the only scenarios available, but let’s say somehow you knew that these two options were the only ones that would occur. Which would you choose? This isn’t a thread about how likely either possibility is, but more about what you think would be worse or better for the country. If you are a liberal do you think we would we be worse off with 3 + more years of Trump or 7+ more years of Pence? If you are a conservative / Trump supporter do you think we would we be better off with a little more Trump or a lot more Pence?
My opinion is that at the rate Trump is going he won’t get much, if any, meaningful legislation sent to him to sign. I think Kennedy and the liberal justices are probably less likely to retire under Trump. Therefore I would rather have Trump finish out his term rather than having a likely more effective Pence that would probably get more done.
I voted Pence for 2 terms but I’m Canadian so my perspective is different. I don’t think Pence can cause as much damage to Canada and the world as Trump. To try to take a US perspective, I would still say the same answer. Two terms of Pence might be bad, but one term of Trump is definitely very bad. Not necessarily in terms of what policies and legislation he may or may not pass but the damage it does to your political system and institutions.
At first, I would’ve said Pence. But the last 7 months have shown me that Trump is being restrained pretty well by his own cabinet, congress, the states and the courts. So I’m hoping he can’t do severe damage so I guess I’ll stick with Trump.
I’m with BeepKillBeep. Well, I’m not Canadian, but I think Pence will f*** up the nation and world less than Trump would. I don’t trust the administration to keep Trump’s bad traits restrained long term.
What was if that O’Rourke said, about being wrong within normal parameters?
The president has tremendous potential for screwing things up, and I like the odds a lot better of Pence playing Not To Lose than I do of Trump doing God Only Knows.
If you had asked me last January, I’d have said Pence without hesitation. The more time passes, though, the more my answer has shifted towards Trump, and it’s likely to continue shifting towards Trump.
With 8 years of Pence, there’s a high probability that he’ll do a small amount of damage. With 4 years of Trump, there’s a low probability that he’ll do a very large amount of damage. The damage that Trump might do is far worse than the damage that Pence might do, but it’s enough worse that it’s not worth the risk. So far, however, Trump’s utter incompetence has been enough to prevent him from doing any of the damage he’s tried to do, and the damage he’s capable of, he so far hasn’t tried. And the longer he goes without that happening, the lower the chances that it’ll happen in the shorter time left.
But there’s still enough time left that I still really don’t like the expected value with Trump.
I’d rather have congress have a Eureka moment and dump Trump now, even if it means taking chances with another Pence term. And I’m polar opposite of Pence on pretty much everything. Trump is dangerous.
I really, really, REALLY want Trump’s bigly hands off the nuclear button – but I cling to the hope that Mattis, Kelly, and the Joint Chiefs will stave off the worst consequences of Trump’s rash bellicosity, while his own incompetence will prevent him from accomplishing a lot of the harm he wants to do; while seven-plus years of Pence leading an effective Republican dismantling of the country and rebuilding into a theocracy scares me more in the long-term perspective.
Actually, being from Indiana, Pence is also a devil I know. I didn’t like him as governor and I wouldn’t like him as president, but again, I think there will be less damage done by Pence than by Trump.
Pence is also a real politician, acquainted with concepts like tact, diplomacy, and compromise. Again, I don’t like him and on many, many issues we’re in totally different camps but I survived four years with him as governor.
The notion that Trump can’t cause “real lasting damage” is a foolish one. Of course he can. And if he does, it will probably start with an intemperate Twitter comment.
I don’t like Pence on many social issues but I think the president’s role on that is always overstated. Society will move in a certain direction with or without the president. The president can do real, immediate and lasting damage during an international crisis like what is happening in North Korea. Pence is an adult who can be trusted to use tact when needed not an immature little boy who has to say the first thing that comes to mind. I would pick 8 years of Pence over a nuclear war any day.
In your scenerio we would only get 7 years of Pence. If Trump serves more than two years of his term Pence can serve 2 full terms plus what was left on Trump’s. Less than 2 years he can only serve one full term.
Actually I think Trump has already caused real lasting damage. A lot of people in other countries now think the whole United States is fucking nuts. It’s going to take more than tact and diplomacy to change that opinion, and I’m not sure we can ever totally achieve respect in the world again.
I agree with this. Trump’s incompetence is his best quality.
It was Nietzsche who wrote “What does not kill me makes me stronger;” Germany and Japan have had sane governance since their flings with insanity. I’m rooting for Trump to do enough harm that America will wake up and say “Never again!” Yes, much of the damage will be permanent, but the fetid right-wingers Pence and Ryan would do grave permanent damage as well.
I’m surprised no one has brought up SCOTUS nominations. Eight years of Trump/Pence would take the court considerably to “the right”, or if you prefer, considerably in the John Roberts direction. I’m OK with that myself, but I suspect many folks here would not be.
Personally, though, I want Trump out and gone. He’s a real danger on foreign policy, and that’s where the president can act almost unrestrained. But… it also depends on which party is controlling Congress. With the Democrats in control, I’m much less concerned about a Republican in the WH. If we have GOP control of the presidency and Congress, that might make me re-think my position, and go for 3 1/2 more years of Trump. Without knowing that, I’ll take a gamble on the House at least flipping and get Trump the hell out of public office once and for all.
Also, I’d like to think that the scenario I picked, we also know that Trump won’t try to run again in the future. He’ll almost certainly be too old, but let’s not take any chances.
Actually, on thinking about this more… How do we get into a situation where Pence serves out the remainder of Trump’s term, and then also gets re-elected? The only way Trump can get impeached and kicked out is if a significant number of Republicans go against him, and a Republican party that fractured can’t possibly get their president re-elected. Likewise, if he’s ousted by his cabinet. And the only way he’d resign would be if there were immediate threat of impeachment or being found incompetent, which means we still have the fractured party.
The only way that Pence takes over without the Republicans being bloodied into irrelevance is if Trump dies and is viewed as a martyr, causing a lot of people to embrace his “policies” (such as they are). And I’m not sure there’s much practical difference between Trump acting crazy because he is crazy, or Pence acting crazy in a tribute to Trump.