Who win$: Potter, AOTC, or LOTR?

Who do you think will run away with the biggest box office?

Harry Potter, Attack of the Clones, Fellowship of the Rings?

Each has their advantages and disadvantages, but what do you think?

My money is on AOTC. The Star Wars phenomenon is just too huge. Even though TPM had a rather tepid fan reaction, it still finished #3 in US movie history.

LOTR is the one I’m most looking forward to, but I can’t see it beating Potter or AOTC.

Good thread.

I also will pick Attack of the Clones. First, Harry Potter is 2 1/2 hours long so many parents might not want to take their kids twice. Second, Fellowship of the Ring is 2 3/4 hours long, so many people will not be interested. Fellowship of the Rings may only(heh) make 200 million dollars, since it may appear dull to people unfamiliar with the novel it is part of.

Attack of the Clones is a good movie. I have read a scriptment of it and am confidant it is better than Phantom Menace, if not perfect. It has so much action that I think people will be back to see it several times. It’s a action driven movie, actually. AND, it’s only 2 hrs long.

I vote for Harry Potter. As we’ve seen in the past (Titanic) long running time doesn’t have to kill a movie. It has a very wide audience- everyone from little kidlets to college proffesors dig Harry Potter. Literally everyone I know likes Harry Potter. I can also see a high repeat viewing potential. You see it once with your friends, once with your little sister, once with a date…I know the buzz at my school (admitly filled with film people) is huge. Today we all talked about when we are going to see HP and how awesome we think it will be.

AOTC is going to have a lot to recover from the Phantom Menace fiasco. People have completely lost faith in George Lucus- for a good reason. It seems like the magic of Star Wars is only possible to create in the late 70s, early 80s. I also see trouble with it courting a female fan base.

As for LOTR, the audience is too specialized. Althought the book is very popular, especially among geekier circles, a lot of people flat out didn’t like it. I know I couldn’t get in to it, and I doubt I could get into a loooong movie about it. I can’t seet this being a date movie, a take-your-kids movie, a teen hit movie or anything else. It just doesn’t have the breadthe of appeal that other movies have.

Attack of the Clones – the Star Wars fandom outnumbers the other two, easily.

It depends on the movies, don’t you think? If AOTC is as disappointing as The Phantom Menace and HP comes close to attracting the following that the book has, then Harry may win.

LOTR could really blow both of them away, but it will have to be a very good movie by itself. I don’t believe it has the fan base the other two movies start out with.

Harry Potter. Growing fan base, multigenerational appeal, will be playing the two biggest family moviegoing weekends of the year (look at how well the not-so-hot GRINCH did on that), massive media hype outside the Internet. Yes, there’s a question of whether it will pick up teenagers, but honestly the same applies to AOTC. Star Wars’s rep amongst the younger set is not what it used to be. I don’t think Episode I created a whole new generation of fans.

LOTR will “only” make 150-300 mill, which will no doubt lead some misguided souls to proclaim it a failure. I hearby condemn those souls to watch THE GRINCH and listen to Britney Spears albums for all eternity.

Someone should start a pool on this. Here are my predictions:

LOTR = $180 million
SWEP2 = $230 million
HPATSS = $360 million


If kids can tolerate the 800-page book, they will sit through, perhaps many times, the lengthy Harry Potter movie.

Eeeks, hereby declare. I hereby declare myself unfit to spell.

I am slobbering the most over LOTR, have been for many months. That being said I think it will come in third. Although this is also the one that I have the least knowledge about how the public will take to it. Plus I think it will have the most competition.

Harry Potter I think will come in second. I think it’s too long. Books you can put down, plus the books are probably better. I’m also lukewarm about how American kids will take to English accents for their heroes in the movies. I think in a week or so the merchandising of this franchise will begin to get to people. (P.S. in my opinion they should have gone for a new story made especially for the movie form with proper background for people who haven’t read the book.)

I can’t see how the AOTC could lose this one unless they try to over advertise and over merchandise this one too. If they market this flim wisely it could do huge business.

I think LOTR will actually be the best movie of the three, in terms of technical and aesthetic merit, but AOTC will walk away with the revenue prize. Don’t underestimate the Star Wars phenomenon. Yeah, TPM sucked, but I doubt this had the damaging effect on the Star Wars industry that it should have had. When AOTC opens, it will do very, very well.

Honestly I think they’re all going to do better than expected. I have a feeling LOTR is going to be a big sleeper and possibly walk away with more than the other two. Regardless, I think they’re all going to make 380+

I would vote for Star Wars Episode II, except for one thing. “Attack of the Clones” is the stupidest title imaginable for a Star Wars movie! Sheesh! It sounds like a bad 1950’s or 60’s B-movie, and not in a good way. It’s even cheesier than a title like “The Phantom Menace.”

That said, I’m voting for Shallow Hal to clean up at the box office. :wink:

Yikes!!! Perhaps they will all make 380+ internationaly and domesticaly combined, but that’d be amazing to see all three make it. Star Wars- probably. Harry Potter- maybe. LOTR- not likely.

Well, The Fellowship of the Rings certainly deserves it, from what I’ve seen, but I think it’ll be Harry Potter. Thousands of fanboys will see LotR many times each. Thousands of fanboys will see Star Wars many times each. But it takes more than fanboys to make a movie a success. Everyone who will see the other two movies will see Harry Potter, and many, many people who won’t see the other two will also see it.

Money maker?
Remember that Potter is now a franchise.
There is a reason that Hogwarts comes off in the film as almost a fun park.
Warner Brothers has a future staked out here, folks.

Filming on Potter 2 starts Monday.
Filming on LOTR is over. If the first installment makes it they’ll start editing part two.

I think Harry Potter probably will gross the most for reasons others have said- broader fan base. Of the three I think it’s the one I’d most likely see. Although I might allow myself to be talked into seeing Lord of the Rings, despite hating Tolkien because there’s no way the movie could be as boring as the books. As for AOTC…I did take my brother to the midnight showing of the Phantom Menace, but he’s old enough to drive now, so he can go his damn self- maybe I’ll watch it when it comes out on video :slight_smile:

I’m going to be absolutely shocked if “Attack of the Clones” is anywhere NEAR “Harry Potter And The Philosopher’s Stone” in box office receipts. The Potter film is showing in HALF the friggin’ screens around here. The advance buzz is unbelievable. Since AOTC will probably suck horribly, it’s not going to get the repeat business, either.

I think you 25-40 Star Wars fans are wayyyyy overestimating its chances. :slight_smile:

I’m going to go out on a limb here; Harry Potter will do almost as much business as Star Wars Episode 2 and Fellowship of the Ring COMBINED.

I’d have to agree with RickJay here, Harry Potter in a landslide. There is just such a diverse fan base both here and across the world I don’t see either of the movies even coming close.

I’ve got to go Harry Potter here. First, the broad fan base and the hype. Second, I saw a story on our (Aust) news saying Harry Potter has beaten TPM for money taken in the first week of release. I think TPM did a lot of damage to the Star Wars fanbase (I’m not going to bother seeing AotC unless I see some stupendously good reviews), so IMHO, HP’s got the edge.

LotR will be a bit of a sleeper, taking good money but not breaking box office records.