Yeah he does, but not with him, it’s back home.
The most recent FiveThirtyEight podcast/video ends with an important caveat: there is almost no correlation between midterm results and the presidential election two years later.
One does not predict the other! Demographic details regional trends, emerging potential candidates, issues… all that is important midterm data, but not overall results. Consider, for example, how poorly the Democrats did in the 2010 midterms, yet they cruised to victory in Obama’s 2012 reelection.
Yup – same happened with Clinton in 1994/1996 and Reagan in 1982/1984. Republicans had historically low losses in GHW Bush’s first midterm, yet he lost reelection. They gained seats in W’s first midterm, and he was reelected. There’s no predictive value in it. Two years is an eternity in politics, and the 2024 election is going to be fought over different issues and in a different political environment than today.
It appears Kari Lake, the vile ex-TV host, will lose the AZ governor’s race. Not over yet, but the numbers look bad for her. Lake is a genuinely evil human being, so cross your fingers.
If Katie Hobbs does end up winning this is a fairly significant polling error; Lake appeared to be up by two or three points, and is now losing by a point and a half, and may lose by over two.
This may be a crazy idea, but what if Joe bumps Kamala off the ticket in favor of a more moderate candidate that conservatives would feel comfortable with if Joe were to need to step down for health reasons. Personally I love Kamala, but conservatives hate her.
I feel like a Biden/Tim Ryan ticket would be much stronger against DeSantis or Trump.
I’d say not really; 3-4 points off is typical in any elections season; but you do have a point that this one was off a little more than most, this year. Further evidence of some voters wanting to move beyond Trump and his sycophants.
Historically, as the saying goes, “It’s the economy, stupid”. This means that the party out of power during economic bad times usually does very well.
Highest inflation in a generation. Stock market down. Wages not keeping up with said inflation. Shortages, conflict overseas, Covid.
It SHOULD have been a Red Wave. A Red TIDAL Wave! Republican leaders know this and that is why they are upset. They squelched the opportunity OF A GENERATION.
So yes, it might be a small Republican victory overall, but compared to what it should have been…
They are appalling to us. They are heroes to the bigots, racist and the gullible. The GOP lies a LOT (not that the Dems don’t stretch truth and bring in some skewed stats), take a look at Politifact. Crazy “Pants on Fire” lies that no sane or above average IQ person could believe- but people do believe those lies and spread them.
Not that the Progressives are not partly to blame- they came out with “Defund the Police” which is now (as I predicted) a GOP rallying cry.
Right- Right Wing Populist leaders are endemic- the UK, Israel, India, and many others. Brazil just dumped theirs, and the UKs new PM may be okay. The people want to be lied to. The news that is broadcast is 90% bad, and people are bombarded by it. So they seek a saviors. And a RW Populist will lie to them, and promise everything will be allright , and use a scapegoat for blame- POC, immigrants, the EU, etc. That is how RW Populism works. And when a RW Populist leader becomes a dictator = fascism. Putin is a good example.
At least I heard Oz conceded like a gentlemen.
Yes, that idea is crazy. Harris is doing okay. The polls show her as a strong choice.
You will never again see a Democratic Presidential ticket composed of two straight white men.
Well, hopefully. The problem is the very big batch of Election Day drop off votes. The largest number are in blueish Maricopa county which normally should favor Hobbs. However the Republicans were pushing their adherents to vote/drop off on Election Day, which definitely favors Lake. Kelly is probably safe in the Senate, but given the low number of votes separating them, Hobbs vs Lake is more chancy.
ETA: Rakich at 538 thinks Lake is likely to take it, but it’s close.
that is the way to bet, I agree.
I think that the Democrats need to think hard about why DeSantis won in a landslide. And the result of that thinking may come down to giving voters reassurance that Biden is against group preferences – starting with alumni child preferences – the AA for the rich – and also including race and gender.
But he would have to it verbally, not through the over the top and frankly nasty symbolism of replacing a Black woman with a white man.
Anyone on a Democratic ticket will be hated by Republicans and called a radical.
Harris IS moderate.
Naw, she is liberal, but hardly radical. Not even progressive.
Yes, but we pretty much know that they are not enough to win a general election as we’ve seen. Trump was politically unknown back then.
Desantis is still Maga, but savvy. He knows not to say the quiet part out loud and that makes him even more dangerous than Trump. That will allow independents to vote for him since he won’t be all out crazy. Add to that the constant attacks on Biden from the republican house.
We are in trouble in 2024.
They deserve to lose anyway. More precisely, America deserves for them to lose.
They deserve more than that. They are a global menace and I welcome their destruction. If Republicans are still in the business of creating their own realities I wish they’d get on with it and vanish from mine.
Gently bumping this thread from almost a year ago, because it’s interesting to see how much the overall picture has changed in that time. A year is an eternity in American politics.
For example, lots of comments like this:
(Not picking on you individually, just randomly choosing one example out of many.)
A year ago, everyone agreed DeSantis looked like a rising power. Now he looks like a dirty sock sitting damp and discarded in a roadside ditch, with zero prospects for a national coronation. Did anyone see that coming?
The only comments above that are fully borne out are the ones saying “it’s too far away and impossible to predict.”
And yet, prediction is fun. 
Anyone want to update their forecasts, taking into account the events of the last year?
MattGaetz? He is 35!
Who wins in 2024?
The Capitol police, I hope.