I googled 2024 election odds, and of the first 6 sites that came up, 4 gave Trump the best chance and 2 gave Biden the best chance.
For my part, I can’t wrap my head around a second (or final) Trump term, so I don’t even know how to guess. I’m kind of assuming Biden will win, but my brain acknowledges how many indicators say it will more likely be Trump.
I think we’re a pretty hateful and ugly country, not especially democratic, and that says Trump.
Good Choice. I hope so too. Maybe we could be a little better prepared and send them some backup.
I have no prediction. Just a deeply sincere hope that it will not be a republican of any sort.
I feel the same way.
So many smart people think Biden has the edge over Trump. And not just here.
But I look at the national general election polling averages at RealClearPolitics, and month after month, for at least the last year, Biden never gets enough ahead to make up for the GOP electoral college advantage of 3 percent or so. And I never meet someone who doesn’t know how they will vote.
Then there’s the unknown of what happens if Trump is convicted. Logically, it’s not unknown, because a jury found him to have sexually penetrated a woman in a Fifth Avenue dressing room, and polling averages remained the same. But so many smart people think a criminal trial verdict, on a charge like conspiracy to submit false statements, will be have a different effect on the electorate than when a civil jury essentially said he’s a rapist. Can the smart people be all wrong?
The other known unknown – DJT going to jail. When I was growing up, someone being a jailbird was a shocker. But now, in worlds-high-incarceration-rate USA, where as many of us have criminal conviction records as college diplomas, and most people have someone in their family who has been imprisoned, logic tells me it probably won’t will matter.
Therefore, my brain says Trump wins it all, while feeling I must be a fool for saying it.
I think Trump has no chance. He got outvoted in 2016 and 2020. He certainly hasn’t picked up any swing voters since 2020. And he’s going to spend a good portion of 2024 on trial.
Sure the MAGA crowd still believes their Beloved Leader. But how far outside of that base does Trump reach? And Trump can’t get elected with just his base. He won’t get close enough for the Republican party to declare him the winner - assuming they want to.
This has been explained several times here. The GOP knows who they will vote for. But the Progressives and the Independents are hoping for a younger, non-white non–male maybe candidate, who will be “just perfect”. There is no such person, but they are allowed their fantasies. But in the end, they will vote for Biden over trump. Mind you, it wont be easy, and it is not the time to think iot is a sure thing.
Right.
I agree. He has strong support in half of the GOP voters and much less than half among independents. The anti-Trump vote will be strong if he is a candidate. Biden wins easily if nothing happens between next years election and now, which is highly unlikely. All sorts of things can send this race running wildly in different unpredictable ways, but following along the known course it will be Biden and there’s not much that will send many voters toward Trump.
Well, it is likely that trump will be convicted. It is possible that trumps health will fail, it is also possible the same for Biden, but less likely.
But yeah, other than Biden dying and Harris being the candidate, it looks good but by no means a cinch for the Dems.
Biden will, obviously, will win a landslide.
That being said, Democrats are really wasting the chance to get in a real progressive candidate.
Biden has the edge but it will probably be another close election which is decided by 1-2% of voters in 2-3 states. Right now the RCP polling average is 45-44 for Trump. Trump will face a lot of legal headwind in 2024 and while it hasn’t hurt him much till now one would think that the drip drip of endless legal woes will convince at least 1-2% of voters to rethink and that’s all Biden needs. Inflation, which has been Biden’s big problem, is coming down and while it hasn’t really helped his numbers , another years of low inflation along with low unemployment should help him eventually. One worry for him is that median real household income is still down from 2019 and it’s not clear that will change before the election.
I also think that Biden will run a better general election on the whole though he is not a good campaigner at this point and neither is Harris. However what the campaign will do is raise a gazillion dollars and run endless ads both touting his genuine achievements and attacking Trump who is very target-rich.
You seem to have confused the national popular vote with something that actually matters.
If it comes down to Biden vs trump I agree Biden will carry the majority on the national level by a solid percentage. Nobody quite knows anymore how big is a “landslide”, but anything closer than 70/30 ain’t one in my book. And noway nohow will US politics ever get that lopsided in the professional politician era.
But what decides the president is the EC, not the popular vote. And that result will be far closer, and far more R-leaning, than whatever the popular vote turns out to be. Maybe close enough to tip the EC result to trump despite the officially meaningless national popular vote going the other way.
It’s a total crapshoot right now. 75% of the country already thinks Biden is too old. He has deteriorated visibly from the 2020 election, and it’s not clear how sharp he will be a year from now.
On the other side, Trump might be in jail, his trials might illuminate something terrible enough for him to lose more Republican support. And he’s getting up there in age as well, and is not the guy he was in 2016.
I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance that one of the two will not make it to the Presidential election in some way, and a 25% chance that the election will be between two different people.
If it does go Trump vs Biden, I have no idea who will win. But I predict that the losing side will go absolutely apeshit crazy.
The word “certainly” above is a red flag for me. although one intensifier doesn’t invalidate a post.
I agree with you this much. In the Trump-Biden focus group articles I’ve seen, those voters still reject Trump. Problem is, they no longer can stomach Biden, mostly due to inflation.
Has Biden gained any support? Sure. Now there are Biden voters who were too young to vote in 2020. So there is a case on your side to be made.
Month after month, without exceptions, over the past year, the national rolling polling average are close to tied for Biden vs. Trump. And then I look and compare with 2019 and 2020, when Biden was consistently ahead of Trump:
As seen in my last link,Biden had big leads on Trump in almost every 2019 poll, with his average lead fluctuating between 7 points and 10 points. This year, month after month, about half go one way and half the other, with no ups and downs in rolling averages that ever overlap with the Biden rolling average advantages from four years before.
Maybe polled opinions are stable and evenly split because voters care so little about about the front-runners as to not yet have real preferences. Then they will rethink late next year. I hope so. But hope isn’t a predictive tool.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Hunter Biden won.
Who will lose to trump- in a landslide. Polls show only Biden has a chance.
This is not true.
And trump seems to be in worse health.
The inflation cycle has very little to do with the president. And inflation is actually quite low and getting lower.
True.
And I wish your comment had more to do with this thread than it probably does.
More terrible than what we already know?
The classic answer is probably – found in bed with a dead girl or live boy. But he’s getting old for that.
I don’t know where those numbers come from, but putting that aside:
Biden is more likely to drop out than Trump.
If Biden had a health setback, he’d mostly admit it, and that could lead to dropping out.
If Trump had a health setback, he’d do everything to hide it, and, if found out, still wouldn’t drop out.
Biden would likely accede if Barack Obama requested he drop out, especially if backed by other party leaders.
Trump? He cares nothing for the good opinion of GW Bush, and lacks party loyalty (in my book, one of his few good traits). Nothing will stop DJT from continuing his run if he has the slightest chance of regaining office to attempt a self-pardon.
In terms of who wins in 2024, Biden’s greater willingness to take advice from friends does give the Democrats a bit of a better chance of retaining the presidency (although I think 2024 will be a GOP year).
Barring the voters who turned eighteen since 2020, who has Trump gained? Who didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 but plans on voting for him in 2024? I seriously doubt there are a hundred people in the country who fit that description. Trump won’t get any votes in 2024 that he didn’t get in 2020. And Trump lost to Biden in 2020.
I doubt Trump will even meet the vote count he got in 2020. Some of his most devoted followers are now in prison. And I imagine at least a few of his 2020 supporters have become disillusioned. Some by his attempt to overthrow the government and some by his failure to overthrow the government.
Now I’ll agree that Biden has lost some support as well. There were a lot of conservative voters who were driven to support Biden by not wanting to see Trump re-elected. That will be a problem for Biden if he ends up running against DeSantis or one of the other Republicans. But if Trump gets the nomination, all of those reluctant voters will once again line up for Biden.
If inflation was a real problem, Fox News would be leading with that every night instead of rioting.
This isn’t about people who have suddenly decided on Trump as a new thing. This is about people who would have voted for him before had they voted. In other words, it’s about turnout.
I understand that. But who will turn out for Trump in 2024 that didn’t turn out for him in 2020? The person you’re describing is somebody who didn’t really have any strong opinions on Trump back when he was President but somehow has become a Trump follower in the last three years. Like I said, I doubt there are a hundred people who fit that description.